Mexican Primera Weekend Preview: Jornada 17

By César García

One week remains for the conclusion of the regular season of the Torneo Apertura 2008, and with no more pending matches, only three teams have managed to qualify: 
San Luis, Pumas and Atlante.  

For their part,  Necaxa, Puebla, Jaguares and Monterrey have been eliminated from the competition.

It is left to be known what five clubs will complete the quarterfinals, as 11 teams continue with possibilities of participating in the Liguilla.

For those of you not familiar with the format of the Mexican League, there are 18 weeks to the Torneo.  The 18 teams are divided into 3 groups, with the top two teams from each group directly qualifying for a playoff phase called Liguilla. The two best third-place teams that are positioned higher in the table complete the eight teams that advance.

While no team will be relegated at the end of this Torneo, teams near the bottom of the relegation percentage table, like Puebla, Necaxa, Tecos, Tigres and Indios, will aim to finish the present campaign earning the most points possible.  To avoid being heavily compromised in the relegation zone the following Torneo Clausura 2009, when relegation takes effect.
   
Saturday, 15 November, 2008
(home teams listed first, all times local)
17:00  Tecos - Puebla
17:00  Cruz Azul - Jaguares
17:00  Monterrey - Pumas
19:00  Pachuca - Atlas
19:00  Chivas - Indios

Sunday, 16 November, 2008
12:00  Morelia - Tigres
12:00  Toluca - San Luis
16:00  Necaxa - América
16:00  Santos - Atlante

Tecos - Puebla
Due to their negative four week run, Tecos complicated their qualification options and now depend on other results. 

A victory for the Tecolotes would not be enough, because they will need Cruz Azul, Morelia, Tigres and Toluca to lose.

On paper, they have everything in their favor to earn a victory, with an accessible home match against an already eliminated Puebla.

The current mood of each team will be a determining factor, because while Puebla has nothing to lose they are fresh off a victory against Chivas last week and will hope to continue on the path of victory to not fall further in the relegation zone. 

While the Tecolotes suffered two defeats in one week and will be pressured for a win at home.

In Group 2, Tecos is in the fourth spot with 22 points.  Any result other than a victory for the Zapopan side will eliminate them from the competition.

Cruz Azul - Jaguares
This is a high risk match for Cruz Azul, who need a victory to qualify and earn the trust of their faithful.  

With no playoff possibilities left, Jaguares have nothing to lose and will try to complicate the Cementeros to end the season on a high-note.  

La Máquina are in the third spot with 23 points in the complicated Group 2.  They can still qualify even without a victory, but will depend on the results of group rivals.

With a draw, they need Tecos to not earn a single point, that Chivas do not win and that América lose or draw; If América wins, it cannot be by more than two goals.

If Cruz Azul loses, they need Tecos not to add points, that Chivas and América lose and for Atlas not to defeat Pachuca by more than three goals.

Monterrey - Pumas
Both sides will not be playing for their qualification in this encounter, since Pumas wrapped their ticket last weekend and Monterrey has been eliminated from the competition.

Still, both Pumas and Rayados have their individual reasons to earn the three points.

Monterrey will try to give one last joy to their faithful with a victory, but most important they need to start earning as many points possible to avoid relegation problems next campaign.

The Universitarios will be motivated by two consecutive victories which earned them a playoff berth, and they will try do make it three in a row to consolidate themselves in the second general spot.

With a victory for Pumas and a defeat for San Luis, the UNAM side will end the regular season as the new superlider.

Pumas is at the top of Group 2 and in the second spot of classification with 26 points, three points behind overall leader San Luis.

Pachuca - Atlas
In one of the most interesting matches of the week, Pachuca and Atlas both know that their qualification is heavily compromised, since it no longer depends on them.

Both squads find themselves in this situation due to the irregular form and lack of consistency they displayed throughout the season.

Last week, the Tuzos let escape a perfect opportunity for their qualification when they lost against Jaguares.  

Pachuca’s qualification is heavily dependent on the result of the match between Santos and Atlante. 

With a victory, they need Atlante to defeat Santos.  If the Tuzos draw in their match against Atlas, Santos need to lose by more than two goals.

For their part, the Rojinegros are in search of a miracle to advance but they must first do their part and defeat Pachuca, because any other result will bring an end to their campaign.

Atlas need to win by a scandalous score and wait for a favorable combination of results to know their fortune, since Tigres, América, Cruz Azul, Chivas and Tecos need to lose.

Pachuca is in the third spot of Group 1 with 20 points, while the Zorros are in the fourth spot of the third group with 21 points.

Chivas - Indios
Simliar to the Atlas and Pachuca match, the Liguilla options for Chivas and Indios are no longer in their hands.

