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College Soccer Professor: Handicapping the MAC Hermann Trophy
The Prof. gives his favorites for the MAC Hermann Trophy.
Dec 6, 2009 2:26:52 PM
By J.R. Eskilson
Last Wednesday, the Missouri Athletic Club announced the Hermann Trophy semi-finalists. The Hermann Trophy is the Heisman Trophy for college soccer, the most prestigious award in the sport. The College Soccer Professor is breaking down the race and giving the odds for every player left in contention.
Teal Bunbury, Forward, Sophomore, Akron
GP: 19 G: 17 A: 5
MAC Player of the Year
Goal.com Player of the Year
Odds: 2 to 1
Reason: He was the best player on the best team in the country. It seems simple, but there are two things that are working against Bunbury: 1.) He plays for a small school in a suspect conference. 2.) He is an underclassmen. It is very rare for an underclassmen to win. Still it is going to be too difficult for the voters to overlook how dominant Akron has been this year, especially Bunbury. For comparison sake, last year’s winner, Marcus Tracy, had 13 goals and 10 assists, or 36 points. Bunbury has 39 points, and his team has a better record.
Andre Akpan, Forward, Senior, Harvard
GP: 19 G: 12 A: 6
Ivy League Player of the Year
Odds: 5 to 1
Reason: This is his third trip to the semi-finalists list; if this award was given for body of work, then Akpan would be the favorite. Unfortunately for him, his numbers just do not look as good as Bunbury’s numbers, and his team won less games. It is a hard argument to make that he should be picking up the trophy this year. The best attribute that Akpan has working for him; he is the best senior on the list.
Anthony Ampaipitakwong, Midfield, Junior, Akron
GP: 22 G: 8 A: 5
All-MAC First Team
Odds: 8 to 1
Reason: He was the facilitator of the most efficient offense in the country. If he were a senior, he would probably have a legitimate case for the award instead of Bunbury but he is still one year away from that; so his nine fewer goals than his teammate do stand out.
Corben Bone, Midfield, Junior., Wake Forest
GP: 22 G: 2 A: 12
ACC Offensive Player of the Year
Odds: 10 to 1
Reason: He is the engine that runs the Wake Forest offense. His numbers are not the most impressive on paper but to fully appreciate Bone’s game, you have to watch him play. After all, he is the two-time ACC Offensive Player of the Year. It just does not seem like it is in the cards for him this year.
Kyle Nakazawa, Midfield/Forward, Senior, UCLA
GP: 19 G: 12 A: 7
All PAC-10 First Team
Odds: 15 to 1
Reason: This is crazy, but Nakazawa’s odds to win the Hermann Trophy are better than the PAC-10 Player of the Year, Danny Mwanga. Let me explain, Nakazawa played for a better team, and he is a senior. Still not buying it? Well think about it this way, in 2006, Kobe Bryant was widely regarded as the best player in the Pacific Division of the NBA. However, Steve Nash won the league MVP because his team had a better record. Nash=Nakazawa, Bryant=Mwanga. And yes, that was the perfect cross-sport analogy. Or I could just say that Marcus Tracy won the Hermann last year even though Bone was the ACC Offensive Player of the Year.
Danny Mwanga, Forward, Sophomore, Oregon State
GP: 18 G: 14 A:2
PAC-10 Player of the Year
Odds: 20 to 1
Reason: He was the dominant player on a team that was average. See Nakazawa.
Ike Opara, Defender, Junior, Wake Forest
GP: 15 G: 3 A:2
ACC Defensive Player of the Year
Odds: 30 to 1 Reason: Hate to say this, but defensive players are always underrated. Add that to the fact Opara missed seven games while with the U.S. U-20 National Team.
Tony Tchani, Midfield, Sophomore, Virginia
GP: 20 G: 7 A: 2
Odds: 35 to 1
Reason: The last month of the season, Tchani has been the best player in college soccer. Unfortunately, this award is based on the whole season and Tchani’s whole portfolio is not as impressive. He has put together a late season surge that put him on the map for any pundit that covers college soccer. There is just a very slim chance that a few weeks of brilliance would be enough to snag the best award in the game for an underclassmen.
