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College Soccer Professor: Titillating Trivia And Preseason Predictions

Goal.com’s J.R. Eskilson takes a historical look at the most significant part of the NCAA season, and makes his pre-season pick for the Final Four of the 2009 College Cup

Sep 1, 2009 11:54:38 PM

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Jason Garey University of Maryland

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By J.R. Eskilson

With some of the first games in the 2009 NCAA men’s soccer season kicking off this weekend, we take a look ahead to the most influential part of the season, College Cup. The three-week long tournament is the most treasured aspect of this sport. Thus, we delve into it with these pertinent truths of the big dance.

College Cup Facts: Since 2001, when the tournament expanded to forty-eight teams, there has only been one #1 seed to win it all (Maryland, 2005). In comparison, the #2 seed has won the title three times. Over the last three years, the home team has won 71% of the first round games and 69% of the second round games.

The value of home field advantage is extremely important to a team for advancing deep in the College Cup.

St. John’s in 1996 is the last team to win the NCAA tournament without having made a Final Four appearance in prior years. Those are twelve champions that had Final Four experience before winning it all.

Historically Supported Predictions: The losing team from the national championship in the prior season has not reappeared in the College Cup Final Four in the following year in the last thirty years. Sorry to break the bad news North Carolina fans, but your team has the odds against them.

Atlantic Coast Conference has won four titles this decade, ACC won four titles in the ‘90s, ACC won four titles in the ‘80s. Apologies ACC, this might not be your year to lift the title. Over the last ten years, only twice has the winner come from the #1 and #4 seed’s side of the bracket. Clearly it is better to be on the #2 and #3 seed’s side. (For those numerically impaired, visually that means the team comes from the right side of the brackets.)

Since the tournament expanded to forty-eight teams, there was only one Final Four without a team that exited in the third round in the prior year. Thus, a team with a third round exit in 2008 is very likely to be among the last four teams standing.

Also, ten out of the last forty teams (25%) to appear in the Final Four were third round exits from the previous year. Over the last five years, that percentage jumps up to 30% (six of the last twenty teams). Over the past ten years, ten of the forty teams (25%) in the Final Four had a first round exit two years prior to their appearance.

Statistically speaking, first round 07 and third round 08 makes elite company and strong odds for Final Four birth. Find out which Ivy League team this is in the prediction section later.

The date of the College Cup final has fallen on an even number seven of the last ten years. Of the three times it has been on an odd number (1,3,5,7,etc), a West Coast team has won it twice (UCSB and UCLA) with New Mexico losing in the final to Maryland the other time. This year’s final occurs on the 13th of December. Strong odds are in favor of a West Coast team in the final.

Final Four Prediction: Dartmouth: The Ivy League team that fits the bill: exit third round 08 and exit first round 07. Over the last ten years, there have been nine other teams with the same historical circumstance. Of those nine teams, four of them have appeared in the Final Four. If we take out the two teams that did not make the tournament in the following years, four out of seven teams or over a 50% chance that once the Big Green makes the tournament they will be in the Final Four. Loving the odds on this dark horse.

Wake Forest: Final Four is in North Carolina, and one home team has to make it. Wake Forest appears to be in fine form in the pre-season even after losing all their stars last season. Four years in a row in the Final Four for the Demon Deacons.

California: Flipped a coin. Came up heads. That is how close the gap is between the Big West and the Pac 10. Easily this could be UC Irvine (or even UCSB), but the coin said Cal, and they are a very talented squad that it makes sense for my West Coast pick.

Wisconsin: Well the last three picks fit the mold, this one is a bit of a gut reaction that could go either way. This is the pick of the team that can get hot at the right time. Last season, Wisconsin lost SIX games by one goal! With a new coach, Todd Yeagley, this team should put the pieces together and play up to potential.

Television game of the week: Bradley vs. Memphis: Friday, September 4th, 11:00 PM (EST) FSC: Not the most enticing match up on paper with both teams below 150 in the RPI from last year and neither is currently nationally ranked, but there are a few players worth a watch in this game.

Senior Forward, Chris Cutshaw, Butler, is the Missouri Valley Conference active leading scorer with 22 goals in his career. He scored the only goal of the Butler pre-season. True freshman, J.J. Greer, from Memphis has been solid in the pre-season with a goal and an assist. Memphis sophomore, Thomas Shannon, had three assists in the pre-season. All of his assists have come on set pieces which has accounted for 60% of the offense for Memphis in their two pre-season games. Bradley University is already in session, so there is potential for a good crowd. Last year, their best attendance was 1,359. Hope for a number similar for the nationally televised game.

Follow the College Soccer Professor at: twitter.com/NCAAsoccer

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