The Rebaño Sagrado have the better options, but they probably lament their decision to field reserves in last weekend’s loss to Puebla because now they face a complicated panorama. 

Add to that a midweek home loss in the Semifinals of the Sudamericana and they will be determined to win at any costs against Indios and wait for a combination of results.

To qualify with a victory, they depend on defeats for Cruz Azul and Tecos, or for Tigres to draw with Morelia.

In case of a draw, their qualification will be difficult and convoluted since they will require Tigres, Atlante and Cruz Azul to lose by goleadas, Tecos to not earn a point or lose by a scandalous score, and for Santos, Atlas, Pachuca and América to lose.

Surprisingly, Indios still have options to qualify that are not as complex.  The Tribu will depend on their own victory against Chivas, but will hope for Santos and Pachuca defeats.  

At this point of the Torneo, the bordertown side has made it their primary objective to earn as many points as possible to fully abandon the relegation zone come next season.

The Indios are in the fourth spot of the first group with 19 points.  In turn, Chivas are in the fifth spot of the second sector with 22 units.

Morelia - Tigres
Another high risk encounter, between two clubs with good numbers that can qualify with numerous combinations, including with their own defeat.

Despite a loss last weekend against Atlas, Morelia has enjoyed one of the most consistent forms of all teams this season that has taken them to the favorable positions of their group and the general table.

If given the appropriate results any result from this match can send Morelia to the Liguilla, but destiny is in their hands and a victory against Tigres will be enough to assure their pass to the quarterfinal round.

Tigres lost a crucial group three match against Toluca last week which could have guaranteed their qualification with anticipation.  They stand firmly in the qualification zone with 23 solid points and depend on a victory for their direct qualification.  

Still, the Nuevo León side can qualify with a draw or a loss, as long as numerous results fall in their favor.

The numbers for both squads have them fully invested in the qualification zone.  With 23 points, Tigres is in the sixth overall spot and in the third spot of Group 3.  While Morelia is in the second spot of Group 2 and is fourth overall with 24 points.

Toluca - San Luis
An attractive match featuring two squads with different agendas.  

Superlider San Luis reserved their playoff spot in the Jornada 15, so their intention will be to preserve and finish the season in the overall leader position. 

A victory will guarantee that feat for the Gladiadores, but in case of a defeat, may relinquish the spot to either Pumas or Atlante.  San Luis tops the third group and the general table with 29 points.

The Diablos Rojos are fresh from a vital away victory against group rival Tigres which moved them to the second spot of the third group with 24 points. 

A home victory for Toluca will allow them to consolidate the direct qualification spot of their group and see them through, but with any other result they will rely on group rival Tigres.

In case of a draw, they can qualify if Morelia defeats Tigres. 

If Toluca loses against San Luis, they are at the mercy of Tigres who can send them packing if they defeat Morelia by more than two goals.

Necaxa - América
After a miserable start to the season, América experienced a resurgence in the second half that has them with slight possibilities to try and rescue their campaign.  

Even if their qualification is complicated and depends on others, the fact that the date of the match was pushed back and they end the regular season against their eliminated younger ‘sibling’ Necaxa, has raised a few eyebrows.

Controversy aside, the reality is that both sides have too much at stake in this match.

Águilas continue with faint signs of life in the fight for a spot in the quarterfinals, as long as they do not tie or lose and benefit from favorable scores in other matches.  

America’s only qualification option depends on their victory and that group rivals Cruz Azul, Chivas and Tecos do not win, along with any result other than a draw in the Morelia vs. Tigres match. 

The Águilas are in the fifth spot of the second group with 21 points.

The Rayos have been eliminated for some time now, but they need to add points to prevent another disaster. 

Necaxa currently occupy the last spot in both the third sector and the general table with 14 points, but they face the harsh reality of falling to the last spot of the relegation table if they lose and Puebla wins.  

Despite their position, they have experienced three unbeaten weeks in which they are playing good football and can easily cause problems for their older ‘brother.’

Santos - Atlante
After an irregular and inconsistent campaign caused by campeonitis, Santos will aim to earn a victory that will hand them the direct qualification and allow them to defend their title.

In reality, the Guerreros have an extremely favorable match that they should take full advantage of, since they face already qualified Atlante.

The Potros assured their qualification with a midweek victory against Tecos.  Still, Atlante has the incentive to look for a victory since the overall leader position is within range.

Santos simply need a victory from this match to reserve a spot in the playoffs. 

With a draw, they need group rival Pachuca to lose or tie against Atlas.  And they can even qualify with a defeat, as long as Atlas defeats Pachuca.

Atlante leads the first group with 26 points, while Santos occupies the second spot with 21 points.

--César García covers México for Goal.com.