It is worth bearing in mind that it is a long time since anyone beat Atletico Madrid at home in any competition. Indeed nearly ten months have passed since los Rojiblancos tasted defeat at the Calderon and of the 23 subsequent matches, Atleti have won 22. Furthermore it is also worthy of consideration the fact that Alvaro Negredo's penalty for Sevilla in their Copa del Rey semi-final first leg on Thursday was the first goal that Atletico Madrid had conceded at home since early November, ending a run of ten successive home clean sheets.
Those statistics alone should have punters rushing to back Diego Simeone's men in some way, yet the Argentine will be demanding a lot more from his side than he saw in their last league outing when they were humbled 3-0 at Athletic Bilbao. Betis too will be keen to bounce back having also suffered a 3-0 defeat in their last game, just down the road from Atletico Madrid at Rayo Vallecano.
Having scanned BetVictor's numerous markets for the game, perhaps the best bet would appear to be backing 2-3 goals in the match at the healthy price of 17/20 (1.85).
This is an intelligent bet because it gives punters plenty of options, but analysing recent result it also looks to have a great chance of paying out, having proved the correction selection in Atletico's last six matches, as well as in Betis' previous five encounters. To add more compelling weight to the argument for investing in 2-3 goals, this bet paid out in both legs of the cup quarter-final between these sides, and has also paid out in five of their last seven meetings.
For a value bet, back Atleti to win 2-0 at 11/2 (6.50) as remarkably this has been the score in three of their last four home games.
|2-3 goals to be scored at 17/20 (1.85) with Bet Victor
||Atletico Madrid to win 2-0 at 11/2 (6.50)with Bet Victor|
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports broadcaster working on TV in Madrid. You can also follow Phil on Twitter.