Wednesday's Bet of the Day: Bayern to score at Real but not win

The Bavarians have a 2-1 lead when they visit Los Blancos for their Champions League semi-final second-leg. Adam Bates expect Jupp Heynckes' men to net, but end on the losing side
Tuesday’s astonishing events in Barcelona saw underdogs Chelsea qualify for the final, and this will have obvious repercussions for this Champions League semi-final.

Whether it is Real Madrid or Bayern Munich who qualify on Wednesday, they will be strong favourites against a Blues side already robbed of four first-teamers through suspension.

Of course, the Bavarians would have home advantage should they reach the final – but first they must get past Jose Mourinho’s men at the Santiago Bernabeu.

They are 11/10 (2.1) to achieve that feat after winning the first leg 2-1. Los Blancos, on the other hand, are a 4/6 (1.67) with William Hill to advance to the final.

In the goalscorer markets, the price for Cristiano Ronaldo to net is staggeringly short. The Portuguese star is 2/5 (1.4) to score – a reflection of his 54-goal haul this season.

Bayern’s Mario Gomez hasn’t been struggling himself. The German striker has already hit the 40-goal mark this season and bagged a late winner in the first leg. Gomez is 7/4 (2.75) to score anytime.

In the other markets, there is some encouragement for Bayern in Real’s home record in La Liga this season – if you look hard enough.

Real Madrid have beaten – and scored three goals or more against – every team in La Liga except the other three members of the current top four.

A home defeat to Barcelona, and draws against Valencia and Malaga indicate that perhaps Los Blancos are ruthlessly efficient bullies, but could be vulnerable to a quality side.

Real Madrid have conceded 13 of their 17 La Liga home games. As a result the pick of the bets is to back both teams to score in this one at 8/13 (1.62).

But with Barcelona licking their wounds, it’s hard to believe Real will be denied their moment. The most common scoreline at the Bernabeu this season has been 4-1. That’s the long-shot pick at 18/1 (19.0) with William Hill.

Both teams to score at 8/13 (1.62) with William Hill
Real Madrid to win 4-1 at 18/1 (19.0) with William Hill

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Adam Bate is a professional freelance journalist who specialises in football and betting. He is editor of GhostGoal which can be found here - you can also follow Adam on Twitter