Marc Wilmots' men are being heavily tipped to go far in the finals, with a strong young squad heading to Brazil. With eight wins and two draws in their World Cup qualifying campaign, overcoming Croatia, Wales and Serbia, it's no surprise they are being backed for glory, although the merits of continuing to back them at around 18/1 (19.00) for the tournament can be questioned.
The Red Devils come into this match without a win in their last four matches. The Belgian's were held 1-1 in their final qualifying game against Wales, with Wilmots' side following this result with two losses in friendlies against Colombia and Japan, before drawing with Ivory Coast in March. Bet365 price them at just 1/25 (1.04) to win here.
Luxembourg, despite finishing bottom in their qualifying group, performed maybe better than expected, finishing with six points from their 10 matches. Luc Holtz's troops beat Northern Ireland 3-2 last September, also picking up three draws along the way in the reverse fixture against Northern Ireland, and Azerbaijan twice.
It's also worth noting they took the lead against Portugal back in qualifying, before Ronaldo and Postiga set the record straight. Bet365 price them at 40/1 (41.00) to win, with the same firm pricing the draw at 12/1 (13.00).
Looking at the markets, Belgium are way to short to back in the outright match odds, as well as the handicap and half time/full time markets, especially given their form has dipped a little in recent months.
Instead, it's worth looking at the goals market. Despite Belgium facing a lowly opponent and plenty of goalmouth action anticipated by the bookmakers, the under 3.5 goals bet at 13/8 (2.63) stands out with bet365.
In Belgium's last seven friendlies, they have only managed to score three or more goals in one of those matches. With Luxembourg struggling to score goals but often providing some stiff resistance against more illustrious opposition, it's worth concentrating on how many goals the Red Devils will score.
With Wilmots keen to try out new formations to make sure he knows his strongest team before the World Cup, expect Belgium to score and win, but not to humiliate Luxembourg in the process.
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|Under 3.5 goals for a 1pt stake at 13/8 (2.63) with bet365
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