Bobby Warshaw, Midfield/Defensive, Junior, Stanford
GP: 20 G: 6 A: 1
All-PAC-10 First Team
Odds: 40 to 1
Reason: Something I failed to recognize while talking about the previous two PAC-10 players, West Coast players do not win this award because there is an East Coast bias. It’s true. Sasha Victorine is the last player to win from the PAC-10, and that was in 1999. It has been a decade. COME ON! Moving on.
Garrett Webb, Forward, Senior, Drake
GP: 23 G: 13 A: 5
MVC Player of the Year
Odds: 45 to 1
Reason: Webb will be overlooked because of his school and the conference they play in. It was a good year for the senior, just not good enough.
Ryan Kinne, Midfield, Junior, Monmouth
GP: 22 G: 10 A:7
NEC Player of the Year
Odds: 50 to 1
Reason: As much as I love the story of the great year Monmouth had, it is just too hard to foresee an outcome where Kinne had a realistic shot at the trophy. His numbers borderline on good not great. His team’s record was tremendous but not the best in the country. His competition was among the weakest of any player on this list. This is no knock on his game or on his team, but big time awards go to big time schools. That is just how the system works.
Toni Stahl, Midfield, Senior, Connecticut
GP: 18 G: 0 A: 3
Big East Midfielder of the Year
Odds: 55 to 1
Reason: For a defensive midfielder to win an award of this caliber, he has to be so commanding that everyone recognizes his merit. Stahl may have been the protector of a very good defense, but he was not forceful enough to legitimately throw his name into this hat.
Conor O'Brien, Midfield, Senior, Bucknell
GP: 23 G: 11 A: 9
Patriot League MVP
Odds: 60 to 1
Reason: Just to finally drive the nail into the coffin, small school! This is not a tournament where we could have a Cinderella. Not enough voters watch the Patriot League for him to get a fair shake.
Zach Loyd, Defender, Senior, North Carolina
GP: 15 G: 2 A:2
All-ACC First Team
Odds: 80 to 1
Reason: He has done an excellent job filling in the Tar Heel defense; but again, defenders are disrespected when it comes to awards.
Colin Rolfe, Forward, Sophomore, Louisville
GP: 20 G: 10 A: 2
All-Big East First Team
Odds: 100 to 1
Reason: A down year for the Big East does not help Rolfe’s case neither does being an underclassmen. In addition, his numbers are not as impressive as the candidates before him.
Last Wednesday, the Missouri Athletic Club announced the Hermann Trophy semi-finalists. The Hermann Trophy is the Heisman Trophy for college soccer, the most prestigious award in the sport. The College Soccer Professor is breaking down the race and giving the odds for every player left in contention.
Teal Bunbury, Forward, Sophomore, Akron
GP: 19 G: 17 A: 5
MAC Player of the Year
Goal.com Player of the Year
Odds: 2 to 1
Reason: He was the best player on the best team in the country. It seems simple, but there are two things that are working against Bunbury: 1.) He plays for a small school in a suspect conference. 2.) He is an underclassmen. It is very rare for an underclassmen to win. Still it is going to be too difficult for the voters to overlook how dominant Akron has been this year, especially Bunbury. For comparison sake, last year’s winner, Marcus Tracy, had 13 goals and 10 assists, or 36 points. Bunbury has 39 points, and his team has a better record.
Andre Akpan, Forward, Senior, Harvard
GP: 19 G: 12 A: 6
Ivy League Player of the Year
Odds: 5 to 1
Reason: This is his third trip to the semi-finalists list; if this award was given for body of work, then Akpan would be the favorite. Unfortunately for him, his numbers just do not look as good as Bunbury’s numbers, and his team won less games. It is a hard argument to make that he should be picking up the trophy this year. The best attribute that Akpan has working for him; he is the best senior on the list.
Anthony Ampaipitakwong, Midfield, Junior, Akron
GP: 22 G: 8 A: 5
All-MAC First Team
Odds: 8 to 1
Reason: He was the facilitator of the most efficient offense in the country. If he were a senior, he would probably have a legitimate case for the award instead of Bunbury but he is still one year away from that; so his nine fewer goals than his teammate do stand out.
Corben Bone, Midfield, Junior., Wake Forest
GP: 22 G: 2 A: 12
ACC Offensive Player of the Year
Odds: 10 to 1
Reason: He is the engine that runs the Wake Forest offense. His numbers are not the most impressive on paper but to fully appreciate Bone’s game, you have to watch him play. After all, he is the two-time ACC Offensive Player of the Year. It just does not seem like it is in the cards for him this year.
