After a week of shocks in the Champions League, JD looks at why bettors should take a longer term view before deciding what their next position should be in the markets
Barcelona and Chelsea were high profile casualties and left layers with a big smile on their face. Punters got their revenge on Wednesday night though with plenty of odds-on favourites in the Champions League obliging.
As if that wasn't bad enough, it was also goals galore as all of the matches went over 2.5 goals. Goals are always a good sign for punters as they tend to back goals in a match rather than oppose them so you can normally determine the outcome for each side by how high scoring the game was.
Why it's unwise to read too much into isolated results
Football is one of the most unpredictable sports in the world. It is part of its beauty, appeal and challenge from a betting perspective.
In football, one team can dominate another in most aspects of play and still lose. That's not the case with the majority of sports. Refereeing decisions, red cards, injuries all add to the drama and randomness of the sport.
Sometimes a team's qualities are entirely suited to exposing the weakness in another and that kind of outcome can produce winners that come with huge prices. For example, Manchester United's 5-0 victory over Bayer Leverkusen was a 500/1 (501.0) chance with Paddy Power.
We must remember at this point, that the German side were favourites going into the match and enjoy an excellent home record in the Champions League group stages.
They also sit only 4 points behind probably the best team in the world, Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga table and above last season's beaten Champions League finalists, Borussia Dortmund.
From an analytic point of view, it is unwise to draw too many conclusions from such an irregular and isolated result.
Although I think we can safely assume that the difference in quality between the two teams is not as great as the scoreline suggests. It is always better to take a longer, more measured view of a team and its capabilities.
This kind of analysis will help you become more successful in the long term when it comes to deciding where to invest your money.
This weekend's tips
Looking ahead to the weekend, it will be interesting to see how Southampton fare at Stamford Bridge.
Their 2-0 loss to Arsenal last weekend was their 11th consecutive league away match which went under 2.5 goals. bet365 go Evens (2.0) that this match goes the same way and it looks a strong option.
Hertha Berlin can get back to winning ways at home to Augsburg. They played well in defeat to Bayer Leverkusen last weekend and have caught the eye this season.
Pep Guardiola was particularly complimentary towards them when they ran the German champions close in a 3-2 defeat earlier in the season and they have adapted well back in top flight football in Germany.
Augsburg don't travel well and have lost nine of their last 10 away matches. bet365 are Evens (2.0) about a home victory and that looks a good price for this weekend.
|Southampton v Chelsea (Under 2.5 goals) at Evens (2.0) with bet365||Herth Berlin to win at Evens (2.0) with bet365|
Sign up with bet365 for up to £200 in free bets
Thank you to all who have signed up to my advisory service. You can join by subscribing to www.jdfootballbetting.com or contacting me on firstname.lastname@example.org