How Bettors Can Navigate the Goals Trend of the New Champions League Format

UEFA’s new model aims to eliminate the predictability that often plagued the old group stage, where top teams could almost always be expected to advance.

But will this new format lead to an increase in the number of goals, particularly during the group stage?

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Every goal counts more than ever

The opening matches of the 2024/2025 Champions League season offer early insights into how the new format impacts goal scoring.

With 36 matches played and 115 goals netted, the goals-per-match average stands at 3.19, a clear uptick from last season's 3.08 average over 96 group-stage games.

The Swiss-style format introduces a wider array of opponents, often resulting in mismatches where stronger clubs face weaker sides.

This disparity is evident in decisive outcomes like Bayern Munich's 9-2 dismantling of Dinamo Zagreb and Borussia Dortmund's 7-1 victory over Celtic, echoing high-scoring contests such as PSG's 7-1 triumph over the Scottish champions in the 2017-18 season.

Crucially, the risk of elimination during the league phase diminishes, as securing just seven points might suffice to finish 25th and earn a spot in the playoffs.

This reduced jeopardy allows teams greater tactical freedom, likely leading to more open games and aggressive play styles in pursuit of points.

The potential for fewer meaningless matches—where teams are already assured qualification or elimination—might foster more competitive and goal-laden encounters.

Significantly, the format emphasises securing a spot among the top eight for automatic progression, adding layers of incentive.

Goal differential becomes vital, not merely for advancement but for favourable seeding in the knockout stage.

With only eight games to play, the possibility of teams finishing level on points and goal difference is high. Therefore, the second and third tiebreakers—most goals scored and most away goals—further motivate teams to attack in game up the very end.

New League Stage is goalscorers’ territory

High-scoring group stages are not new to the Champions League.

Paris Saint-Germain's 25-goal feat during the 2017-18 group stage remains a benchmark, underscoring that elite teams can achieve prolific scoring across various formats.

Last season, Manchester City netted 18 goals in the group stage, averaging three per game, while Atlético Madrid followed closely with 17. Red Bull Salzburg, the lowest-scoring team, managed just four goals.

This highlights an essential truth in elite European football: only a few teams pose little threat.

Indeed, after just two match days this season, only four teams—Young Boys, Red Bull Salzburg, Bologna, and Shakhtar—have yet to score, though their collective expected goals (xG) stand at 6.4.

While the new format promises excitement and unpredictability, it faces its share of criticism.

Some contend that the expanded league phase dilutes the tournament's quality, widening the gap between top and bottom teams and potentially rendering some fixtures redundant.

However, a key objective of the new format is to offer a fairer competitive landscape, encouraging mid-tier teams to aim higher.

Initial results indicate a narrowing gap between the top and bottom seeds. Notably, teams like Aston Villa and Stade Brestois have already secured significant victories, challenging traditional power dynamics and hinting at a more competitive environment.

In conclusion, early indicators suggest that the revamped Champions League format could lead to an increase in goals during the group stage.

Diverse opposition, strategic motivations inspired by a new competitive landscape, and a focus on goal differential are vital factors driving this potential surge.

However, it remains early in the competition, and broader trends will become evident only as the tournament progresses.