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McCarthy's Musings: 2010 MLS Expansion Draft Primer
Portland and Vancouver will have difficult choices to make as they stock their rosters this afternoon.
Nov 24, 2010 7:17:00 AM
By Kyle McCarthy
All eyes will turn to Portland and Vancouver today as the Timbers and the Whitecaps enter this afternoon's Expansion Draft.
Both sides will look to mine a handful of useful options and perhaps a trade chip or two from the ten players they will select in alternating fashion this afternoon. The task is harder than it appears at first glance, but if it is done right, it can pave the way to a more palatable first season in the league and provide a couple of building blocks for the future.
Existing clubs will hope the two new boys will keep away from the players they have left exposed for this draft. No club will lose more than two of its current players, and each club will add an extra player to the 11 players – plus Generation adidas and homegrown players – already shielded in the event one of its players is selected.
With the perfunctory notes out of the way, here is a deeper look at what to expect:
No MLS player allocation function involves more moving parts than the Expansion Draft: Teams have to weigh a series of complicated factors – age, contract status, desirability, salary and talent – before submitting their protected lists. Portland and Vancouver have to contemplate all of those variables while also juggling the needs of the other club involved and pondering the potential trade value of any players selected. Throw in the four-hour trade window on Monday morning and the compressed time frame directly after MLS Cup and there's a good reason why the Expansion Draft always offers up something peculiar even in the context of a particularly byzantine player acquisition structure.
Expansion teams can negotiate a player's contract up or down, but...: Expansion teams do have the ability to rework contracts, but it's rare to see an expansion team ask a player to take a pay cut. In some instances, the selected player even receives a pay bump en route to his new location. This rather under-the-radar fact is one of the many reasons why cheaper players often comprise the vast majority of the players selected in the draft.
It would take some significant powers of persuasion to explain the sense of leaving Dax McCarty unprotected: As MLS expands, it gets harder and harder to locate and retain talented American players. McCarty, 23, certainly fits into the category after he played a key role in FCD's run to MLS Cup as a member of FCD's vaunted central midfield trio. Sure, there are reasons to expose McCarty – he has a relatively high salary number ($145,000 base compensation), he and FCD coach Schellas Hyndman haven't always seen eye-to-eye and the cheaper Eric Alexander filled in admirably while McCarty missed some time this season – but why take the risk of losing him? Maybe there's a side deal in place to keep McCarty in Dallas (or use him to keep others) or maybe there wasn't much interest in him on the trade market, but exposing McCarty looks like a poor use of resources.
Speaking of FCD, are the Hoops at risk of reprising the Jason Kreis affair?: When Real Salt Lake submitted its protected list prior to the expansion draft to stock Toronto FC back in 2006, club officials – including then-coach and current FCD assistant John Ellinger – left franchise lynchpin and future head coach Jason Kreis exposed. The theory then, as it is now with FCD's decision to make current club captain Daniel Hernandez available in this draft, was that TFC wouldn't take the veteran striker because of his high price tag for fear of being stuck with an expensive player who wasn't particularly interested in playing elsewhere. It cost RSL a decent chunk of allocation money to reacquire Kreis after TFC general manager Mo Johnston selected him in the draft. A similar situation could unfold here with Hernandez dead set on remaining in Dallas and FCD desperately in need of his leadership.
In this particular instance, the whole situation could come down to a simple cost-benefit analysis, assuming McCarty is indeed selected. The smart money is probably to pull back Eric Avila from the pool – low salary, high upside players are always popular – but FCD would run the risk of being held up for a tariff – perhaps some draft picks or some loose allocation change – if one of the two expansion clubs picks Hernandez. The big question: how much is Avila worth to FCD?
Designated Players or designated watchers?: Several DPs found their way into the draft, but most of those highly touted players should pass right through without eliciting much in the way of interest. Two DPs perhaps worth a look: New York's Juan Pablo Angel (since most observes believe he prefers to stay on the East Coast, this would be an attempt to grab some trade bait) and Seattle's Blaise Nkufo (his family's convenient location in British Columbia would make him a nice fit in Vancouver at a modest DP price).
Keep an eye on the goalkeeping situation: Clubs were all over the map with regards to protecting goalkeepers ahead of the draft. Some teams banked on the presumption that Portland (Steve Cronin) and Vancouver (Jay Nolly) aren't in desperate need of goalkeeping help, while other sides opted to protect a goalkeeper or two. It will be interesting to see whether the two expansion teams take the plunge to select a keeper or stay away to pursue outfield options.
Monitor the old clubs: Portland head coach John Spencer left his job as an assistant coach in Houston to take the Timbers job, while Vancouver director of soccer operations Tom Soehn spent three years as coach in D.C. Will either of the two men dip back into a familiar pool of players to pluck someone for his new employer?
Watch out for those guarantees: Flexibility is key for expansion sides, so expect both clubs to note whether a player meets the criteria for a guaranteed deal – a player must be over the age of 24 and possess three years of MLS service to merit a full-season guarantee under the Collective Bargaining Agreement – in 2011.
