Champions League Qualification Scenarios

With all groups having completed their penultimate round tonight, the road to the knockout stages is all but complete - or at an end - for most of those clubs involved.

Here we will look at the state of play heading into the sixth and final matchday, with reference to knockout stage qualification, UEFA Cup parachute entry, group leadership, and the dreaded fourth place.

The state of play for the final four groups is as follows. Sides in italics have qualified for the knockout round. Groups A-D are already settled: see here for Champions League group stage tables.

Group E

Man Utd 9
Villarreal 9
Aalborg 5
Celtic 2

Manchester United have qualified for the knockout stage. They are ahead of Villarreal by two goals' difference, with an equal head-to-head record. If they stay level/ahead on points with Villarreal, and maintain a goal difference greater than that of Villarreal they will win the group. They meet AaB Aalborg in Matchday 6.

Villarreal have qualified for the knockout stage. They are behind Manchester United by two goals' difference, with an equal head-to-head record. If they go level/ahead on points with United, and produce a goal difference greater than that of Manchester United they will win the group. They meet Celtic away in Matchday 6.

AaB Aalborg cannot qualify for the knockout stages. They have secured their place in the UEFA Cup as Celtic cannot outdo them on points and have an inferior head-to-head record.

Celtic cannot qualify for the knockout stages. They are guaranteed a fourth place finish as they cannot outdo Aalborg on points and have an inferior head-to-head record.

Group F

Lyon 11
Bayern 11
Fiorentina 3
Steaua 1

Lyon have qualified for the knockout stage. They will meet Bayern in Matchday 6 at home for a match that will decide who wins the group. Currently Lyon lead Bayern on head to head (via away goals in their match) after a 1-1 draw in Munich. With a goal difference two worse than Bayern's, they must manage a 0-0 draw or a win to guarantee group leadership after Matchday 6.

Bayern Munich have qualified for the knockout stage. They will meet Lyon away in Matchday 6 for a match that will decide who wins the group. Currently Lyon lead Bayern on head to head on away goals after a 1-1 draw in Munich. With a goal difference two better than Lyon's, they must manage a scoring draw or a win to guarantee group leadership after Matchday 6.

Fiorentina cannot qualify for the knockout stage. Anything other than defeat at Steaua on Matchday 6 will see them through to the UEFA Cup.

Steaua Bucharest cannot qualify for the knockout stage. Anything other than victory against Fiorentina on Matchday 6 will see them finish fourth.

Group G

Arsenal 11
Porto 9
Dynamo Kiev 5
Fenerbahce 2

Arsenal have qualified for the knockout stage. A draw or a win at Porto in Matchday 6 will see them win the group.

Porto have qualified for the knockout stage. They must beat Arsenal in Matchday 6 to win the group.

Dynamo Kyiv cannot qualify for the knockout stage. Their current head-to-head record with Fenerbahce is that of a 0-0 draw; if they lose to Fenerbahce on Matchday 6 they will finish last on head-to-head. Otherwise they qualify for the UEFA Cup.

Fenerbahce cannot qualify for the knockout stage. They must win at Dynamo Kyiv on Matchday 6 to reach the UEFA Cup; otherwise they finish fourth.

Group H

Juventus 11
Real Madrid 9
Zenit 5
BATE 2

Juventus have qualified for the knockout stage. A draw against BATE on Matchday 6 will see them win the group, even if Real Madrid win their match, as they have a better head-to-head record than the Spaniards.

Real Madrid have qualified for the knockout stage. A win over Zenit, coupled with a Juventus defeat at home to BATE, is the only possible way in which they can win the group.

Zenit cannot qualify for the knockout stage. Even if they lose on Matchday 6 and BATE win they will finish third due to a superior head-to-head record with the Belarussians.

BATE cannot qualify for the knockout stage, nor the UEFA Cup.