Avoid the Azzurri: Five reasons to avoid backing Italy to secure back-to-back Euro 2024 triumph

The Azzurri headed into this summer’s tournament as reigning champions after beating England on penalties three years ago.

They still boast a number of quality players in their squad with the likes of Jorginho, Gianluigi Donnarumma and Federico Chiesa being the main men for Luciano Spalletti’s side.

However, the Azzurri’s odds are probably slightly too low for how good Italy are, with our expert here to take you through exactly why you should be avoiding them with your Euro 2024 outright bets going forward.

Italy Euro 2024 Odds

Odds correct at time of publishing. Courtesy of Sky Bet and subject to change.

Back-to-Back Winners Unlikely

Only once in the history of the Euros has a team won the tournament back-to-back, with this being Spain in 2008 and 2012, with this side being regarded by many as the best of all time.

The likes of Portugal, France and Germany have all failed to retain their crown after winning it, with it proving extremely difficult to do so given how much can change over a four-year period.

Italy’s squad isn’t at the level needed to go back to back this year, and when you consider theirs is nowhere near the likes of Spain in ‘08 and ‘12, their 16/1 odds to win the Euros look a fair price.

Holders Have Habit of Struggling

As has been the case with international tournaments for some time now, the reigning champions often tend to struggle in the next tournament they compete in.

Obvious cases of this are France in the 2002 World Cup, Italy in 2010 and Germany in 2018, who all went out in the groups after winning the previous edition of the tournament.

This has also proven to be the case for the Euros, with Portugal going out in the round of 16 in 2021 after winning Euro 2016, whilst Germany finished bottom of their Euro 2000 group after winning 1996.

Elsewhere, Greece did the same in 2008 after winning Euro 2004, whilst France went out in the first knockout round at the same tournament after winning it four years prior.

Inexperienced Squad a Cause for Concern

Italy have a very inexperienced squad at international level, with the likes of Chiellini, Bonucci, Barzagli and Immobile all no longer available for selection.

Their most capped player is Donnarumma with 62, with only 11 of their 26 players at the tournament having more than 20 caps to their name at current.

This pales in comparison to the likes of Croatia (18/26), France (15/26) and Portugal (17/26), all teams Italy will have to face or could face if they were to go all the way and win.

Experience is a trait that can’t be taught, with this proving to be a key factor when it comes to the latter stages of the tournament, something Italy had in abundance with the likes of Bonucci, Chiellini and Buffon in previous tournaments.

Group of Death a Big Threat

It’s fair to say Italy are in this tournament’s ‘Group of Death’, with the Azzurri paired with three-times winners Spain and 2018 World Cup finalists Croatia in group C.

They’ll most likely finish second given how strong Spain have looked so far, with this giving them a harder draw in the Round of 16 and thus giving them a more difficult route to the final.

Their match against Spain on Thursday will essentially determine who finishes top of their group, with Italy then needing to get a result against Croatia in their final, something that won’t be an easy feat given the Croat’s place at the tournament will be at stake.

Second Place Finish Offers Tougher Route

Italy finishing second in their group wouldn’t be the end of the world, however it would put them in the second half of the bracket come the knockout stages.

They would most likely have a run of Switzerland, England and France on their way to the final providing the last two teams win their group and the Swiss finish second.

This would be a nightmare run for Italy, who would need to beat both of the tournament favourites to reach the final, with the likes of Spain, Germany or Portugal expected to be waiting for them once there.