JD's Betting Blog: Beware of changes in team mentality as season evolves
This week JD looks at how some teams can adopt different mentalities in the second half of the season and why we should be wary of them, as well as two tips for this weekendA change in mentality
January and February can be a tricky time for bettors and traders as teams in this part of the season often change and adapt in terms of personnel and tactics and it makes things a little more unpredictable. It is particularly common with struggling teams as they go into survival mode.
Take for example QPR in the Premier League. The appointment of a new manager in Harry Redknapp has brought an improvement in fortunes and they are now a much more difficult side to beat compared to earlier in the season under Mark Hughes.
They are happy to contain teams and have picked up results against Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Manchester City in low-scoring matches. These changes as the season evolves are something we should be aware of and they must be factored into your betting strategy. Despite this improvement though, QPR are still odds on at 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365 to be relegated.
This weekend's tips
Looking ahead to the weekend, Wigan Athletic have only won two home matches in the league this season so they look very short at Evens (2.0) to beat Southampton. A straight lay (backing against Wigan) seems the best option and Southampton can be backed at 5/6 (1.83) to win or draw with Bet365.
For my other tip this weekend I will continue with a tried and trusted part of the betting portfolio which is team goals markets.
I like the team goals strategy and one of the options available with these markets is backing outsiders to score one goal or more against their well fancied opponents.
Catania justified our faith in them last weekend by defeating Fiorentina 2-1 in Serie A and they can find the net at Napoli this weekend. They do not need to win or even draw the match, just breach the defences once to land this part of the bet.
The second half of this double involved Barcelona who have been struggling for clean sheets this season on the road and Valencia lie in wait for them this weekend. Simply back Napoli and Barcelona in the "No clean sheet" market in a double with Bet365 and that pays 2.10 (11/10).
|Southampton and the draw (Double Chance) at 5/6 (1.83) with bet365||Napoli and Barcelona not to keep a clean sheet at 11/10 (2.10) with bet365|
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