Los Blancos assistant coach Paul Clement insisted on Saturday night that they would be treating the tie as if it were still 0-0, the Englishman admitted that scoring an away goal rivals could kill the tie.
It is hard to disagree, given that if Madrid get one goal, Atletico would then need to score five, making Diego Simeone's men rank outisders.
Furthermore, injury and suspension have deprived the Rojiblancos of first-choice goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois as well as Diego Costa and David Villa.
Paddy Power price Atleti at 16/1 (17.00) to qualify for their second successive Copa del Rey final, while offering them at a slightly less extravagant price of 19/10 (2.90) to win on the night.
The visitors, for their part, are offered at 7/5 (2.40) to record another victory, with the draw available at 12/5 (3.40).
The first goal, as mentioned, will be crucial; if it falls to Atletico they will be given a modicum of hope; if Madrid get it then the tie is over.
At any rate, do not to expect Madrid to sit back and defend their lead, with Carlo Ancelotti expected to field an extremely strong line-up, including Cristiano Ronaldo, available to play despite being in the middle of a La Liga suspension.
Backing Madrid to score two or more goals at 11/10 (2.10) is worthy of consideration, with los Blancos hitting some decent scoring form.
As well and Ronaldo, the likes of Jese, Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema are contributing and Madrid look extremely threatening in the final third.
This bet has paid out in 10 of the last 13 Madrid derbies, including los Blancos' last three visits to the Calderon and could offer some excellent value for punters.
|Real Madrid to score over 1.5 goals at 11/10 (2.10) 2.5pt stake with Paddy Power|
Sign up with Paddy Power for a up to £250 in free bets and back Phil's selection for this match
Phil Kitromilides is a sports journalist and TV presenter in Madrid