Ten players who should be on both draft boards:
1. Dax McCarty, M, FC Dallas – Portland should take him and not think twice. It's about as close to a no-brainer as you'll find in these drafts given his age, his ability and his experience.
2. Collen Warner, M, Real Salt Lake – Showed a bit of something when he took the field for RSL and more than a few people noticed. He's also a former University of Portland star, for what it's worth. One cautionary point: RSL is usually on the money with its personnel decisions, and the Claret-and-Cobalt chose to protect two fullbacks instead of finding a spot for Warner on its protected list.
3. Brad Knighton, GK, Philadelphia – A better option between the sticks than either Cronin or Nolly. After his performances in Philadelphia, he probably deserves an unfettered shot at a number one shirt somewhere in the league.
4. Anthony Wallace, D, Colorado – The former FCD left back didn't enjoy a particularly great MLS Cup and isn't the finished article, but it's tough to find a young and promising left back for $57,500 (base) these days.
5. Tim Ward, D, San Jose – Ward has bounced around the league during his career, but he's a young (23) and cheap ($55,000 base) player who provides the versatility expansion teams crave because he can slot in at either fullback spot.
6. Sanna Nyassi, M, Seattle – Much like his twin brother in New England, Sanna frustrates because he possesses the speed and the talent to succeed, but he only shows it in flashes. Taking him with the hope that he'll develop into a consistent contributor still makes sense, however.
7. Eric Brunner, D, Columbus – Brunner fell behind Andy Iro in the pecking order in Columbus this season, but he makes the minimum ($40,000 base) and he could reasonably start 25 games in central defense for an expansion side. One bonus: he's a value pick from a team that doesn't have much else to offer to the draft.
8. John Thorrington, M, Chicago – Injuries are Thorrington's real bugaboo, but the Fire midfielder is among the top midfielders in the league when healthy. Considering the ample amount of salary budget room expansion clubs usually possess, Thorrington might be a $177,000 gamble worth taking.
9. Chad Barrett, F, Toronto FC – Look, it's easy to look at Barrett's millstone of a deal ($205,000 base) and pass on him without a second thought. But Barrett does score goals (admittedly, he subscribes to the Andy Cole school of finishing) and he does work his socks off for his team in multiple spots on the field. For an expansion team, he's not a bad option to have around for a season or two to provide a foundation up front.
10. Chris Schuler, D, Real Salt Lake – Decent defenders are hard to find in this league, and Schuler has the tools necessary to blossom into a starting-caliber center back at an economical price. One potential problem: RSL could protect Schuler instead of a higher-profile and higher-salaried veteran if Warner goes ahead of him.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSsoccer.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.
Both sides will look to mine a handful of useful options and perhaps a trade chip or two from the ten players they will select in alternating fashion this afternoon. The task is harder than it appears at first glance, but if it is done right, it can pave the way to a more palatable first season in the league and provide a couple of building blocks for the future.
Existing clubs will hope the two new boys will keep away from the players they have left exposed for this draft. No club will lose more than two of its current players, and each club will add an extra player to the 11 players – plus Generation adidas and homegrown players – already shielded in the event one of its players is selected.
With the perfunctory notes out of the way, here is a deeper look at what to expect:
No MLS player allocation function involves more moving parts than the Expansion Draft: Teams have to weigh a series of complicated factors – age, contract status, desirability, salary and talent – before submitting their protected lists. Portland and Vancouver have to contemplate all of those variables while also juggling the needs of the other club involved and pondering the potential trade value of any players selected. Throw in the four-hour trade window on Monday morning and the compressed time frame directly after MLS Cup and there's a good reason why the Expansion Draft always offers up something peculiar even in the context of a particularly byzantine player acquisition structure.
Expansion teams can negotiate a player's contract up or down, but...: Expansion teams do have the ability to rework contracts, but it's rare to see an expansion team ask a player to take a pay cut. In some instances, the selected player even receives a pay bump en route to his new location. This rather under-the-radar fact is one of the many reasons why cheaper players often comprise the vast majority of the players selected in the draft.
It would take some significant powers of persuasion to explain the sense of leaving Dax McCarty unprotected: As MLS expands, it gets harder and harder to locate and retain talented American players. McCarty, 23, certainly fits into the category after he played a key role in FCD's run to MLS Cup as a member of FCD's vaunted central midfield trio. Sure, there are reasons to expose McCarty – he has a relatively high salary number ($145,000 base compensation), he and FCD coach Schellas Hyndman haven't always seen eye-to-eye and the cheaper Eric Alexander filled in admirably while McCarty missed some time this season – but why take the risk of losing him? Maybe there's a side deal in place to keep McCarty in Dallas (or use him to keep others) or maybe there wasn't much interest in him on the trade market, but exposing McCarty looks like a poor use of resources.
