Our man in the Spanish capital believes that the visitors can score over 2.5 goals against the division's leakiest defenceAtletico Madrid make the short journey to Vallecas on Sunday to take on their near neighbours in a derby of great significance both at the top and bottom of the table.
Following two successive Liga draws, Atletico know three points are a must to maintain their title push, while Rayo Vallecano are in danger of becoming marooned in the relegation zone following a string of poor results. Paddy Power price a win for the hosts at 13/2 (7.50) with Atleti offered at 2/5 (1.40).
While last season, Rayo illuminated the division with their brand of thrilling, cavalier football, this season has been a different story.
Even their coach recognises that their defending has been "suicidal", with the Vallecanos losing each of their last five league matches at home conceding 17 goals in the process.
They have by far the worst defence in the league and, while Atletico are not a prolific side, they should have enough about them to score a few goals. Los Rojiblancos are available at just 4/9 (1.44) to score two or more goals which is of little interest, yet the price of 13/8 (2.62) for them to score over 2.5 goals is infinitely more appealing.
This season Barcelona, Real Madrid, Villarreal, Espanyol and Real Valladolid have all score three or more goals at the Estadio Vallecas and Atletico have sufficient firepower to join that list.
|Atletico Madrid to score over 2.5 goals at 13/8 (2.62) 1.5pt stake with Paddy Power|
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports journalist and TV presenter in Madrid