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Phil Kitromilides explains why Holland are overpriced at 10/11 to get on the scoresheet in the opening 45 minutes against a Brazil team that have been conceding early goals

In theory, this is the match that nobody wants to play, yet for Brazil it could prove to be a blessing, giving Felipe Scolari's men a chance to take a small step back from the humiliating brink they were thrust towards by their semi-final destruction by Germany.

Netherlands, meanwhile, with a youthful and inexperienced squad never expected to get this far, so once they get over the agonising penalty kick loss to Argentina, the Dutch should be able to go out and enjoy themselves.

Paddy Power offer the hosts at 13/10 (2.30) while Holland can be backed at 2/1 (3.00) and the draw is priced at 12/5 (3.40).

With the pressure off for both teams we could be in for an entertaining game and one which the bookmakers certainly think will be full of goals.

Over 2.5 goals is on at 4/7 (1.57) with goals at both ends priced at just 1/2 (1.50).

The latter, especially, may well attract attention from some punters happy to back shorter prices, yet for our purposes a more intelligent selection is necessary.

While Brazil may have more motivation for the game, Holland remain a potent attacking threat particularly on the break.

Against Argentina they were supremely defensive, concerning themselves almost exclusively with neutralising the threat of Lionel Messi to the detriment of their attacking play.

Expect that to change drastically against Brazil and for Louis van Gaal to adopt a far more offensive approach, similar to that deployed in the early part of the tournanment.

All this means that the price of 10/11 (1.91) for Holland to score in the first half looks extremely attractive, especially considering that Brazil have conceded first half goals in four of their six matches at the tournament.

BET
OF THE
DAY
VALUE BET
Holland to score in the first half at 10/11 (1.91) for a 3pt stake with Paddy Power

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Phil Kitromilides is a sports journalist and TV presenter in Madrid

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