Man City and Chelsea's Holiday Form Creates New Betting Angles

Could the Blues miss out on a top-four finish, and are City poised to begin their typical winter winning streak under Pep Guardiola?

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

No Value in Top Four Betting

Our in-house projection model forecasts that both clubs will indeed finish in the top four this season.

Chelsea are projected to accumulate 67.7 points with a 65.1% likelihood of securing a Champions League position. Manchester City, with a slightly lower chance at 51.9%, are projected to earn 66.1 points.

This suggests that both Nottingham Forest, currently third in the league and boasting six wins with only one loss since December, and Newcastle, who have clinched victories in their last six outings across all competitions, could possibly miss out on fourth place.

Bookmakers strongly favor Chelsea and Manchester City to finish in the top four, with average odds of 1.36 and 1.44, respectively. This translates to an implied probability of 73.5% for Chelsea and 70% for Guardiola’s men.

Yet, given the recent struggles of both sides—City's solitary win out of 13 games between late October and 29 December —betting on either team to secure a top-four finish might not yield substantial returns. Therefore, alternative betting strategies might offer more lucrative opportunities.

Chelsea's Poor Game Management Could Prove Costly

Chelsea currently have eight more points than they did at this stage last season. However, last campaign saw the Blues excel in the latter half, collecting 41 points in Mauricio Pochettino's final 20 league matches, five points more than their current total after 20 games.

Since the Premier League began in 1992/1993, Chelsea have historically amassed the third-highest points total in December, with 327 points from 180 games. Although they've previously won 13 Boxing Day matches, this season they fell to Fulham 2-1, which casts doubt on their prospects.

Last year’s festive period was favorable for Chelsea, as they secured nine out of a possible 12 points. Even after a summer of significant player changes, if Chelsea revert to their average performance levels—either 1.72 projected points or the 1.4 they averaged in their first 20 games in the 2023/2024 season—they might end this campaign with 64 points. This total might not be sufficient to secure a top-four finish.

Betting on Maresca's team to miss out on a top-four finish could offer better value, with average odds of 3.4 and an implied probability of 29.4%..

City's Winter Performance Could Enhance Their Prospects

As for the reigning champions, could this be the onset of another famous mid-season winning streak? Currently sixth in the table, City continue to show defensive weaknesses, particularly in transition—evident as West Ham registered 17 shots and an expected goals (xG) value of 1.53 against them.

However, signs of resurgence are budding for the Citizens. In their 4-1 win against the Hammers, Guardiola deployed the same starting eleven for consecutive matches for only the second time in three years. Erling Haaland netted his first Premier League brace since September, while Savinho's return to form has led him to contributing goals and assists in two consecutive games.

Manchester City have consistently dominated the league during the winter months. From December 10th onward last season, they remained unbeaten, losing just eight points across 22 Premier League matches.

In 2022/2023 they lost just ten points between December's end and May 2023, and in 2021/2022 they won 13 out of 17 matches from January onward.

Our projection model grants Manchester City a mere 7.4% chance of finishing in the top two, averaging 1.77 points per game moving forward. Arsenal are projected to finish above Manchester City by nine points, still, wagering on Guardiola's squad to finish as runners-up could be a wise decision. Moreover, City will host Chelsea on January 25th before traveling to face Arsenal the following weekend.

Should City's recent good form continue, and if their past winter unbeaten streaks are anything to rely on, backing Pep Guardiola's side to finish in second place could prove to be a savvy decision, particularly at such high odds.