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Jornada 17 Preview: Positioning Battles
Six of the eight Liguilla teams have already secured their spot, but who plays whom will not be determined until the final whistle of the Apertura 2009 regular season.
Nov 13, 2009 11:52:17 AM
While the Liguilla calendar is set and six of the eight teams that will participate in the postseason are already known, the final weekend of the regular season will still hold plenty of drama.
So far, the following clubs have booked passage to the postseason: Morelia, Toluca, Cruz Azul, Monterrey, Santos and America. The remaining two teams will be either Puebla/Pachuca or San Luis/Chivas.
SATURDAY
Monterrey vs. Morelia, 6 p.m. ET
While neither team needs to worry about reaching the Liguilla, both sides still have plenty to play for. Morelia are three points ahead of both America and Monterrey, and a lopsided loss here could give Monterrey the group title. A draw, conversely, would hand it over to Morelia. More importantly, Morelia could clinch the top spot in the playoffs with a victory regardless of other scores elsewhere - provided Toluca do not win by seven goals or some other ridiculous total like that. Morelia seem focused and determined heading into the match, but Monterrey too would likely prefer to close the season on a high. Monrterrey will not have Humberto Suazo and Osvaldo Martinez available as the duo are with Chile and Paraguay, respectively.
Prediction: Draw, 1-1.
Jaguares vs. Atlas, 6 p.m. ET
It's a season of what could have been for Jaguares. While los chiapanecos have secured the bottom of the group table, Jaguares do sit in a bit of rarified air. In the Apertura 2009 season, Jaguares had a 5-2-2 record on the road this season and finished with a league-high 17 road points. The next four clubs with the most road points - Monterrey, Puebla, Cruz Azul and Morelia - are all either in or on the verge of the Liguilla. But Jaguares' form at home was awful as the club managed just two points from an 0-5-2 mark in Chiapas. Atlas seem like a strong candidate to become Jaguares' first and only home conquest. With players trying to stay afloat in the top flight and trying to avoid sinking the team into the relegation zone, Jaguares seem motivated. Atlas, meanwhile, have had problems with finances and players pointing fingers at club executives, so their focus is probably elsewhere.
Prediction: Jaguares, 3-0.
Pachuca vs. Tigres, 6 p.m. ET
In theory, Pachuca's season is not over. Los Tuzos have 23 points, three back of Puebla, and both teams have one game left to play. However, Puebla sit on a plus-five goal-differential while Pachuca sit on minus-two. Thus, Pachuca would have to win, Puebla would need to lose and the differences in the results would have to equal or surpass seven. So, a five-goal win by Pachuca over Tigres and a two-goal loss by Puebla to Toluca would do it. While it is possible theoretically, it seems practically impossible. Especially if Pachuca cannot take care of the first order of business, which is to win by a lot of goals at Tigres.
Prediction: Draw, 2-2.
Puebla vs. Toluca, 6 p.m. ET
Puebla warned themselves against complacency. Although the club has a Liguilla spot all but secured, Puebla players got a taste of a lopsided rout a week ago against Cruz Azul when they lost 4-0 to la Maquina. A similar loss to Toluca coupled with a Pachuca rout at Tigres would end Puebla's season prematurely. But the club is motivated not only to erase the bad memories of their thrashing by Cruz Azul but to prove to themselves and the rest of the league that they belong in the postseason. A good showing would help restore faith and confidence in Puebla. Toluca, though, might have other thoughts as los Diablos are still vying for the top spot in the league table.
Prediction: Draw, 0-0.
Queretaro vs. San Luis, 8 p.m. ET
San Luis might not have as many points as their potential Liguilla brethren but los Gladiadores sit in a comfortable position nevertheless. A win over Queretaro would be enough to get San Luis into the postseason. While their season has been tumultuous - manager Juan Antonio Luna abruptly resigned midway through the campaign - San Luis' favorable position as the worst of the worst in Group 1 will be enough to get them through to the Liguilla. San Luis can finish no better than ninth in the overall table and could get into the playoffs despite finishing with less points than several other non-playoff teams. San Luis could lose to Gallos Blancos and still get into the postseason provided Chivas also lose or tie and clinch a spot that way. Should that happen, San Luis would have fewer points than Pachuca and Atlante and at best even with Tigres, all non-playoff teams. But San Luis wouldn't mind as long as they are playing next weekend.
Prediction: San Luis, 1-0.
