Bundesliga Preview: Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich

HSV Target Top Spot  

In their first competitive match after the winter break, Hamburg earned an impressive 3-1 victory over 1860 Munich in Tuesday’s DFB Pokal round of 16.  Their win came after a successful run of friendlies that included 3-0 and 2-0 wins over Hansa Rostock and league leaders Hoffenheim, respectively. 

In fact, Hamburg’s only shortcoming this January was in their first warm-up match, a 6-5 loss to AC Milan that was only decided after a  penalty shoot-out. Hamburg’s recent success is the result of form reminiscent of that which saw die Rothosen top the table for most of the 2008-09 Bundesliga’s first 9 rounds. Clearly, Martin Jol’s side are prepared to make a serious run for the title this spring.  

Unfortunately for the home team, they will be without Tuesday’s hat-trick hero, Ivica Olic, who is suspended following a tussle with Carlos Eduardo in Hamburg’s not-so-friendly against Hoffenheim.  Although some have already claimed conspiracy, Olic, who recently agreed to a three-year deal with Bayern, expressed regret that he will be unable to play against Bayern.  

“It's really tough for me to have to watch the next two games from the stands,” he reflected.  “That said, I'm convinced that my team-mates will be giving their all and will continue to blaze a path in the Bundesliga.”  

Also missing from Martin Jol’s squad will be Dutch international midfielder Nigel de Jong, who, following in the footsteps of former HSV team-mate Vincent Kompany, recently completed a transfer to Manchester City. De Jong spent most of the first half of 2008-09 on the bench injured, but will be sorely missed as Hamburg try to mount a run for first place.  

A win tomorrow would bring Hamburg a point ahead of favourites Bayern, and clear of first-placed Hoffenheim, at least for 18 hours or so.

The Bayern Steamroller Rolls On?  

Ahead of Friday’s tie with Hamburg, 21-time German champions Bayern seem to be hitting full stride. Germany’s most successful club won all of their January friendlies, and demolished a sluggish Stuttgart 5-1 at the Mercedes-Benz Arena on Tuesday. As the second half of the season begins, coach Juergen Klinsmann appears resolute that his team will not get off to the sluggish sort of start that hampered them in the early fall term.  

In spite of the run that produced just nine points from their first seven matches, Bayern stand level on points with league leaders Hoffenheim as the second half of their season begins.   

While there have been plenty of rumours surrounding the Bayern camp, Klinsmann’s squad will only have two changes ahead of Friday’s match: LA Galaxy striker Landon Donovan is making his return to German football on loan, and Willy Sagnol, who has sustained repeated injuries in recent years, has retired.  

One player who has recovered from injury is right-back-turned-right-midfielder Hamit Altintop. The Turkish international missed the first half of the campaign with a broken metatarsal, but is once again healthy and ready to compete for a starting role. His main competition, Bastian Schweinsteiger, has greatly improved under Klinsmann, and ‘Schweini’s’ brace against Stuttgart may mean that Altintop misses out on action.  

However, Klinsmann may opt to play Altintop at right-back, in which case Massimo Oddo and Christian Lell would miss out on playing time.  

Altintop isn’t the only one fighting for his starting role; according to Klinsmann, fringe players like Lell, Daniel van Buyten, Andreas Ottl and Tim Borowski, as well as Donovan, are doing everything they can to break into Klinsmann’s line-up.  

The competition within Bayern’s ranks means two things: 1) that we won’t know Klinsmann’s line-up until just before the players take to the pitch; and 2) that whoever starts for Bayern will be in peak form.  Friday’s match will be a tantalising affair.        

FORM GUIDE:  

Hamburg  

27/01/09  Hamburg 3 1860 Munich 1  (DFB Pokal)
21/01/09  Hamburg 3 Hansa Rostock 0  (Friendly)
15/01/09  Hamburg 2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0  (Friendly)
07/01/09  Hamburg 1 AC Milan 1 (5:6 after pens) (Friendly)  

Bayern

27/01/09  VfB Stuttgart 1 Bayern 5  (DFB Pokal)
22/01/09  FSV Mainz 0 Bayern 5  (Friendly)
19/01/09  Kaiserslautern 0 Bayern 2  (Friendly)
18/01/09  Eintracht Bamberg 0 Bayern 3  (Friendly)
12/01/09  Al-Wehda 1 Bayern 3  (Friendly)  

TEAM NEWS:  

Hamburg  

As mentioned before, now-fit Nigel de Jong has left Hamburg for Manchester City. His apparent replacement is Gladbach loanee Marcel Ndjeng, who could make his first appearance for HSV on Friday.  

Jol will be without Olic (suspension) and Alex Silva, who is currently in Brazil.  Fortunately, Mladen Petric has recovered from a knock and should be fit to play after putting in 77 minutes against 1860 Munich on Tuesday.    

Probable Starting XI: Rost – Demel, Reinhardt, Mathijsen, Aogo – Jarolim, Benjamin – Trochowski, Jansen – Petric, Guerrero  

Bayern  

In spite of their best efforts, Bayern were unable to loan out Argentine international Jose Ernesto Sosa. Thus, the only loss to Klinsmann’s squad is the now-retired Sagnol. The only newcomer is Donovan, who impressed during the January friendlies.  

Three question marks lie over Klinsmann’s side. Toni Kroos and Lukas Podolski (both unfit), and Daniel van Buyten (recovering from gastroenteritis) may need more time in training before they return to the bench.  

Probable Starting XI: Rensing – Lell, Lucio, Demichelis, Lahm – van Bommel, Ze Roberto – Schweinsteiger, Ribery – Klose, Toni  

PLAYERS TO WATCH: 

Hamburg – Marcel Jansen, Piotr Trochowski, Jose Paolo Guerrero  

I couldn’t help but mention all three.  Though they play in separate roles, these three have one thing in common: they are all ex-Bayern starlets.    Guerrero and Trochowski have a history of playing well against Bayern, and while Friday’s match will be Jansen’s first outing against his former club, he is sure to be motivated.  Rumour has it that Jansen left Bayern on not-so-amicable terms. We’ll soon see if he lets out some of his frustration on the pitch.  

Bayern – Bastian Schweinsteiger  

Klinsmann’s arrival at Bayern has brought the best out of ‘Schweini.’  The 62-times-capped German international leads his team in assists in Bundesliga play (7), and he scored a brace in Stuttgart on Tuesday.  

With constant pressure on Ribery to perform miracles, Schweinsteiger’s consistency in attack on the right side will be crucial to easing the pressure on his left-sided counterpart, and will undoubtedly be a necessity towards the success of Bayern’s Bundesliga and Champions League campaigns.  

PREDICTION:  

When these teams met in August, Hamburg scraped out a 2-2 draw in Munich. Their players will be very motivated once more, but this time I think we’ll see a better Bayern. In the end, it comes down to which side put away their chances. The visitors will, no doubt, have several opportunities, and the match could be won by the end of the first half.

If, however, Hamburg keep a clean sheet over the first hour, odds are high that they will at least manage a draw. But based on form, I’ll tip Bayern to win by a narrow margin.  

Hamburg 1-2 Bayern

Clark Whitney, Goal.com