Diary of a Punter: Backing West Brom to prove stubborn opposition for Arsenal
Dec 5, 2012 7:10:00 PM
Jim Knight won with his only bet last week and is in a confident mood as he explains why he is opposing Arsenal in the Premier League this weekend
Arsenal v West Bromwich Albion: Draw/West Brom Double Chance at 6/4 (2.5) with Paddy Power
This price is just too big for me to resist putting a small amount of my bankroll on. Arsenal host West Brom and the Gunners are looking to change a run of fortune which has seen them win only one of their previous five matches in all competitions.
The Baggies are looking to recover from back-to-back defeats themselves but you can forgive them a blip after such an impressive start to the season, more importantly, Steve Clarke's men have nothing to lose coming into this match. No one will be expecting them to win at the Emirates on Saturday, far from it, Arsene Wenger's side will be the ones under pressure and are available to back at 1/2 (1.5) with Paddy Power. That appears to be quite a short price; it basically implies Arsenal will win this match at least 66 per cent of the time.
Arsenal rested a few players in midweek but West Brom had the whole week to recover and prepare, so I will not be reading too much into that factor. It is not just the results but the style of football that the home side have been playing which makes me think there is value in opposing them.
They have clearly struggled without Robin van Persie but a more concerning factor was that last Saturday Swansea showed just how fragile they are defensively. They were outplayed at home by a well organised team on that occasion and Clarke will know that there are gaps to be exploited in the defence if his side can replicate some of their better performances from the first 15 games.
West Brom should not be overawed by this occasion, they have started the season well, sitting just outside the Champions League qualification places and 6/4 (2.50) for them to avoid defeat is a nice looking price for £10 of my betting bankroll.
Peterborough v Middlesbrough: Middlesbrough to win at 21/20 (2.05) with Paddy Power
This bet is just as much about how poor Peterborough are as it is about Middlesbrough's talents. The visitors are not in fantastic form but should have enough about them to see off a team who look destined to be playing in League One next season if they don't change their fortunes soon.
Darren Ferguson's side have not won a match since October 27 and in the seven games since then they have only registered one draw, losing the other six matches. They really struggle going forward but their main problem is defensively, where they have conceded 2.6 goals per game in their last five league matches. It is a thin squad and there are some serious issues between players and board as well as on the pitch.
Boro have already beaten the likes of Brighton, Watford and Blackburn on their travels this season and Tony Mowbray's side should not have too many problems heaping more misery on the hosts here. I am surprised to see them available to back at odds-against and £15 goes on them at 21/20 (2.05) with Paddy Power.
Win a £20 free bet
There was no winner of the £20 free bet last week, Arsenal's loss to Swansea meant a lot of multiples went down, so if you had entered a winning single you could have collected the prize. To be in with a chance of winning this week all you have to do is email betting@goal.com with your best weekend tip and include Power20 in the subject. One entry per person, the editors decision is final.
Entry is open until midday on Saturday so get your emails in early to ensure your tip is counted.
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Balance at the start of the week: £546.25
Profit for the season: £46.55 |
| West Brom/Draw (Double Chance) v Arsenal: £10 at 6/4 (2.50) with Paddy Power |
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| Middlesbrough to beat Peterborough: £15 at 21/20 (2.05) with Paddy Power | |
| Total staked this week: £25 |
Sign up with Paddy Power for up to £250 in free bets
Jim Knight is Betting Editor at Goal.com and has been tipping football games since he was old enough to place a bet. He is a Leicester City fan, writer and member of the We Are Going Up Podcast
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