Our betting statistician explains where he thinks the value lies backing draws across Europe's top leagues this weekendLast weekend was a tough one and none of our three selections ended up level. Let us hope for some better fortune this week.
Each week I will present up to three selections a week from the top four European Leagues. Meaning that you only need one of the three games to end level to show a profit. Please remember that you are backing the draw and losing runs are inevitable so keep stakes reasonable.
This weekend our selections come from the Premier League and the Italian Serie A.
On Saturday we begin in the Premier League where new Cardiff boss Ole Gunner Solskjaer is still looking to record his first league victory since taking over the Welsh side three games ago. After a mid-week defeat at Old Trafford Cardiff now sit on the bottom of the table and this weekend they host a resilient looking Norwich side who recorded a home draw against Newcastle on Tuesday night.
When facing the bottom sides Chris Hughton’s Norwich have become draw specialists and their recent away record reads won two, drawn five and lost three. Indeed, they have also been level at the break in six of these nine matches and the half time draw can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) with bet365. Otherwise the draw can be backed at 9/4 (3.25) with bet365.
For our next selection we move over to Serie A, where on Saturday we have a bottom of the table clash when Bologna host an Udinese side that are certainly not showing the good form of recent seasons. When looking at both sides’ last 10 respective home and away matches against similar opposition, we see that eight of the 20 matches have ended all square.
Also, five of the last eight meetings between the two sides have ended a stalemate and the draw can be backed at 21/10 (3.10). Again the half time draw also looks of interest as this has been seen in six of Udinese’s last nine away games to teams of Bologna’s grading. The half time draw can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) with bet365 and this looks to offer some good value.
Finally, on Sunday we stay in Italy for a derby in which Genoa host Sampdoria in the Luigi Ferraris Stadium. It should be noted that this ground is shared by the two teams so the environment will not be alien to the away side.
When facing teams of Sampdoria’s grading recently, Genoa have drawn 11 of their last 20 home matches. Whilst Sampdoria have drawn three of their last five matches at this venue.
The only negative here is that there has only been one draw in the two teams last 10 meetings. However, at 11/5 (3.20) with bet365 the draw is still worthy given the above stats.
Cardiff v Norwich – Draw @ 9/4 (3.25) with bet365
Bologna v Udinese – Draw @ 21/10 (3.10) with bet365
Genoa v Sampdoria – Draw @ 11/5 (3.20) with bet365
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