In Thursday's televised League Two clash at Kingsmeadow, Jim Knight believes there is value in backing the league leaders to continue thier impressive scoring streakDue to the widespread postponements that swept League Two thanks to the bad weather last weekend, both these teams will be well-rested following 12 days without a competitive fixture.
While that may be something they have in common, their aims for the season are completely different. Micky Adams has guided his Port Vale side to the top of the division and after a 2-1 win over second place Gillingham in their last game they now have a seven point cushion in the automatic promotion places.
It may come as a surprise then, that Vale are available at 19/20 (1.95) with bet365 to win this match, especially considering they have won four of their last five matches and it's a price that many may consider good value but the home side have improved of late.
AFC Wimbledon are more concerned with preserving their Football League status and are now on a three-match unbeaten run, with much-needed wins over Torquay and Rochdale meaning they are now just a point off safety.
They are an industry best 3/1 (4.0) with bet365 to claim another three points while the draw is a 14/5 (3.80) play with the same firm, neither of those bets appeal so it's best to look for value elsewhere.
That mini revival in Wimbledon's results, although encouraging, shouldn't deter punters from backing Port Vale to continue their good goalscoring form. Adams has brought in Lee Hughes from Notts County and although he is now 37 years of age, he adds more firepower to a forward line that already contains League Two's top goalscorer, Tom Pope.
The best bet here is to back Port Vale to score two or more goals at 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365. Vale have been rampant in front of goal for most of the season and this bet would of landed in four of their last five matches.
This market appears to offer even more value when looking at this season's results against sides currently in 18th place or below where the league leaders have been nothing short of prolific.
Of the seven games that Port Vale have played, they've only failed to land this bet once, in the other six matches they scored at least three times, twice scoring four goals.
With that in mind and for those in search of a bigger price, it seems logical to take Port Vale to win the match and over 2.5 goals to be scored at 7/4 (2.75).
Wimbledon have played nine matches against teams in the top 10 of the division, managing only one draw and losing the other eight. While they may have shown signs of life in recent weeks which may mean they can contribute at least one goal to the tally, Vale should be too good for them and are good value get the better of a high-scoring encounter at a decent price.
|Best Bet||Value Bet|
|Port Vale to score over 1.5 goals at 5/6 (1.83) with bet365||Port Vale to win and over 2.5 total goals at 7/4 (2.80) with bet365|
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Jim Knight is Betting Editor at Goal.com and has been tipping football games since he was old enough to place a bet. He is a Leicester City fan, writer and member of the We Are Going Up Podcast
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