Bueno's Views: Little Mix Up With Tri's Initial Roster

The long-awaited initial roster for the Mexican national team is out, and while it is far from the definitive list of players who will represent El Tri in South Africa, the roster provides a starting point and some possible insight into what Javier Aguirre is thinking.

As expected, the roster is a mix of veterans and youth. And as expected, some big-name players were left far off the list and apparently have little to no chance of making the World Cup squad.

Aguirre's formula has worked thus far - a Gold Cup title and a complete 180-degree turnaround in qualifying speaks to that - but that does not there is no room for criticism.

Easily the most head-scratching decision is the choice to omit Pavel Pardo from the squad. Pardo has all the qualities any national team manager would normally covet: he is experienced, having won league titles in Mexico and Germany; he is a two-time World Cup veteran; his set-piece ability is among the best in Mexico; he has been captain for club and country and has leadership qualities necessary for both.

And yet, Aguirre has no room in his midfield for Pardo while making room for Luis Miguel Noriega and Braulio Luna. Both Noriega and Luna have upside - the former more than the latter - but neither is anywhere near Pardo's level.

To a lesser extent, veterans also wondering where they went wrong are Oswaldo Sanchez and Antonio Naelson "Zinha." Sanchez's dreams of South Africa are probably just that, dreams. Aguirre's clear-cut number one 'keeper is Guillermo Ochoa, who is not part of this list. In fact, because Ochoa is the number one 'keeper, there is no need to take him to play against Bolivia. Luis Ernesto Michel and Jonathan Orozco could split time in goal against Bolivia, and each is apparently in the running for one of the two other 'keeper spots. If Aguirre plays the hand he's played and relies on a veteran third-string 'keeper, Oscar Perez may have a shot at the World Cup squad. Regardless, Perez would get the call well before Sanchez. Meanwhile, Zinha should also give up any dreams of South Africa. A capable player with Toluca, Zinha fell out of favor with El Tri even before Aguirre took the job.

Of the players on the roster, the player with the most upside seems to be Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez. Since earning more playing time with Chivas during the Clausura '09 season, Hernandez has been a bit of a revelation. He is enjoying his finest moment now, as he has eight goals in five games with Chivas. Injury has been about the only thing that has been able to slow him - he missed Wednesday's match in Pachuca due to injury.

Hernandez seemingly has a shot at South Africa. He might seem to have some drawbacks: he did not play one minute during qualifying, he is relatively untested internationally and there are other forwards who Aguirre has given opportunities to that might be ready to blossom. But four years ago, then-manager Ricardo Lavolpe counted on another player who was in a similar position, and Andres Guardado turned out to be an asset in Germany and beyond. Hernandez could quickly become such a player for Aguirre, but he must show something against Bolivia in order to get his campaign off on the right foot.

Overall, the roster can be divided up into three parts: players who have their spots all but secure, players who have a chance of making the squad and those who are longshots at best.

Spots Secured: Efrain Juarez, Jonny Magallon, Gerardo Torrado, Israel Castro, Cuauhtemoc Blanco.

Torrado and Blanco are sure-fire starters, while the other three are right behind them.

Chance At World Cup: Luis Ernesto Michel, Jonathan Orozco, Paul Aguilar, Pablo Barrera, Braulio Luna, Javier Hernandez, Aldo De Nigris, Enrique Esqueda.

Michel and Orozco would be good options for one of the spots behind Ochoa. Can they handle the rigors of the starting spot should Ochoa go down with an injury? That remains to be seen, but their recent league play suggests that they would do well. Coupled with his start in league, Barrera could easily move into the above class, but he had played himself out of regular playing time last summer. Luna is the midfield version of Francisco Palencia, and gives the squad a gritty, tough, experienced leader. Hernandez, De Nigris and Esqueda are collectively an intriguing group. Hernandez has the most upside but De Nigris could be the one to break through on El Tri, given his ability to rise to the challenge presented by high-level games.

Longshots: Hugo Ayala, Jorge Torres Nilo, Adrian Aldrete, Luis Miguel Noriega, Angel Reyna.

Ayala is an excellent prospect but he is starting too far down the pecking order on the backline. Noriega and Reyna are fine league players but to expect each to make an instant impact on El Tri is expecting too much.

Luis Bueno is Goal.com's Mexico editor.