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McCarthy's Musings: MLS Conference Semifinal Preview
New York and Real Salt Lake among conference semifinal favorites.
Oct 28, 2010 3:41:00 AM
By Kyle McCarthy
When the MLS postseason starts, one maxim serves as a guiding principle.
Expect the unexpected.
The well-worn phrase may appear a bit trite on the surface, but it pops up time and again as the eight chosen teams battle for the right to lift MLS Cup every year.
Apparent anomalies occur with shocking regularity in the postseason. Those uprisings – unheralded Real Salt Lake last season and unfancied New York the season before last serve as two recent examples – tear apart the established regular season order and throw other sides to the forefront of the title chase.
While those upsets are part and parcel of cup tournaments around the world, they also tend to make predicting how the ties will unfold somewhat difficult. All of the data and experiences accumulated over 30 games can be rendered somewhat immaterial if one or two unknown factors shift during the second season.
The uncertainty turns the postseason into an enthralling affair, but it makes predicting its outcome difficult. With all of that said, it's time to dive into the conference semifinal series in more detail.
Eastern Conference
New York (E1) v. San Jose (E4)
Schedule: Game 1 in San Jose – Saturday, 10:00p.m., Telefutura; Game 2 in Harrison, N.J. – Nov. 4, 8:00p.m., ESPN2
Previous meetings: New York 0 – San Jose 4 (May 8); San Jose 0 – New York 2 (August 28)
Lay of the land: Most of the buzz surrounds two influential strikers: New York's Thierry Henry and San Jose's Chris Wondolowski. Henry is slated to miss at least the first leg with a hamstring injury, while the versatile Wondolowski earned a MVP nomination after securing the Golden Boot with 18 goals and tallying the Earthquakes' last ten goals of the season.
Chalk talk: Watch New York manager Hans Backe. San Jose boss Frank Yallop prefers a straight-line 4-4-2, but Backe has maneuvered and tinkered depending on his personnel and, at times, his opposition. With Henry likely to miss the first leg, Backe can look at a clean tactical slate and offer up any number of choices – mostly surrounding where to place Mehdi Ballouchy – to spring a surprise or two in the first leg to constrain Wondolowski's movements. Backe likes his 4-4-2 and could go like-for-like, but some flavor of a 4-5-1 isn't out of the question with Juan Pablo Angel to lead the line.
Under the radar: The most important midfield players for both teams happen to patrol the same territory. New York's Dane Richards and San Jose's Bobby Convey prefer to operate on the front foot down the right and left flanks, respectively, but they play different roles. Convey makes his mark by keeping the ball moving through midfield and serving dangerous crosses into the penalty area, while Richards unsettles opposing defenses with his pace on the counter. The contrast between the two players may be stark, but the objective is essentially the same: if either Convey or Richards can impose his will on the other by pinning him back defensively, his team will benefit considerably.
X-factor: Rafa Marquez is by far the most important player on the field for either side because everything New York wants to do flows through him. While Marquez's defensive duties as a shield in front of the back four take precedence, he also plays a critical role in starting the attack and springing the counter. Two solid performances from Marquez will almost certainly see the Red Bulls advance to the Eastern Conference final unless something unforeseen occurs.
Final verdict: New York closes the Wondo show.
Columbus (E2) v. Colorado (E3)
Schedule: Game 1 in Commerce City, Colo. – tonight, 9:00p.m., ESPN2; Game 2 in Columbus – Nov. 6, 4:00p.m., Telefutura
Previous meetings: Columbus 0 – Colorado 1 (June 5); Colorado 1 – Columbus 3 (August 21)
Lay of the land: Colorado enters this series as the favorite to upset the recently deposed Supporters' Shield holders. The backing stems from the Crew's underwhelming run of one win from its last seven matches to wrap up 2010. Throw in a raft of injuries – including the already ruled out William Hesmer (shoulder) and the suspect Emilio Renteria (knee) – and most of the cognoscenti wonders whether the battered Crew can survive through another two legs.
Chalk talk: Don't expect much in the way of variation. Colorado coach Gary Smith prefers a classic 4-4-2 with deep-lying central midfielders and traditional wingers getting up and down the flanks. Columbus boss Robert Warzycha recently added a bit of spice to his 4-4-1-1 approach by sliding Eddie Gaven into a central midfield role alongside Brian Carroll. Gaven should provide a bit more attacking support to playmaker Guillermo Barros Schelotto, but he and Carroll will have their hands full grappling with Jeff Larentowicz and Pablo Mastroeni in the Rapids' engine room.
