Diary of a Punter: Opposing Liverpool against Newcastle
After just missing out on last week's double, Jim Knight is determined to get back on track and has picked out two away teams he feels offer good value for puntersSomehow Huddersfield conspired not to score a solitary goal last Saturday as they were battered 4-0 by Millwall and that unusual lack of potency in the final third from Simon Grayson's men cost me a nice double.
The early stages of the FA Cup are now underway so there are only two leagues of domestic action to pick from but two games which catch my eye, both feature away teams who I feel are somewhat overpriced by the bookmakers and could provide bumper returns.
Charlton v Middlesbrough - Middlesbrough Draw No Bet at Evens (2.0) with Paddy Power
Middlesbrough have impressed me in recent weeks, they've gone about their business in the Championship with a great degree of professionalism and their results are proof of that.
A 1-0 Capital One Cup win over local rivals Sunderland in midweek was the icing on the cake for Tony Mowbray's men, extending a great run which has seen them win their last four league matches, conceding just two goals in that time. Their away form is fantastic, with Tuesday's cup win meaning they've won their last five away games in all competitions.
Charlton's home form has been patchy at best this season and after a win over Leicester City in August they've failed to win any of their following five fixtures at the Valley, losing three of them.
This is unlikely to be a high-scoring clash as, even in defeat, Chris Powell's men haven't conceded more than one goal in any of those ties but with Middlesbrough flying high and available at Even Money (2.00) with the safety net of refunded stakes if the match ends level, I’m more than happy to commit £15 of my bankroll to this.
Liverpool v Newcastle - Newcastle and Draw (Double Chance) at 7/5 (2.4) with Paddy Power
I've spoken about my willingness to oppose Liverpool at home in this column before, and I'm surprised at the prices available on the Reds' game this weekend.
They host Newcastle and the Reds are as short as 4/7 (1.57) in places with Newcastle available at a chunky 5/1 (6.0).
Those odds imply Liverpool will win this game a shade over 63 per cent of the time, which, as form shows, is unlikely to be the case, therefore, I'm happy to continue backing against them at 7/5 (2.40).
That looks like a great value proposition to me, you get Newcastle and the draw and a chunky return to boot. The Magpies have lost just two of their nine Premier League games so far, and sit three points above the hosts in the table.
Their form on the road isn't anything to write home about but they've claimed a least a point in three of their four Premier League games on the road this season, the only loss coming 2-0 at Stamford Bridge. At 7/5 (2.4) the double chance looks good value to me and I'll commit £15 of my bankroll to this bet.
Middlesbrough and Newcastle double at 15/1 (16.2)
In addition to those two selections, I'll chance a longshot double on Middlesbrough and Newcastle both to claim victories on the road, that's a shade over 15/1 (16.20) with Paddy Power and will provide some handsome returns from a small stake, in this case, five English pounds.
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Balance at the start of the week: £483.25
Profit for the season: £-16.75
|Middlesbrough (Draw No Bet): £15 at Evens (2.0) with Paddy Power
|Newcastle and Draw (Double Chance): £15 at 7/5 (2.40) with Paddy Power|
|Middlesbrough and Newcastle Double: £5 at 15/1 (16.20) with Paddy Power|
|Total staked this week: £35|
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Jim Knight is Betting Editor at Goal.com and has been tipping football games since he was old enough to place a bet. He is a Leicester City fan, writer and member of the We Are Going Up Podcast
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