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The surprise package still have a chance of qualifying but will need a result against the talented South Americans...


Kick-Off: Thursday, June 24, 16:00 CET.
Peter Mokaba Stadium, Polokwane.

Group F remains delicately poised as we enter today's final round of games. Paraguay are in the driving seat and need only to avoid defeat today to reach the last 16. New Zealand have been the feel good story of the World Cup and must win to continue their fairytale adventure.

Paraguay earned a point against Italy before a comfortable 2-0 win over Slovakia. Although a point will send the South Americans through, a victory is preferable as they will then more than likely avoid the Netherlands in the next round.

New Zealand have an outstanding strike rate in the tournament. Three shots on target - two goals. You'll hear all the familiar cliches of the Oceanic team being dogged, will give 110% etc. Only the woodwork denied them an even more incredible result against the world champions and they will fancy their chances today of another upset.

Paraguay Tips
The bookies are being a tad too optimistic on Paraguay's chances today as they are 1.42 to win. Keep your eye on the in-play as last night Germany stretched out to 2.05 before beating Ghana. New Zealand will make it difficult for them so your better bet is to look at Paraguay winning the second half, which is priced at 1.70. If you fancy them to win the first half, the price stretches out to 1.88.

New Zealand Tips
The All Whites helped the bookmakers to clean up after their heroic draw with the Azzurri. With nothing to lose and everything to gain today expect them to charge at their opponents from the off. New Zealand scored in the seventh minute against Italy and are 3.75 to open the scoring again today. You'll get odds of 4.40 for the first goal to come in the opening 10 minutes.

Betting Verdict

Stringing three consecutive good results together is likely to be beyond even the All Whites. For value look at over 2.5 goals at 2.09 as Paraguay will surely want to win the game to avoid Holland while New Zealand have shown they can score at the most unlikely of moments. Unlike the turgid opening games, we haven't seen a single goalless draw in the closing matches so far. Three of the eight final games have had over 2.5 goals as there is generally a greater emphasis on attack.

Outside Value Bet

Double Chance on New Zealand/Draw at 2.75. All the All Whites need to do is avoid defeat and you'll be in the money here. It's risky, but then again so was backing the All Whites against Italy and plenty of (Kiwi) punters made money there.

Match Odds: Paraguay 1.42, Draw 4.30, New Zealand 8.60

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Odds correct at time of publication. Goal.com encourages all readers who bet to do so sensibly.

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