Our expert believes the Rojiblancos' superb home record will see them record a comfortable win over the Rossoneri
Paddy Power price them at 1/2 (1.50) to claim a win on the night, while AC Milan are offered at 11/2 (6.50) to become only the second side since May of last year to win at Atleti's stadium.
Atletico, though, concede few goals - particularly in their own back yard - and with the bonus of an away goal they know that it will take something truly special to prevent them from progessing.
Should they get the first goal it could be a definitive blow to the Rossoneri, whose confidence is fragile at best.
Milan were beaten at Udinese at the weekend and backing them to lose again looks to be the way forward.
Atletico are offered at 6/5 (2.20) to win with a -1 goal handicap and that looks like an intelligent way to oppose the visitors.
This bet has paid out in all of Atleti's home matches in the Champions League so far this season as well as in ten of their home games in all competitions and, with Milan conceding regularly, backing a home win by at least two goals looks like a wise move.
|Atletico Madrid to win with a -1 goal handicap at 6/5 (2.20) 2.0pt stake with Paddy Power|
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports journalist and TV presenter in Madrid