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World Cup Draw Seeding Pots: The Possible Setup
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Nov 19, 2009 1:00:00 AM
Note: The pots given below are a best estimate based on information available at time of publication. FIFA have yet to announce the seeding procedure and thus a mixture of geographical draw precedent, current FIFA rankings and past World Cup performance points, and upcoming ranking changes, have been used to complete the below.
With all thirty-two World Cup 2010 teams decided, it's time to think about who will face whom when the big day of the draw comes in South Africa on December 4th.
However, it's not quite as elementary as it may seem at first. It is simply not the case that the team swill be thrown into four pots by order of descending ranking. For one thing, South Africa, the hosts, and reigning champions Italy are defaulted into the top seeding pot, although the Italians would be there anyway. These seeding pots are decided by a mixture of FIFA ranking and past finals performances of 2002 and 2006.
Secondly, due to FIFA rules, teams from the same confederation are, whenever possible, kept apart. This means that there will not be two South American or Asian teams in the same group. Due to the sheer volume of European teams - 15 - there will be some groups with more than one country from UEFA, but there is very likely to be a hard cap of two.
This was the case for the 2006 draw, whose procedures we largely mirror below as we look ahead to the draw. For the reason of continental hard caps as given above, Pot 2 is likely to comprise UEFA-only teams, with AFC, OFC and CONCACAF in Pot 3 and the non-seeded CONMEBOL teams joining Africa's CAF in the fourth pot.
In other words, only Pot 1 is truly an 'achievement' to reach (South Africa's host status aside), and the rest are largely geographic, with ranking taken as a secondary concern.
The mainstream media and the devoted statisticians are nearly unanimous in accepting that this is likely to be the outcome. But as noted at the beginning of this article, at present the pots below only present a best estimate and are not to be taken as a definitive guide. (After all, there's a reason that FIFA don't announce the seeding system until after the qualifiers are complete.)
Here are the four pots as assumed at present:
The draw will take place LIVE on Goal.com on December 4th 2009.
Steve Michaels, Goal.com
With all thirty-two World Cup 2010 teams decided, it's time to think about who will face whom when the big day of the draw comes in South Africa on December 4th.
However, it's not quite as elementary as it may seem at first. It is simply not the case that the team swill be thrown into four pots by order of descending ranking. For one thing, South Africa, the hosts, and reigning champions Italy are defaulted into the top seeding pot, although the Italians would be there anyway. These seeding pots are decided by a mixture of FIFA ranking and past finals performances of 2002 and 2006.
Secondly, due to FIFA rules, teams from the same confederation are, whenever possible, kept apart. This means that there will not be two South American or Asian teams in the same group. Due to the sheer volume of European teams - 15 - there will be some groups with more than one country from UEFA, but there is very likely to be a hard cap of two.
This was the case for the 2006 draw, whose procedures we largely mirror below as we look ahead to the draw. For the reason of continental hard caps as given above, Pot 2 is likely to comprise UEFA-only teams, with AFC, OFC and CONCACAF in Pot 3 and the non-seeded CONMEBOL teams joining Africa's CAF in the fourth pot.
In other words, only Pot 1 is truly an 'achievement' to reach (South Africa's host status aside), and the rest are largely geographic, with ranking taken as a secondary concern.
The mainstream media and the devoted statisticians are nearly unanimous in accepting that this is likely to be the outcome. But as noted at the beginning of this article, at present the pots below only present a best estimate and are not to be taken as a definitive guide. (After all, there's a reason that FIFA don't announce the seeding system until after the qualifiers are complete.)
Here are the four pots as assumed at present:
| Pot 1 | Pot 2 (UEFA Pot) |
 South Africa (CAF - as hosts) |  Netherlands (UEFA) |
 Germany (UEFA) |  Portugal (UEFA) |
 Brazil (CONMEBOL) |  Switzerland (UEFA) |
 Italy (UEFA) |  Greece (UEFA) |
 Spain (UEFA) |  Serbia (UEFA) |
 England (UEFA) |  Denmark (UEFA) |
 France (UEFA) |  Slovakia (UEFA) |
 Argentina (CONMEBOL) |  Slovenia (UEFA) |
| Pot 3 | Pot 4 |
 Mexico (CONCACAF) |  Paraguay (CONMEBOL) |
 USA (CONCACAF) |  Ghana (CAF) |
 South Korea (AFC) |  Cameroon (CAF) |
 Japan (AFC) |  Cote d'Ivoire (CAF) |
 Australia (AFC) |  Nigeria (CAF) |
 Honduras (CONCACAF) |  Uruguay (CONMEBOL) |
 New Zealand (OFC) |  Algeria (CAF) |
 North Korea (AFC) |  Chile (CONMEBOL) |
The draw will take place LIVE on Goal.com on December 4th 2009.
Steve Michaels, Goal.com
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