Europa League Winners Atalanta Are Good Value For Champions League Top 8

Their prospects for advancing deep into the tournament have never been as promising as this season.

Following their Europa League triumph in May, "La Dea" have continued to exhibit flair, resilience, and tactical brilliance.

They join Inter Milan and Legia Warszawa (in the Conference League) as the only teams yet to concede in European competition this season.

Though Gian Piero Gasperini’s side currently sits ninth in the league phase, they present an intriguing opportunity for bettors aiming to capitalize on their potential direct qualification to the Round of 16.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Rewriting history

For Europa League winners, converting success from Europe's secondary competition to the Champions League has proven challenging over the past five seasons.

Notably, no Europa League champion has topped their Champions League group recently. Under Unai Emery's guidance, Villarreal was the only team to surpass the Round of 16 by, reaching the semi-finals in the 2021-22 season.

Other Europa League holders, such as Chelsea, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Sevilla, have faltered, unable sometimes to even progress beyond group stages, as demonstrated by Sevilla’s performance last season.

For the Bergamaschi, securing a top-eight finish would not only surpass expectations but also solidify their status as an emerging club in European football.

Not fancied by the bookmakers

With high odds for a top-eight finish, Atalanta stands among Europe's giants. Yet, bookmakers rank 13 teams as more likely to bypass the playoff route.

Nonetheless, several of these favored clubs, including Manchester City, Arsenal, and AC Milan, are currently trailing Atalanta in the 36-team table.

While daunting fixtures against Real Madrid and Barcelona loom, the path also features winnable matches against struggling sides. These include Young Boys, who possess the third-worst defense in the competition, and Sturm Graz, the second-lowest-ranked club when the league phase group draw was made back in August.

Goals from many sources

Atalanta's current Serie A status—boasting the league’s best attack with 34 goals—reflects a squad performing well within its capabilities.

Their points tally, closely aligned with expected points (xP), confirms they aren't exceeding expectations but rather delivering consistent and sustainable performances.

"La Dea’s" attacking style isn't just a matter of frontline firepower; it's a harmonious system orchestrated by the club's wing-backs, Ruggeri and Bellanova, and a midfield significantly contributing 12 goals in total.

The best might be yet to come

Injuries to key players and the ongoing transfer market led Atalanta to a slow start, with three defeats and just one victory in their first four games. However, since mid-September, Gian Piero Gasperini’s men have been nearly unstoppable, winning 11 out of 14 games.

Against Arsenal and Celtic at home, they missed several significant scoring opportunities, reflected in their overall xG underperformance of 3.4, which could have secured them deserved victories.

Mateo Retegui and Ademola Lookman, currently leading the scoring charts with 12 and 9 goals respectively, embody Atalanta’s attacking character. Moreover, the gradual reintroduction of key players from injury, such as summer signing Nicolò Zaniolo and defender Giorgio Scalvini, suggests an upward trajectory.

The anticipated February return of last season's top scorer, Gianluca Scamacca, adds yet another promising component to their campaign.

Why They Represent Value

Our in-house projection model places Atalanta as the 12th most likely team to finish in the top eight—a ranking heavily influenced by competitors like AC Milan, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Arsenal facing relatively simpler fixtures.

However, Atalanta are currently the team that have allowed less shots on target (five) in the competition.

Nevertheless their 31% chance of a top-eight finish, as indicated by our projections, surpasses the implied probability suggested by their betting odds (25%), highlighting them as an enticing value choice for astute bettors.