Chivas vs. Cruz Azul, 8 p.m. ET
Chivas have their third manager of the season on the sidelines against a club that has been solid and consistent all season long, and in fact are peaking entering the postseason. It is remarkable, however, that Chivas still have a pulse. Luck has smiled on Chivas as Group 1 is the worst in the league but Chivas have no control over that. All the club can do is win and hope San Luis does not. That could be enough to get Chivas into the playoffs. If Chivas wins and San Luis ties, the odds of Chivas going through are slim unless Chivas can win by a boatload of goals. Beating Cruz Azul won't be easy, let alone by more than three or four goals. La Maquina are hoping to solidify a favorable spot in the overall table and get a strong seed in the playoffs. That sort of motivation could be enough to knock Chivas out of the playoffs before they even start.
Prediction: Cruz Azul, 2-1.
Atlante vs. Estudiantes, 10 p.m. ET
Both teams are out of the final party of the season and will be playing for pride in the final game of the Mexican Apertura 2009. Estudiantes are currently in fifth place of group three, and Atlante are placed in third place of the same group as well. While Estudiantes will count with a full squad, los Potros will be without Guillermo Rojas and Luis David Velasquez because of suspension. Atlante will try to close out the season with a win at home where they have only lost two of the seven games played. Estudiantes have held a similar record only losing two of their away games. Los Potros will still play more games this season because of their inclusion in the Club World Cup. Extra motivation will be added by Estudiantes as they will try to send off Bruno Marioni to his retirement from the game.
Prediction: Estudiantes, 2-1
SUNDAY
Pumas vs. Indios, 1 p.m. ET
Unfortunately for the Mexican Clausura 2009 champions they regained their form too late to defend their title. The misfortune extends to Indios because they will face a Pumas that has not lost in the past four games. Neither side can aspire to the Liguilla on the last day of the season, but Indios will be looking to add a positive note to their total so they can lean farther away from the relegation table; at the moment the team only has five points from the entire season--all from draws. Pumas might have to be with Efrain Valverde, goalkeeper Sergio Bernal although both are doubts and Fernando Morales because of injury. Missing will be Dario Veron and Martin Bravo because of participation with their national team. Alejandro Gonzales and Daniel Frias will be missing from Indios because of injury as well.
Prediction: Pumas, 1-0
Santos vs. America, 5 p.m. ET
With a brand new stadium as the stomping ground Santos will want to open their first game in the Mexican league at their new home with a victory. Both teams have qualified to the Liguilla and are looking to close out the game with pride and a better standing on the final eight table. Aquivaldo Mosquera is a doubt because of injury and Jean Beausejour because of national team duty with Chile. Santos will count on all of its players for the game and will also be coming off a four games without a win.
Prediction: America, 1-0
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So far, the following clubs have booked passage to the postseason: Morelia, Toluca, Cruz Azul, Monterrey, Santos and America. The remaining two teams will be either Puebla/Pachuca or San Luis/Chivas.
SATURDAY
Monterrey vs. Morelia, 6 p.m. ET
While neither team needs to worry about reaching the Liguilla, both sides still have plenty to play for. Morelia are three points ahead of both America and Monterrey, and a lopsided loss here could give Monterrey the group title. A draw, conversely, would hand it over to Morelia. More importantly, Morelia could clinch the top spot in the playoffs with a victory regardless of other scores elsewhere - provided Toluca do not win by seven goals or some other ridiculous total like that. Morelia seem focused and determined heading into the match, but Monterrey too would likely prefer to close the season on a high. Monrterrey will not have Humberto Suazo and Osvaldo Martinez available as the duo are with Chile and Paraguay, respectively.
Prediction: Draw, 1-1.
Jaguares vs. Atlas, 6 p.m. ET
It's a season of what could have been for Jaguares. While los chiapanecos have secured the bottom of the group table, Jaguares do sit in a bit of rarified air. In the Apertura 2009 season, Jaguares had a 5-2-2 record on the road this season and finished with a league-high 17 road points. The next four clubs with the most road points - Monterrey, Puebla, Cruz Azul and Morelia - are all either in or on the verge of the Liguilla. But Jaguares' form at home was awful as the club managed just two points from an 0-5-2 mark in Chiapas. Atlas seem like a strong candidate to become Jaguares' first and only home conquest. With players trying to stay afloat in the top flight and trying to avoid sinking the team into the relegation zone, Jaguares seem motivated. Atlas, meanwhile, have had problems with finances and players pointing fingers at club executives, so their focus is probably elsewhere.
Prediction: Jaguares, 3-0.
