Goal.commentary: How Arsenal Can Win The EPL Title

1) That Arsenal will win four of their last five matches and get at least a draw in the fifth. This is certainly doable, considering the Gunners’ schedule includes Middlesbrough, Portsmouth, and Stoke City. The other two games are more difficult, home against Chelsea and away to Man. Utd., but Arsene Wenger’s side have not lost at the Emirates since a 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa on November 15, so one can assume they will take all the points against the Blues. The visit to Old Trafford, well, that is the one permitted draw—for both sides (see below).

2) That Manchester United will lose five of their final six matches and at best draw the sixth one. (If ManU draw one and Arsenal draw one, they would both have 75 points. So I am assuming that all the Arsenal wins and ManU losses would put the goal differential in Arsenal’s favor). Come on, technically, it could happen. And I’m sure you could get some highly favorable odds from the London bookies if you were to put your money behind its happening.

But seriously (or semi-seriously), look at the Red Devils’ schedule: home against Tottenham, a team that is 6-1-1 in their last eight and pushing for a European spot; away to Boro, a team clawing for survival; home to Man. City, a never-easy-to-predict derby; away to Wigan, a surprisingly competent side; home to Arsenal; and away to Hull, yet another side fighting to avoid the drop. In December, the Boro and Hull games might be a cinch, but given the circumstances and timing, they are trickier affairs.

3) That Liverpool, who are currently nine points ahead of Arsenal, will slouch toward the finish line, earning no more than three points from their final five games. Catching Liverpool would’ve been easier if Arsenal had earned the three points that were in their clutches till the death at Anfield last weekend. But the Arsenal faithful must hope Rafa’s Reds will crumble with the trauma of their Champions League exit. Alas, Liverpool’s schedule is softer than Kleenex, with only 7th-placed West Ham offering a true challenge.

4) That Chelsea, who are currently six points ahead of the Gunners, tally no more than six points from their final five games. As my colleague Mark Young pointed out yesterday in the Chelsea article of this series, the Blues are in decent shape right now, healthy and playing well (though Wednesday’s performance against Everton wouldn’t scare anyone). Like Arsenal, they are into the semifinals of the Champions League. But they have some added distractions: the FA Cup final and the ongoing will-he-go-or-will-he-stay saga of interim manager Guus Hiddink. But, like Liverpool, their schedule has only one tough test, the Arsenal game on May 10.