Phil Kitromilides explains why the price of 13/2 for Vicente Del Bosque's side to win a fourth consecutive major trophy offers value for money in the World Cup outright marketThis month's World Cup promises to be a festival of football in the most vibrant of surroundings.
|World Cup Winner
|Odds from bet365
The host nation are the clear favourites to lift the trophy for a sixth time with bet365 pricing Brazil at 11/4 (3.75).
Home advantage could be an important factor, with Brazilians amongst the most passionate football fans in the world.
But there could be a negative side to playing at home, with the overwhelming weight of expectation and the tag of favourites set to heap pressure on Luis Felipe Scolari's side, and failure to hit the ground running would only see that pressure mount.
This is far from a vintage Brazil squad; supremely solid in defence, yet lacking something when it comes to forward play.
Overly reliant on Neymar who has had a frustrating season, it would be difficult to invest in
Brazil as winners, even more so when you consider that they are likely to play either Spain, Holland or Chile in the last 16.
Argentina are the second favourites at 9/2 (5.50) and they seem a more appealing prospect. The Albiceleste are likely to have massive support and boast the most dangerous forward line in the international game.
If Alejandro Sabella can get them defending well, then they could have a real chance especially given their relatively straight forward looking draw.
Next in the betting come Germany at 6/1 (7.00) with Joachim Low's squad possessing a nice balance of youth and exeprience.
Defending champions Spain, meanwhile, are offered at the extremely healthy looking price of 13/2 (7.50) which seems generous given their status as the undisputed best team of the last six years.
Vicente del Bosque's squad relies heavily on those who lifted the trophy four years ago but there is something to be said for continuity, and the experience gained from those previous tournaments together will be invaluable.
While punters looking for real value might be tempted by the price of 25/1 (26.00) for Italy or even 33/1 (34.00) for the Netherlands, one could argue that the odds offered for Spain represent a better value bet.
All but the most patriotic punter will discount England at 28/1 (29.00), with their Group D opponents and current champions of South America, Uruguay perhaps more tempting at the same price.
It is not easy to win a major tournament. It requires great focus and huge strength of character. Spain have both of those attributes in abundance, as well as a staggering array of talent. Furthermore, there is little pressure on them to succeed as not much is expected of them. That is precisely why they should be
backed at 13/2 (7.50) a price that will only shorten once the tournament starts.
|Spain to win the World Cup at 13/2 (7.50) for a 2.0pt stake with bet365