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Napoli vs Liverpool Predictions: Champions League Week 1 Odds & Best Bets

09:00 WAT 04/09/2022
Roberto Firmino Liverpool Newcastle 2022-23
Last season's runners-up in the Champions League kick off their campaign in Italy where a hostile atmosphere surely awaits

Napoli have been one of the top teams in Serie A for the last few years. They’re back in UCL after failing to qualify in 2020-2021. The last time they were here was in the 2019-2020 campaign, when they got to the Round of 16 before losing to Barcelona.

Liverpool will try to go on another deep run in the Champions League after falling short in the final against Real Madrid last year. They’ve drawn a pretty tough group that includes Ajax, Napoli, and Rangers.

Let’s take a look at the best bets and odds for the upcoming matchup between Liverpool and Napoli.

Frank Ammirante’s 2022-23 Overall Soccer Betting Record: 7-5 (+1.55 units)

Napoli vs Liverpool Odds

  • 3-Way Handicap: Napoli (+280) | Draw (+270) | Liverpool (-111)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 ( -154) | Under 2.5 (+110)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (-167) | No (+120)

Napoli vs Liverpool odds are current as of Friday, Sept. 2, at 11:30 a.m. ET on BetMGM Sportsbook.

Liverpool are slight favorites in this match despite playing on the road, demonstrating how they’re clearly considered as the better team here. We have some value on the Under 2.5 at +110 odds, but it’s a bit risky due to the firepower on both sides.

There’s a bit more value at +120 on both teams not to score. This gives you another out in case one side scores more than two goals.

Napoli vs Liverpool Betting Tips

Both sides are hobbling

Liverpool are dealing with injuries to Naby Keïta, Diogo Jota, Thiago Alcântara, and Jordan Henderson right now. The good news is that Thiago and Jota are expected to return soon. It’s also helpful that the team added Brazilian midfielder Arthur Melo on a loan from Juventus.

At the same time, Arthur still needs to adapt to his new club, while Jota and Thiago may not be at top form immediately upon returning from injury. We saw this team need to score in the 98th minute in a comeback home victory over Newcastle.

They’re clearly not at their peak at the moment.

On the other hand, Napoli are off to a solid start in Serie A, unbeaten in their first four matches with two wins against Hellas Verona and AC Monza along with two draws to Fiorentina and Lecce. The bad news is that they lost midfielder Fabián Ruiz to Paris Saint-Germain this past week.

Both clubs are currently trying to adapt to new players while withstanding the loss of previous starters. It makes for an interesting matchup in Group A where we could see a close one.

Napoli vs Liverpool Prediction

Napoli 1-1 Liverpool

Both sides are not at their best right now. With home-field advantage, Napoli should be able to at least keep it close, especially considering Liverpool’s midfield that’s currently in transition.

Liverpool would likely be content with a draw on the road here.

Napoli vs Liverpool Best Bets

➕ Under 2.5 Goals (+110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 unit

We like the value in getting the Under at plus money, even though both teams have the ability to really fill up the scoresheet. Since we’re projecting a draw here due to the current state of both clubs, the Under looks like a good play. This match has 1-1 written all over it.

➕ Match Result: Draw (+270) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 unit

It’s tough to back Liverpool on the road in a hostile environment here, especially against one of the top teams in Italy. I’m expecting Napoli to put forth a strong effort here, but ultimately, it’s not enough to secure three points. I love the value on the draw at +270 odds.