Kyle Nakazawa, Midfield/Forward, Senior, UCLA
GP: 19 G: 12 A: 7
All PAC-10 First Team
Odds: 15 to 1
Reason: This is crazy, but Nakazawa’s odds to win the Hermann Trophy are better than the PAC-10 Player of the Year, Danny Mwanga. Let me explain, Nakazawa played for a better team, and he is a senior. Still not buying it? Well think about it this way, in 2006, Kobe Bryant was widely regarded as the best player in the Pacific Division of the NBA. However, Steve Nash won the league MVP because his team had a better record. Nash=Nakazawa, Bryant=Mwanga. And yes, that was the perfect cross-sport analogy. Or I could just say that Marcus Tracy won the Hermann last year even though Bone was the ACC Offensive Player of the Year.
Danny Mwanga, Forward, Sophomore, Oregon State
GP: 18 G: 14 A:2
PAC-10 Player of the Year
Odds: 20 to 1
Reason: He was the dominant player on a team that was average. See Nakazawa.
Ike Opara, Defender, Junior, Wake Forest
GP: 15 G: 3 A:2
ACC Defensive Player of the Year
Odds: 30 to 1 Reason: Hate to say this, but defensive players are always underrated. Add that to the fact Opara missed seven games while with the U.S. U-20 National Team.
Tony Tchani, Midfield, Sophomore, Virginia
GP: 20 G: 7 A: 2
Odds: 35 to 1
Reason: The last month of the season, Tchani has been the best player in college soccer. Unfortunately, this award is based on the whole season and Tchani’s whole portfolio is not as impressive. He has put together a late season surge that put him on the map for any pundit that covers college soccer. There is just a very slim chance that a few weeks of brilliance would be enough to snag the best award in the game for an underclassmen.
Bobby Warshaw, Midfield/Defensive, Junior, Stanford
GP: 20 G: 6 A: 1
All-PAC-10 First Team
Odds: 40 to 1
Reason: Something I failed to recognize while talking about the previous two PAC-10 players, West Coast players do not win this award because there is an East Coast bias. It’s true. Sasha Victorine is the last player to win from the PAC-10, and that was in 1999. It has been a decade. COME ON! Moving on.
Garrett Webb, Forward, Senior, Drake
GP: 23 G: 13 A: 5
MVC Player of the Year
Odds: 45 to 1
Reason: Webb will be overlooked because of his school and the conference they play in. It was a good year for the senior, just not good enough.
Ryan Kinne, Midfield, Junior, Monmouth
GP: 22 G: 10 A:7
NEC Player of the Year
Odds: 50 to 1
Reason: As much as I love the story of the great year Monmouth had, it is just too hard to foresee an outcome where Kinne had a realistic shot at the trophy. His numbers borderline on good not great. His team’s record was tremendous but not the best in the country. His competition was among the weakest of any player on this list. This is no knock on his game or on his team, but big time awards go to big time schools. That is just how the system works.
Toni Stahl, Midfield, Senior, Connecticut
GP: 18 G: 0 A: 3
Big East Midfielder of the Year
Odds: 55 to 1
Reason: For a defensive midfielder to win an award of this caliber, he has to be so commanding that everyone recognizes his merit. Stahl may have been the protector of a very good defense, but he was not forceful enough to legitimately throw his name into this hat.
Conor O'Brien, Midfield, Senior, Bucknell
GP: 23 G: 11 A: 9
Patriot League MVP
Odds: 60 to 1
Reason: Just to finally drive the nail into the coffin, small school! This is not a tournament where we could have a Cinderella. Not enough voters watch the Patriot League for him to get a fair shake.
Zach Loyd, Defender, Senior, North Carolina
GP: 15 G: 2 A:2
All-ACC First Team
Odds: 80 to 1
Reason: He has done an excellent job filling in the Tar Heel defense; but again, defenders are disrespected when it comes to awards.
Colin Rolfe, Forward, Sophomore, Louisville
GP: 20 G: 10 A: 2
All-Big East First Team
Odds: 100 to 1
Reason: A down year for the Big East does not help Rolfe’s case neither does being an underclassmen. In addition, his numbers are not as impressive as the candidates before him.
J.R. Eskilson writes a weekly NCAA column on Tuesday for Goal.com.
For more college soccer news visit Goal.com's Youth Soccer page.
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