Betting expert Pete Nordsted has found plenty of value using his match analysis to find draws that he feels are overpriced and he shares three weekend picks with us
What I propose to do is give you up to three selections a week from the top four European leagues.
The lengthy odds on the draw and punters' likelihood to back either side to win mean that you can often obtain better than 3/1 (4.0) on the match finishing all square.
With this is mind that means you only need one of the three games to end level to show a profit. Please remember that you are backing the draw and losing runs are inevitable so keep stakes reasonable. This weekend our selections come from La Liga and Serie A.
On Saturday afternoon in the Serie A we turn to the Livorno v Parma game, where the visitors have had a reasonable season so far, currently sitting in eighth place on 23 points. However, recently they have become draw specialists with five of their last seven league matches finishing in stalemate.
The stats for struggling home side Livorno are not as strong. However, they have drawn three of their nine home games this season and three of their last seven home games when facing teams of Parma’s grading. The draw can be backed at 9/4 (3.25) with William Hill and this looks to offer some value.
On Sunday morning Torino take on a Fiorentina side who are sitting in fourth place, just three points from a Champions League place.
When facing teams of Fiorentina’s stature, Torino have drawn four of their last seven home games and indeed they have been level at the break in eight of the last 10 hosting these sides.
In the case of Fiorentina the stats are not as strong. However, three of their last 10 away to teams of Torino’s grade have finished a stalemate. Here the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40) with William Hill.
Finally, Sunday evening sees a mid-table clash between Levante and Malaga. Since the departure of Manuel Pellegrini to Manchester City, Malaga have struggled for consistency under current coach Bernd Schuster. However, away from home they have been quite resilient and Malaga have drawn five of their last eight away games.
Looking at Levante, they have struggled at home this season, only winning two of their opening eight home games, whilst drawing three.
Incidentally, Granotes have been level at the break in six of their opening eight home games this season and the half-time draw can be backed at 10/11 (1.91) with William Hill. Otherwise the draw can be backed at 23/10 (3.30) again with William Hill.
Livorno v Parma – Draw @ 9/4 (3.25) William Hill
Torino v Fiorentina – Draw @ 12/5 (3.40) William Hill
Levante v Malaga – Draw @ 23/10 (3.30) William Hill
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