Our betting statistician explains where he thinks the value lies backing draws across Europe's top leagues this weekendWell, once again last weekend we drew another blank with none of our selections ending a draw, meaning we seem to have hit a bit of a dry run. However, as we have seen in the past, this can soon turn around very quickly. So, let’s hope it begins this weekend.
Each week I will present up to three selections a week from the top four European Leagues. Meaning that you only need one of the three games to end level to show a profit. Please remember that you are backing the draw and losing runs are inevitable, so keep stakes reasonable.
This weekend our selections come from the Premier League, the Bundesliga and Serie A.
On Saturday, we begin in the Premier League, where Crystal Palace are hosting West Bromwich Albion in a vital relegation battle. There is no doubt that since Tony Pulis took over at Crystal Palace the south Londoner’s form has improved, with Palace having won five of their last 11 league games.
West Bromwich Albion are also under new stewardship and since Pepe Mel took over three gamers ago the Baggies have recorded two very good draws against high-flying Liverpool and Everton. This looks as though it will be a hard-fought affair and with West Brom having drawn five of their last 8 league games, the draw can be backed at 9/4 (3.25) with bet365.
Although Palace have only drawn one of their last 13 league games, they have been level at the break in six of their last seven league games. The half-time draw can be backed at 21/20 (2.05) with bet365 and, again, this looks to offer value.
Our next game takes us to Germany, where out-of-form Hamburg host mid-table Hertha Berlin. The two sides have played out a stalemate in two of their last three head-to-head matches at Hamburg and Jos Luhukay’s Berlin side have drawn five of their last 10 when travelling to teams of Hamburg’s grading.
Here, the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40) with bet365 and this certainly looks to offer some value.
Finally, we go over to Italy, where on Sunday struggling Livorno take on Genoa, and there are some strong trends in this match. When facing teams of Genoa’s grading, Livorno have drawn three of their last six home matches. Also, when Genoa have visited the bottom sides, five of their last 10 away games have also ended in a stalemate.
With both of the last two head-to-head matches at Livorno being drawn the 11/5 (3.20) offered on the draw with bet365 looks a solid selection. However, there is also value in the half-time draw where Genoa have been level at the break in an amazing 10 of their last 11 away games visiting the bottom six sides. The half-time draw can be backed at 21/20 (2.05) with bet365 and this looks one of the bets of the weekend.
Crystal Palace v West Brom – Draw @ 9/4 (3.25) bet365
Hamburg v Hertha Berlin – Draw @ 12/5 (3.40) bet365
Livorno v Genoa– Draw @ 11/5 (3.20) bet365
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