Pachuca vs. Tigres, 6 p.m. ET
In theory, Pachuca's season is not over. Los Tuzos have 23 points, three back of Puebla, and both teams have one game left to play. However, Puebla sit on a plus-five goal-differential while Pachuca sit on minus-two. Thus, Pachuca would have to win, Puebla would need to lose and the differences in the results would have to equal or surpass seven. So, a five-goal win by Pachuca over Tigres and a two-goal loss by Puebla to Toluca would do it. While it is possible theoretically, it seems practically impossible. Especially if Pachuca cannot take care of the first order of business, which is to win by a lot of goals at Tigres.
Prediction: Draw, 2-2.
Puebla vs. Toluca, 6 p.m. ET
Puebla warned themselves against complacency. Although the club has a Liguilla spot all but secured, Puebla players got a taste of a lopsided rout a week ago against Cruz Azul when they lost 4-0 to la Maquina. A similar loss to Toluca coupled with a Pachuca rout at Tigres would end Puebla's season prematurely. But the club is motivated not only to erase the bad memories of their thrashing by Cruz Azul but to prove to themselves and the rest of the league that they belong in the postseason. A good showing would help restore faith and confidence in Puebla. Toluca, though, might have other thoughts as los Diablos are still vying for the top spot in the league table.
Prediction: Draw, 0-0.
Queretaro vs. San Luis, 8 p.m. ET
San Luis might not have as many points as their potential Liguilla brethren but los Gladiadores sit in a comfortable position nevertheless. A win over Queretaro would be enough to get San Luis into the postseason. While their season has been tumultuous - manager Juan Antonio Luna abruptly resigned midway through the campaign - San Luis' favorable position as the worst of the worst in Group 1 will be enough to get them through to the Liguilla. San Luis can finish no better than ninth in the overall table and could get into the playoffs despite finishing with less points than several other non-playoff teams. San Luis could lose to Gallos Blancos and still get into the postseason provided Chivas also lose or tie and clinch a spot that way. Should that happen, San Luis would have fewer points than Pachuca and Atlante and at best even with Tigres, all non-playoff teams. But San Luis wouldn't mind as long as they are playing next weekend.
Prediction: San Luis, 1-0.
Chivas vs. Cruz Azul, 8 p.m. ET
Chivas have their third manager of the season on the sidelines against a club that has been solid and consistent all season long, and in fact are peaking entering the postseason. It is remarkable, however, that Chivas still have a pulse. Luck has smiled on Chivas as Group 1 is the worst in the league but Chivas have no control over that. All the club can do is win and hope San Luis does not. That could be enough to get Chivas into the playoffs. If Chivas wins and San Luis ties, the odds of Chivas going through are slim unless Chivas can win by a boatload of goals. Beating Cruz Azul won't be easy, let alone by more than three or four goals. La Maquina are hoping to solidify a favorable spot in the overall table and get a strong seed in the playoffs. That sort of motivation could be enough to knock Chivas out of the playoffs before they even start.
Prediction: Cruz Azul, 2-1.
Atlante vs. Estudiantes, 10 p.m. ET
Both teams are out of the final party of the season and will be playing for pride in the final game of the Mexican Apertura 2009. Estudiantes are currently in fifth place of group three, and Atlante are placed in third place of the same group as well. While Estudiantes will count with a full squad, los Potros will be without Guillermo Rojas and Luis David Velasquez because of suspension. Atlante will try to close out the season with a win at home where they have only lost two of the seven games played. Estudiantes have held a similar record only losing two of their away games. Los Potros will still play more games this season because of their inclusion in the Club World Cup. Extra motivation will be added by Estudiantes as they will try to send off Bruno Marioni to his retirement from the game.
Prediction: Estudiantes, 2-1
SUNDAY
Pumas vs. Indios, 1 p.m. ET
Unfortunately for the Mexican Clausura 2009 champions they regained their form too late to defend their title. The misfortune extends to Indios because they will face a Pumas that has not lost in the past four games. Neither side can aspire to the Liguilla on the last day of the season, but Indios will be looking to add a positive note to their total so they can lean farther away from the relegation table; at the moment the team only has five points from the entire season--all from draws. Pumas might have to be with Efrain Valverde, goalkeeper Sergio Bernal although both are doubts and Fernando Morales because of injury. Missing will be Dario Veron and Martin Bravo because of participation with their national team. Alejandro Gonzales and Daniel Frias will be missing from Indios because of injury as well.
Prediction: Pumas, 1-0
Santos vs. America, 5 p.m. ET
With a brand new stadium as the stomping ground Santos will want to open their first game in the Mexican league at their new home with a victory. Both teams have qualified to the Liguilla and are looking to close out the game with pride and a better standing on the final eight table. Aquivaldo Mosquera is a doubt because of injury and Jean Beausejour because of national team duty with Chile. Santos will count on all of its players for the game and will also be coming off a four games without a win.
Prediction: America, 1-0
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