After a 9/4 winning selection in the first semi-final, Phil Kitromilides is backing the Germans to continue their impressive record and progress to the final in KievThe two most successful European teams in the history of international football meet in Warsaw on Thursday, with Germany the odds-on favourites to defeat Italy and meet Spain in Sunday's final.
While La Roja's progress in the tournament has been unspectacular if not unexpected, die Mannschaft have been highly impressive in the four matches they have played.
The only side with a 100 per cent record, the Germans are available at 10/11 (1.90) with Bet365 to claim victory, which, on the surface, is a price attractive enough to tempt more than a few punters. Italy meantime are available at 7/2 (4.50) to win, while the draw, which proved the profitable selection in Wednesday's semi-final, is offered at 12/5 (3.40).
Eyebrows were raised when Joachim Low left the trio of Mario Gomez, Thomas Muller and Lukas Podolski on the bench for the quarter-final against Greece.
Yet their subsequent demolition of the Greeks vindicated Low's selection and has left him with a forward line that is rested, revitalised and raring to go.
Nine goals in four matches in a major tournament is an impressive record for any side, and this German team is capable of scoring from all angles.
They have the physical presence to be threatening from set pieces, the power and speed to break away, and the patience and skill to piece together intricate passing moves. Therefore the temptation is to back goals, and over 2.5 is available at 13/10 (2.30).
However, a better bet looks to be backing Germany to score over 1.5 goals, available at 11/10 (2.10). This bet has paid out in 15 of their last 17 matches and, despite this being a European Championship semi-final, this team has plenty of experience in reaching the latter stages of major tournaments and should not be fazed by the occasion.
And if the Germans look likely to score at least two goals, it is logical to follow up this selection with a value bet along the same lines, and Germany to win by a margin of two goals looks attractive at 4/1 (5.00). This bet paid out in the last round against Greece and is the kind of bet that usually holds one's interest for the majority of the match.
|Germany to score over 1.5 goals at 11/10 (2.10) with Bet365
Germany to win by two goals at 4/1 (5.00) with Bet365
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports broadcaster working on radio and TV in London and Madrid, you can also follow Phil on Twitter