Speaking of FCD, are the Hoops at risk of reprising the Jason Kreis affair?: When Real Salt Lake submitted its protected list prior to the expansion draft to stock Toronto FC back in 2006, club officials – including then-coach and current FCD assistant John Ellinger – left franchise lynchpin and future head coach Jason Kreis exposed. The theory then, as it is now with FCD's decision to make current club captain Daniel Hernandez available in this draft, was that TFC wouldn't take the veteran striker because of his high price tag for fear of being stuck with an expensive player who wasn't particularly interested in playing elsewhere. It cost RSL a decent chunk of allocation money to reacquire Kreis after TFC general manager Mo Johnston selected him in the draft. A similar situation could unfold here with Hernandez dead set on remaining in Dallas and FCD desperately in need of his leadership.
In this particular instance, the whole situation could come down to a simple cost-benefit analysis, assuming McCarty is indeed selected. The smart money is probably to pull back Eric Avila from the pool – low salary, high upside players are always popular – but FCD would run the risk of being held up for a tariff – perhaps some draft picks or some loose allocation change – if one of the two expansion clubs picks Hernandez. The big question: how much is Avila worth to FCD?
Designated Players or designated watchers?: Several DPs found their way into the draft, but most of those highly touted players should pass right through without eliciting much in the way of interest. Two DPs perhaps worth a look: New York's Juan Pablo Angel (since most observes believe he prefers to stay on the East Coast, this would be an attempt to grab some trade bait) and Seattle's Blaise Nkufo (his family's convenient location in British Columbia would make him a nice fit in Vancouver at a modest DP price).
Keep an eye on the goalkeeping situation: Clubs were all over the map with regards to protecting goalkeepers ahead of the draft. Some teams banked on the presumption that Portland (Steve Cronin) and Vancouver (Jay Nolly) aren't in desperate need of goalkeeping help, while other sides opted to protect a goalkeeper or two. It will be interesting to see whether the two expansion teams take the plunge to select a keeper or stay away to pursue outfield options.
Monitor the old clubs: Portland head coach John Spencer left his job as an assistant coach in Houston to take the Timbers job, while Vancouver director of soccer operations Tom Soehn spent three years as coach in D.C. Will either of the two men dip back into a familiar pool of players to pluck someone for his new employer?
Watch out for those guarantees: Flexibility is key for expansion sides, so expect both clubs to note whether a player meets the criteria for a guaranteed deal – a player must be over the age of 24 and possess three years of MLS service to merit a full-season guarantee under the Collective Bargaining Agreement – in 2011.
Ten players who should be on both draft boards:
1. Dax McCarty, M, FC Dallas – Portland should take him and not think twice. It's about as close to a no-brainer as you'll find in these drafts given his age, his ability and his experience.
2. Collen Warner, M, Real Salt Lake – Showed a bit of something when he took the field for RSL and more than a few people noticed. He's also a former University of Portland star, for what it's worth. One cautionary point: RSL is usually on the money with its personnel decisions, and the Claret-and-Cobalt chose to protect two fullbacks instead of finding a spot for Warner on its protected list.
3. Brad Knighton, GK, Philadelphia – A better option between the sticks than either Cronin or Nolly. After his performances in Philadelphia, he probably deserves an unfettered shot at a number one shirt somewhere in the league.
4. Anthony Wallace, D, Colorado – The former FCD left back didn't enjoy a particularly great MLS Cup and isn't the finished article, but it's tough to find a young and promising left back for $57,500 (base) these days.
5. Tim Ward, D, San Jose – Ward has bounced around the league during his career, but he's a young (23) and cheap ($55,000 base) player who provides the versatility expansion teams crave because he can slot in at either fullback spot.
6. Sanna Nyassi, M, Seattle – Much like his twin brother in New England, Sanna frustrates because he possesses the speed and the talent to succeed, but he only shows it in flashes. Taking him with the hope that he'll develop into a consistent contributor still makes sense, however.
7. Eric Brunner, D, Columbus – Brunner fell behind Andy Iro in the pecking order in Columbus this season, but he makes the minimum ($40,000 base) and he could reasonably start 25 games in central defense for an expansion side. One bonus: he's a value pick from a team that doesn't have much else to offer to the draft.
8. John Thorrington, M, Chicago – Injuries are Thorrington's real bugaboo, but the Fire midfielder is among the top midfielders in the league when healthy. Considering the ample amount of salary budget room expansion clubs usually possess, Thorrington might be a $177,000 gamble worth taking.
9. Chad Barrett, F, Toronto FC – Look, it's easy to look at Barrett's millstone of a deal ($205,000 base) and pass on him without a second thought. But Barrett does score goals (admittedly, he subscribes to the Andy Cole school of finishing) and he does work his socks off for his team in multiple spots on the field. For an expansion team, he's not a bad option to have around for a season or two to provide a foundation up front.
10. Chris Schuler, D, Real Salt Lake – Decent defenders are hard to find in this league, and Schuler has the tools necessary to blossom into a starting-caliber center back at an economical price. One potential problem: RSL could protect Schuler instead of a higher-profile and higher-salaried veteran if Warner goes ahead of him.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSsoccer.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.
For more on Major League Soccer, visit Goal.com's MLS page.
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