The world champions are on the brink of qualification but, as Phil Kitromilides explains, they frequently struggle in front of goal against sides who set out to defendHaving overcome Belarus 2-1 on Friday with a far-from-spectacular performance, Spain require just a point at home to Georgia this evening to confirm their place at World Cup 2014.
A victory for Georgia at 50/1 (60.00) with Bet365 would be one of the biggest shocks in the history of international football, with a win for la Roja at 1/5 (1.20) never really in question.
It falls to us once more to try and find some value in a market devoid of appealing options. Vicente del Bosque's side found it hard to break down Belarus on Friday as the visitors defended effectively en masse.
Georgia can be expected to do the same, meaning some might be tempted by the 10/3 (4.33) offered for Draw/Spain in the half-time/full-time market.
Alternatively, backing under 3.5 goals at 10/11 (1.91) could prove to be a wise option.
Though it might feel wrong to back against a high-scoring encounter with the world champions facing inferior opposition, this qualifying campaign has taught us that Spain often have trouble in breaking down teams set up entirely to defend.
It's no mean task to undo a ten-man defence and Spain have found that out this campaign, with six of their seven World Cup qualifiers seeing less than four goals.
Despite appearing a strange selection the statistics back this bet up and it is well worth considering.
|Under 3.5 goals at 10/11 (1.91) 1.5 point stake with bet365|
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports journalist and TV Presenter in Madrid