Mexico

Bueno's Views: El Tri's Path To South Africa

Mexico might seem to be in a precarious situation in World Cup qualifying. But just how treacherous is Mexico's path? Goal.com's Luis Bueno takes a look at Mexico's road to South Africa.

Jun 9, 2009 2:33:05 PM

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By Luis Bueno

When Mexico fell to El Salvador on Saturday, the road to the World Cup suddenly became murkier.

No longer is qualification a given when it comes to Mexico - a 1-3-0 record through four games will attest to that.

But not all hope is lost. Sure, Mexico sits in fifth place and are currently out of the World Cup, but plenty of soccer lies ahead for El Tri. In fact, there are 18 points to be won, and Mexico could still stand to drop a point or two and find themselves in a World Cup spot.

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Here's a game-by-game plan of what could happen if Mexico plays its cards right, one that could help Mexico gain a World Cup spot and settle the nerves of Tri supporters everywhere.

June 10: vs. Trinidad & Tobago

Mexico sits on three points entering their home game against Trinidad, who like most every other CONCACAF team can only recount tales of woe and despair when playing in Azteca. Eight years ago, Mexico beat Trinidad 2-0 in a match that helped continue restoring faith in El Tri.

A win now is an absolute must. If Mexico drops a single point from this game, the path to the World Cup will be nearly impossible to traverse. The scenario, though, sets up nicely for El Tri. A wounded team will find it relieving to go back home and play in El Tri's dominant stomping grounds.

Aug. 12: vs. United States

The Gold Cup should be preparation for the final stretch of qualifying, which will start off with a visit from the Americans.

Now, a home game against the U.S. may seem easy enough. The Americans perenially wilt under the pressure of Azteca, and if the Americans were so terrible in Estadio Saprissa and, to a lesser extent Estadio Cuscatlan, what's to say the U.S. will fare any better in the toughest venue in the region?

The difference is this: the Americans want nothing more than to beat Mexico in Mexico. American fans demand it, and the players see that as a potentially historic achievement. Winning in San Salvador is not, and neither is winning in San Jose.

A tough and determined American team could hold the key to qualifying. If Mexico beats the U.S. here, El Tri would have a bit of momentum, with nine points through six games.

Sept. 5: at Costa Rica

This is potentially the biggest challenge facing Mexico. If El Tri lost in Honduras and El Salvador, how could they expect to pull out three points from the toughest Central American venue?

Sure, Mexico won there in 2005 - with Oscar Perez in goal, no doubt - but that was a significantly stronger and more stable Tri squad. There is still plenty of time from now until September so the stability part could be better than it was for the El Salvador game.

If Mexico loses only one game the rest of the way, this should be it. This is Mexico's margin for error. Mexico can lose this game and still qualify for South Africa provided the team does not drop points elsewhere, which is a big provision.

Sept. 9: vs. Honduras

Perhaps Javier Aguirre's shining moment from his first go-round with Mexico was Mexico's 3-0 win over Honduras to close out the 2001 Hexagonal. That victory pushed Mexico into the World Cup.

A similar performance this time around probably won't elicit such a massive response and have such a fallout as that game, but if this turns out to be Mexico's fourth home victory, the road to South Africa will be smoother than before.

This would be Mexico's 13th, 14th and 15th points, and with six points to claim from here on out, a World Cup spot would be there for the taking.

Oct. 10: vs. El Salvador

It seems difficult to imagine El Salvador leaving Estadio Azteca with nothing but a tough defeat. However, it seemed difficult to imagine Mexico having three losses in their first four World Cup qualifiers.

Still, this game could send Mexico through to the World Cup. Everything has to work perfectly at home, in Estadio Azteca, the biggest bargaining chip El Tri have remaining. If games against Trinidad, the U.S. and Honduras go in Mexico's favor, this game could feature a post-game African-heavy celebration.

Oct. 14: at Trinidad & Tobago

This could be a bit of a vacation for El Tri, should Mexico take care of business at home. But if Mexico are not careful, this could turn into a must-win.

A must-win in Trinidad won't exactly be simple. Mexico lost there in 2005 and gained just a point during the 2001 Hexagonal visit to Port-of-Spain.

Still, if all goes well for Aguirre and Mexico, it will be in large part to Estadio Azteca. And that could be enough to settle fears and send Mexico to yet another World Cup.

Luis Bueno is the Mexico editor for Goal.com.

Visit Goal.com for more coverage of the Mexican national team.

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