Our La Liga expert Phil Kitromilides believes the price of 4/5 for over 1.5 goals in the opening period offers extremely good value in what is likely to be a high-scoring gameAfter their worst sequence of results for five years, Barcelona could not have asked for a better tie to help them get back to winning ways, as Deportivo La Coruna visit Camp Nou rock bottom of the table with one win in their last 16 league games.
Furthermore the side from Galicia have failed to win any of their 13 away games this season, and are understandably priced at 18/1 (19.00) with Bet365 to do so on Saturday night. Barca meanwhile are priced at 1/9 (1.11) to claim all three points with the draw offered at 8/1 (9.00).
Despite three defeats in their last four games, there can be nobody doubting the fact that Barcelona will win this encounter against the beleaguered Galicians extremely comfortably. Since their 2-0 home loss against Hercules in September 2010 (still the biggest shock in terms of La Liga betting which has ever occurred), the Catalans have played 79 matches in all competitions.
They have lost just two of those games, both of them to
Real Madrid. That statistic should put things into perspective, and with another straightforward win seemingly on the cards, we must revert to some familiar markets in order to find value.
Backing over 1.5 goals in the first half, is often an excellent option for Barca home matches, and here the price of 4/5 (1.80) looks genuinely big.
This bet has paid out in eight of the Catalans' last nine home league games, and against a Deportivo side with statistically the worst defence in the history of Spanish football at this stage of the season, there is every chance that we will be in for another high-scoring first half at the Camp Nou.
For a value bet try backing over 2.5 goals in the opening period at 12/5 (3.40). With Depor conceding first half goals in 12 of their 13 away games this season, and the Catalans seeing at least three goals scored in the first 45 minutes of six of their last seven home league games, this bet looks a great option offering some higher odds.
|Over 1.5 goals first half at 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365
||Over 2.5 goals first half at 12/5 (3.40) with Bet365|
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports anchor working on TV in Madrid. You can also follow Phil on Twitter.