Real Madrid lagging behind Barcelona everywhere and three things we learned about betting from the weekend
Apr 4, 2011 5:30:00 PM
Some further lessons on how the odds are reflected by the action on the pitch...
1) 150 And Out For JoseNext to Sir Alex Ferguson's successor the market running the longest came to an end last week. Jose Mourinho's remarkable unbeaten record at home crashed to a halt against Sporting Gijon who inflicted the first defeat on the 'Special One' on his own turf since 2002.
Perhaps the most relieved people of all after the shock Bernabeu result were the traders at bookmaker TitanBet. The bookie had priced Los Blancos to go the season unbeaten at a wild 20/1 (21.0) before a ball was kicked and Goal.com readers snapped up the price before it was slashed to 7/1 (8.0).
Trader Nikos Tsagkatakis told Goal.com there were some happy faces in the office when the result came through.
"We said the 20/1 odds were wrong as they were miles out! Personally I felt confident that Mourinho wouldn't continue his league record at the Bernabeu as it's a different football culture there.
"We decided to keep all bets when we could have easily cancelled them due to palpable error. It was a good decision after all to keep the bets even at wrong odds so we are happy as a big liability is now out of the way."
La Liga Title Odds (William Hill)
Barcelona @ 1.02
Real Madrid 13.0
Copa Del Rey Odds (William Hill)
Barcelona @ 1.61
Real Madrid @ 2.20
Champions League Outright Odds
Barcelona @ 2.20
Real Madrid @ 5.50
2) Few Surprises In Serie A
So Brescia beat Bologna and Chievo drew with Sampdoria in Italy over the weekend. At odds shorter than 1.50 in both cases nobody was surprised both results came in after rumours surrounding the games were rife all week.
Most bookmakers suspended betting in advance of the Chievo - Sampdoria game which was described as a "lifeless goalless draw" in one report. A stalemate was expected but plenty of punters had lobbed on the 1-1 scoreline and were left out of pocket.
Brescia were a short price to beat Bologna and romped home 3-1 winners in their first victory since early February. Any punter who got in on time to back a Chievo - Sampdoria draw and a Brescia win would have got better than evens and cleaned up.
Forecasting to next week bookies have already slashed the odds on a draw between Cagliari and Brescia occurring to as short as 1.75. Your regular draw will be around the 3.0. Based on last weekend's antics get in there while you can.
3) Fergie's 19th Title A Certainty
Another win for Manchester United has seen their title odds cut to 1.20. Precious little value there unless you are placing huge stakes so Hill's have opened a book on how many points the Red Devils will win the title by.
Premier League Title Odds (William Hill)
Man Utd @ 1.20
Arsenal @ 5.50
Chelsea @ 15.0
Man City @ 67.0
"United's title odds are now restrictive - they went to 1.20 after winning at West Ham - but punters can still speculate on the number of points United will win by," said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.
How many points will Man Utd win the league by:
Not win @ 4.33
1 or 2 points @ 4.50
3 or 4 points @ 3.75
5 or 6 points @ 5.50
7 or 8 points @ 8.50
9 or 10 points @ 11.0
11 or more @ 11.0
Goal difference @ 17.0
And finally...
Meanwhile, the wait for Fernando Torres' first Chelsea goal continues. He's now 7.0 to fail to find the net in his next five games. Hill's have him @ 2.10 to break his duck against Manchester United on Wednesday.
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Live!
Champions League final - LIVE!
German giants Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund will battle it out at Wembley for European glory. Get involved by sending us your thoughts via Twitter or Facebook! Hosted by Mark Doyle.
11:08 PM BST
Right, that's just about it from me, folks. Thank you so much for all your contributions. We hyped this one up. We said it was going to showcase everything that is great about German football. And you know what? It delivered. It was an absolutely absorbing final between the continent's top two sides, a fitting conclusion to what has been a fantastic tournament. Impossible not to feel so, so sorry for Dortmund but they need only to look at what Bayern have done tonight, lifting the trophy just 12 months after throwing it away, to see that it's possible to bounce back from this kind of devastation.
But Bayern deserve this. They've paid their dues and nobody can dispute that they are the best team in Europe. Bayern, we salute you. Over to everyone else now to try to come up with a way to beat this most wonderfully balanced of sides! But, until next season, good night - and good luck.
But Bayern deserve this. They've paid their dues and nobody can dispute that they are the best team in Europe. Bayern, we salute you. Over to everyone else now to try to come up with a way to beat this most wonderfully balanced of sides! But, until next season, good night - and good luck.
11:00 PM BST
Dortmund boss Jurgen Klopp has finally faced the press and, judging by his comments, is a tad upset with perhaps something other than the final scoreline.
"First and foremost, congratulations to Bayern Munich because they won so it's not important to speak about what happened in the game," he told ITV1. "After the game you have to respect the result and that's what we do now.
"I didn't see (Robben's) goal. It was a free-kick and we were not in the right formation at that moment. It was late in the game and it has been a really hard season for us. But Bayern Munich had to fight too. We deserved to be in the final and we showed this tonight."
"First and foremost, congratulations to Bayern Munich because they won so it's not important to speak about what happened in the game," he told ITV1. "After the game you have to respect the result and that's what we do now.
"I didn't see (Robben's) goal. It was a free-kick and we were not in the right formation at that moment. It was late in the game and it has been a really hard season for us. But Bayern Munich had to fight too. We deserved to be in the final and we showed this tonight."
10:56 PM BST
Sir Alex Ferguson also has a new job... Well, kind of. The former Manchester United boss was entrusted with the honour of presenting the man of the match award after the game and relished the task: "It's my first job since I retired and it's a pleasure!"
Robben humbly received his accolade before commenting: "I think it’s such a shame a world-class trainer is leaving the game." Quite.
Robben humbly received his accolade before commenting: "I think it’s such a shame a world-class trainer is leaving the game." Quite.
10:51 PM BST
Heynckes, class act that he is, was also quick to empathise with a devastated Dortmund.
"I told their players: I know your disappointment after losing a final. I lost a final to Liverpool, too.
"During the first half we had trouble to get into the game. At half-time a adjusted our play. I think both teams felt pressure. If you see that you have a 25-point-lead in the league, it is normal you are the favourite. But after 30 minutes we freed ourselves.
"Over the past year, we improved and improved. We improved and modified so many details. I was stricter and I have to say that the players followed me and there is harmony in the dressing room."
"I told their players: I know your disappointment after losing a final. I lost a final to Liverpool, too.
"During the first half we had trouble to get into the game. At half-time a adjusted our play. I think both teams felt pressure. If you see that you have a 25-point-lead in the league, it is normal you are the favourite. But after 30 minutes we freed ourselves.
"Over the past year, we improved and improved. We improved and modified so many details. I was stricter and I have to say that the players followed me and there is harmony in the dressing room."
10:48 PM BST
And finally we get to hear from Bayern Munich boss Jupp Heynckes, who will be replaced by Pep Guardiola this summer.
The big news is, though, that he seems to have a job lined up for himself, which restores one's faith in our fickle game, given the man is now a two-time Champions League winner!
"The decision on what I will do after the DFB Pokal match (against Stuttgart next saturday) was already taken last June? Retire? No, you will learn that after the DFB Pokal final."
The big news is, though, that he seems to have a job lined up for himself, which restores one's faith in our fickle game, given the man is now a two-time Champions League winner!
"The decision on what I will do after the DFB Pokal match (against Stuttgart next saturday) was already taken last June? Retire? No, you will learn that after the DFB Pokal final."
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