Pete casts a professional punter's glance over this weekend's action from England's top flightProfessional sports trader and Goal.com contributor Pete Nordsted continues his new betting column where he casts a punter's view on events in the markets and includes his weekly picks. Mr. Nordsted's three draw strategy in our weekly series Five To Follow earned a 15 point profit last season.
As well as providing my three draws each week, I thought I would provide readers with some strong statistical trends that have appeared in the forthcoming Premier League matches. The idea here is to give you some food for thought and to highlight where the value may lie in certain games.
Arsenal will be looking to get their season kick-started against newly promoted Swansea and will be hoping their recent last minute transfer activity will provide immediate returns.
Late goals look to be the order of the day at the Emirates, where there has been a goal scored after 75 minutes in eight of Arsenal's last 10 home games against sides of Swansea's grading. You should be able to obtain around 10/11 (1.91) for the last goal to be scored after 75 minutes in this contest.
Although Everton should be avoided when playing at home to the basement sides they do seem to perform better at Goodison when faced with stiffer opposition, such as this weekends visit of Aston Villa, and there is every indication that the Toffees could score the last goal of the game.
Everton have scored the last goal of the game in eight of their last 10 matches to similarly graded sides. This weekend's opponents Aston Villa have conceded the last goal of the game in nine of their last 10 away matches to teams of Everton's rating. You should be able to obtain 7/10 (1.70) for Everton to score the last goal of the game.
Chelsea will be looking to get their title aspirations back on track when they visit Sunderland, and the Londoners have won all four of their last visits to the Stadium of Light. However, there is every indication that the game could be a fairly tight affair in the first half.
Chelsea have been drawing at the break in seven of their last eight away matches to teams of Sunderland's grading. Steve Bruce's team have been level at half-time in three of their last four home matches against teams of Chelsea's level. You should be able to back the half-time draw at around 6/5 (2.20).
Pete's Weekend Tips
Last week unfortunately we showed a loss with all three results going down. This weekend I am going for the following draws; Stoke City v Liverpool (3.30), Sunderland v Chelsea (3.75) and Wolves v Spurs (3.25) with the Stoke - Liverpool game being the strongest of these selections.
To get a full rundown of the draws and to get the free Premier Betting Newsletter just head over to Premier Betting and sign up. Remember, you only need one draw in three to come off to earn a profit.
Match Odds: Stoke 3.40, Draw 3.30, Liverpool 2.20 (bet365)
• Record of teams of Stoke’s grading against teams of Liverpool's grading reads W10 D14 L16
• Stoke's recent home record against teams of Liverpool's grading is W3 D3 L1
• Liverpool's recent away record against teams of Stoke's grading is W3 D0 L3
• Head to Head recent record at Stoke reads Stoke 1 Draw 2 Liverpool 0
• Stoke have drawn two of their last five home matches.
• Liverpool have drawn one of their last five away matches.
Pete Nordsted is the co-author of the Premier Football Betting Handbook 2011/12 which is now available for purchase. The follow up to last year's successful book offers a comprehensive guide of the best markets for this season's forthcoming Premier League season and how to profit from them.
The book can be ordered by going to the following link at Harriman House or is available in the Kindle Store at Amazon. For more about his work see Premier Betting.
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