Confronted with another challenging campaign, the 72-year-old tactician, known for his pragmatic approach and mid-season interventions, could offer promising prospects for those who want to back the Giallorossi.
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
A safe pair of hands
Dubbed "Sir Claudio" after leading Leicester City to a historic Premier League win, Ranieri is no stranger to turning struggling teams around. His best moments with Roma came during the 2009-2010 season, where he led the club to a second-place finish behind Inter Milan.
In nearly 100 games with the Giallorossi, Ranieri boasts an impressive winning record of 55.21%, second only to his stint with AS Monaco.
Roma are currently suffering from a -58.3% return on investment (ROI) for bettors placing level-stakes wagers on them this season.
In stark contrast, Ranieri’s track record suggests he is capable of stabilising teams, often steering them to safety and beyond—most notably, revitalising Sampdoria in 2019.
Tasked to lift the Blucerchiati from the bottom after seven games, Ranieri defied bookmakers’ odds, guiding Sampdoria to safety with four games to spare. His tenure was marked by several underdog victories against SPAL, Torino, and Udine, along with a derby win over Genoa.
Survival secured in 2020 set the stage for a successful 2020/2021 campaign, during which Sampdoria became the second most profitable team in the 1X2 betting market, boasting a ROI of 30.7% on their wins at level stake.
When it comes to Roma, bettors might expect value in specific markets, such as draws and low-scoring outcomes.
Last season, Ranieri's 3-5-2 formation at Cagliari led the newly-promoted Sardinians to safety in Serie A, supported by a high number of draws (12).
Given Roma’s defensive struggles this season, this could be a smart strategy with Ranieri at the helm.
Focusing on stability and defence
Historically, the former Leicester City manager has employed a variety of formations, ranging from the solid 4-4-2 to a more fluid 4-2-3-1.
Versatility is what makes Ranieri an appealing choice for Roma, who are seeking stability and direction.
The Italian's preference for a structured, defensively sound setup suggests a shift towards a lower block with efficient transitions. Ranieri is taking over a squad abundant in talent but lacking cohesion.
A key factor in addressing the team’s imbalance will be the repositioning of experienced players like World Cup winner Matt Hummels, who has played only 29 minutes thus far.
In last season's Champions League, Hummels averaged 4.08 blocks per game and 1.92 interceptions, which places him in the top 1st and 5th percentiles, respectively, among defenders in Europe’s elite competitions.
Hummel’s inclusion could bolster a back line that has conceded 17 times this season and underperformed its expected goals against (xGA) metric by 2.31.
Ranieri’s opening fixture is an immediate test, with Roma travelling to Serie A leaders Napoli.
AS Roma have recently benefited from managerial changes, winning two consecutive league matches after Ivan Juric took charge in September and experiencing a similar bounce when Daniele De Rossi replaced Jose Mourinho last season.
However, Roma’s poor record against Napoli—one win in the last nine games, with no away triumphs since March 2018—coupled with Ranieri’s challenging history against Antonio Conte (two wins, eight defeats), creates a complex betting scenario.
Looking forward, our in-house prediction tool forecasts that Roma will finish ninth in Serie A this season with 54 points, which is a notable drop from the past three seasons when they consistently finished sixth with 63 points.
Data suggests that while breaking into the top six may be difficult, with a current probability of 4.6%, the rest of the season could yield better results, averaging 1.57 points and 1.46 goals per game.
This indicates not only a potential improvement in the standings, but also a more stable form that bettors can factor into their evaluations.