|
|
Is The USA Overperforming Or Underperforming Their Talent?
Aug 20, 2010 2:25:00 PM
By Noah Davis
A common comment in articles positing that Bob Bradley might stay on at the coach of the United States Men's National Team reads something like this: "Ugh. Bradley is horrible. We'll never win a World Cup with him in charge."
Which, of course, is accurate but absurd. Even if you mixed Brian Clough, Arsene Wenger, Sir Alex Ferguson, and anyone else you wanted into the perfect manager, the Americans still wouldn't win the biggest sporting prize in the world. At this stage, they simply don't have the talent.
It does, however, beg the question of whether the Stars and Stripes performed as well or better than they should under Bradley. There's no definite way to answer this query - if there was, hiring and firing managers would be simple - but it's possible to make an educated guess. What follows is one attempt at doing so.
In international football, the manger's job is to maximize the ability of the players he selects. He does little to develop their skills; instead he focuses on tactics and formation. Therefore, the talent level of a side is based upon the skill sets its individual players bring to the national team camp.
Now, how do you determine how talented a squad is? One way is to look at where its players spend their club seasons. The better the player, the better the club he'll join. (At least in theory.) With that in mind, here is a look at 16 teams that reached the knockout stage of the World Cup. I used the UEFA league coefficients and ranked squads based on how many men they had playing in the Europe's top 10 leagues.
Country (Number of players in top four UEFA leagues/ Number of players in the next six)
Japan (2/2)
Korea Republic (3/2)
Mexico (5/4)
Paraguay (7/1)
Chile (7/3)
Uruguay (7/6)
United States (11/1)
Slovakia (9/5)
Ghana (13/3)
Portugal (10/12)
Netherlands (13/9)
Argentina (14/3)
Brazil (15/4)
England (23/0)
Germany (23/0)
Spain (23/0)
(Teams in Bold made it into the final eight)
This system is not without its problems. First, it doesn't account for non-European leagues such as Mexico's Primera División, Major League Soccer, or any South American and Asian leagues. Also, it doesn't note a footballer's playing time on his team or the quality of his team. Michael Essien starting at Chelsea is more impressive than Jonathan Spector sitting on the bench at West Ham.
But it does provide some sense of relative quality. It shouldn't be surprising that Spain, Germany, and England have teams comprised of players who call the world's best leagues their home. Nor is it unusual that the two Asian squads have the least number of players doing so.
The United States sits in the middle, the sixth or seventh "least-talented" side on the list depending on where you rank Uruguay. (It's also worth noting that Italy, France, and Cote d'Ivoire would place ahead of the U.S.) That's about where you'd expect, although I was surprised that only one player (Carlos Bocanegra at Rennes) spent his club time on a team in one of the leagues ranked fifth through 10th. The team is improving, building talent slowly, but no where near one of the best in the world.
The conclusion of this subjective, imperfect system: Reaching the second round is a reasonable expectation for the Red, White, and Blue. Winning the World Cup? Not at all, no matter who's at the helm.
Noah Davis (@noahedavis) covers the United States Men's National Team for Goal.com.
Visit the U.S. national team page on Goal.com for more and join Goal.com USA's Facebook fan page!
Which, of course, is accurate but absurd. Even if you mixed Brian Clough, Arsene Wenger, Sir Alex Ferguson, and anyone else you wanted into the perfect manager, the Americans still wouldn't win the biggest sporting prize in the world. At this stage, they simply don't have the talent.
It does, however, beg the question of whether the Stars and Stripes performed as well or better than they should under Bradley. There's no definite way to answer this query - if there was, hiring and firing managers would be simple - but it's possible to make an educated guess. What follows is one attempt at doing so.
In international football, the manger's job is to maximize the ability of the players he selects. He does little to develop their skills; instead he focuses on tactics and formation. Therefore, the talent level of a side is based upon the skill sets its individual players bring to the national team camp.
Now, how do you determine how talented a squad is? One way is to look at where its players spend their club seasons. The better the player, the better the club he'll join. (At least in theory.) With that in mind, here is a look at 16 teams that reached the knockout stage of the World Cup. I used the UEFA league coefficients and ranked squads based on how many men they had playing in the Europe's top 10 leagues.
Country (Number of players in top four UEFA leagues/ Number of players in the next six)
Japan (2/2)
Korea Republic (3/2)
Mexico (5/4)
Paraguay (7/1)
Chile (7/3)
Uruguay (7/6)
United States (11/1)
Slovakia (9/5)
Ghana (13/3)
Portugal (10/12)
Netherlands (13/9)
Argentina (14/3)
Brazil (15/4)
England (23/0)
Germany (23/0)
Spain (23/0)
(Teams in Bold made it into the final eight)
This system is not without its problems. First, it doesn't account for non-European leagues such as Mexico's Primera División, Major League Soccer, or any South American and Asian leagues. Also, it doesn't note a footballer's playing time on his team or the quality of his team. Michael Essien starting at Chelsea is more impressive than Jonathan Spector sitting on the bench at West Ham.
But it does provide some sense of relative quality. It shouldn't be surprising that Spain, Germany, and England have teams comprised of players who call the world's best leagues their home. Nor is it unusual that the two Asian squads have the least number of players doing so.
The United States sits in the middle, the sixth or seventh "least-talented" side on the list depending on where you rank Uruguay. (It's also worth noting that Italy, France, and Cote d'Ivoire would place ahead of the U.S.) That's about where you'd expect, although I was surprised that only one player (Carlos Bocanegra at Rennes) spent his club time on a team in one of the leagues ranked fifth through 10th. The team is improving, building talent slowly, but no where near one of the best in the world.
The conclusion of this subjective, imperfect system: Reaching the second round is a reasonable expectation for the Red, White, and Blue. Winning the World Cup? Not at all, no matter who's at the helm.
Noah Davis (@noahedavis) covers the United States Men's National Team for Goal.com.
Visit the U.S. national team page on Goal.com for more and join Goal.com USA's Facebook fan page!
Goal.com Poll
Poll runs from Aug 22, 2010 to Aug 27, 2010
Poll runs from Aug 22, 2010 to Aug 27, 2010
Has Bob Bradley over or under performed as U.S. coach?
Did as well as can be expected.
49.72%
Did well with mediocre players.
33.44%
Did poorly with players who can do better.
16.84%
Make Your Prediction
USA - Antigua and Barbuda
USA
Antigua and Barbuda
Prediction Submitted
Most Popular Predictions
-
USA 8-0 Antigua and Barbuda
- 13.89 %
-
USA 5-0 Antigua and Barbuda
- 12.5 %
-
USA 4-0 Antigua and Barbuda
- 12.5 %
Inside Goal.Com
-
RIGG: Anelka struggling against the current in Shanghai
Nicolas Anelka went against the grain when he moved to Shanghai. Now he's finding that coaching and gelling tactically is like swimming against the tide.
-
ROGERS: Bradley should command a bidding war among Serie A teams
Chievo is currently shopping the American midfielder and several Italian clubs have shown interest.
-
ISOLA: Neymar-led Brazil should be considered the 2014 WC favorite
Neymar was brilliant as Brazil easily handled the United States with early World Cup preparations officially underway.
-
LATHAM: Mexico using summer friendlies to build depth
With World Cup qualifying to begin in June, Mexico is using three U.S.-hosted friendlies to build squad depth.
-
McCARTHY: Harrisburg springs its wildest Open Cup upset to date
The City Islanders fought back from three goals down with nine minutes to play and won the game on penalty kicks in a stunning game on a wild night for the U.S. Open Cup.