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Why You Should Bet Against Goals in Liverpool League Games

Why You Should Bet Against Goals in Liverpool League Games

The German revitalised the Reds, restoring them to their former glory as a powerhouse in European football after years of obscurity. 

Arne Slot faced a daunting challenge of succeeding Jurgen Klopp, and he’s off to a fantastic start. Liverpool are top of the Premier League after 10 matches, and are coasting in the Champions League. But how does Slot’s team differ from his predecessors? Our expert has analysed the data and assessed the betting markets ahead of Liverpool’s game against Brighton.

Premier League Market

Odds

Liverpool vs Aston Villa - Under 3.5 Goals

4/6

Southampton vs Liverpool - Under 3.5 Goals

8/11

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Liverpool Embrace a Patient Approach

Liverpool are seeing more action in the deeper zones of the field under Arne Slot. Last season, 7% of their touches came inside their own penalty area. This has increased to 11% in the current season. However, the Reds look just as menacing and could benefit from this approach.

Jurgen Klopp was chasing an unprecedented quadruple last season, however, the team lost momentum and managed to secure only the EFL Cup. As Klopp consistently demanded high intensity from his players, fatigue was often a problem. Under the legendary German, counter-pressing and quick attacks was the cornerstone of Liverpool’s game.

Remaining patient in possession is new for this Liverpool side. Mohamed Salah acknowledged the differences when speaking to the club’s official site earlier in the season. He discussed how having possession allows more time to maintain control and circulate the ball.

The league leaders still have one of the most fearsome attacks in the league. Only three teams have scored more Premier League goals than Slot’s side heading into matchday 11. However, there has been a dropoff in goals compared to last season. Liverpool are averaging 1.9 goals per league game, a 0.36 decrease from the last campaign. 

A Solid Defence Offsets the Dropoff in Attack

Liverpool may not be as formidable in attack, but their more patient strategy has significantly enhanced their defensive stability. Jurgen Klopp's team was famous for its fast-paced, energetic football. It was certainly worth its weight in goals, but the Reds' midfielder plays with more control this season

Ryan Gravenberch is the man who has benefited most from Arne Slot’s Liverpool shakeup. The midfielder was a peripheral figure under Klopp last season, however, he’s well-equipped to be Slot’s deepest midfield player in the team’s new 4-2-3-1 formation. 

Gravenberch has made the second-most passes in the Liverpool squad this season, making him an integral part of the patient build-up. The Dutchman has also made an average of 1.9 tackles per 90 minutes played, showcasing his ability to quash opposition attacks.

With a solid midfield base, the Reds have conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League this season, averaging 0.6 goals per game, which is 0.40 fewer than both Manchester City and Arsenal, their title rivals.

Punters can benefit from Liverpool’s more calculated approach to the game, by backing under 3.5 goals in their upcoming league fixtures.

Last season, there was an average of 3.34 goals when Liverpool took to the field in the Premier League. This has dropped to 2.50 in the current campaign. There have been three goals or less in nine of their 10 league games ahead of the meeting with Aston Villa on Saturday.