Under the radar: The scheduling gurus didn't do the Crew any favors. Columbus defeated Joe Public, 4-1, last Thursday in Macoya, Trinidad and subsequently returned to Ohio to dispatch Philadelphia 3-1 on Sunday. After three days of training and recovery work, the Crew hopped a plane to Denver on Wednesday in an attempt to thwart the impact of the thin air in time for tonight's first leg. Warzycha's conservative approach at Rio Tinto Stadium – another altitude-affected venue – killed the Crew in the first leg of last year's Eastern Conference semifinal defeat, but the Crew boss must find some way set out his charges to ensure they will still have their legs in the final quarter of an hour.
X-factor: Two of Colorado's primary strengths – Omar Cummings' ability to ravage defenses when he floats out to the right flank to find space and the Larentowicz-Mastroeni duo in central midfield – dovetail nicely with inherent weaknesses in Columbus' starting XI. In order to compete, the Crew will need solid performances from Shaun Francis at left back – as well as Andy Iro and Chad Marshall in the middle as they tussle with Conor Casey – and Carroll and Gaven in central midfield.
Final verdict: Colorado pulls off the upset.
Western Conference
Los Angeles (W1) v. Seattle (W4)
Schedule: Game 1 in Seattle – Sunday, 8:00p.m., ESPN2; Game 2 in Los Angeles – Nov. 7, 9:00p.m., ESPN
Previous meetings: Los Angeles 4 – Seattle 0 (May 8); Seattle 1 – Los Angeles 3 (July 4)
Lay of the land: No conference semifinal series catches the eye like this one. Los Angeles squandered most of its ample lead atop the Western Conference during an indifferent second half, but the Galaxy recovered enough to clinch the Supporters' Shield on the last day of the season. Seattle established itself as a quintessential Ewing Theory candidate by shipping Freddie Ljungberg to Chicago on July 30 and promptly tearing through MLS with a 8-2-2 mark to conclude the season.
Chalk talk: Both sides will field a 4-4-2 from the start, but Los Angeles coach Bruce Arena possesses plenty of pieces he can move around to change things up in midfield. A central midfield combination with David Beckham playing in front of Juninho probably works best to keep the former England captain away from defensive responsibilities in the wide areas, but Dema Kovalenko could feature somewhere to add a bit of bite as well. Arena also has to decide where to field Landon Donovan – up front makes more sense than wide left for similar reasons to Beckham's possible deployment in the middle – as he plots the Galaxy attack.
Under the radar: Los Angeles started its campaign by keeping clean sheets in nine of its first eleven matches. No club could sustain that sort of defensive record for an entire campaign, but the Galaxy pitched just one shutout in its final ten games. Gregg Berhalter's mystery neck/virus ailment unsettled the back four for much of that stretch and it remains to be seen what, if any, role he can play against Sounders FC. Berhalter is in many ways the most important defender for the Galaxy because he adds a veteran presence and keeps everyone in line, but is he the right choice here after playing just 73 minutes – in a 3-1 defeat to Colorado, mind you – since August 14?
X-factor: Seattle's ample pace in the wide areas could prove decisive against a Galaxy side with a startling lack of speed in midfield, but this finely balanced tie will likely turn based on the performances of Beckham and Donovan. Both players must turn up in spades to control the tempo of the match – slower is better for the Galaxy except when the counterattack can catch Seattle out – and provide the one or two telling moments required to expose a so-so Seattle back four and guide Los Angeles through this perilous opening-round affair.
Final verdict: Los Angeles by a whisker.
Real Salt Lake (W2) v. FC Dallas (W3)
Schedule: Game 1 in Frisco, Texas – Saturday, 5:00p.m., Fox Soccer Channel; Game 2 in Sandy, Utah – Nov. 6, 10:00p.m., Fox Soccer Channel
Previous meetings: Real Salt Lake 0 – FC Dallas 2 (July 17); FC Dallas 0 – Real Salt Lake 2 (October 16)
Lay of the land: Neither team deserved this cruel first-round fate, but one of the top five teams in MLS will exit at the opening hurdle. Real Salt Lake narrowly missed out on the Supporters' Shield, but the Claret-and-Cobalt can point to its overall form (one loss in its past 25 league matches) to suggest it should be favored in the tie. FC Dallas followed up a 19-match unbeaten run with two losses to end the season as injuries ravaged a generally steady starting XI.
Chalk talk: The formations aren't in question here – RSL boss Jason Kreis employs a much-reviewed 4-4-2 with a narrow diamond in midfield, while FCD coach Schellas Hyndman selects a 4-1-4-1 – but FCD faces some personnel decisions as it weighs its recent health concerns. Kevin Hartman (knee) and Daniel Hernandez (hamstring) will almost certainly feature if they can walk, but can they cope with the rigors of a playoff game? One other minor note to watch with RSL: Kreis can call on three forwards – Alvaro Saborio plus either Fabian Espindola and Robbie Findley from the start – and he isn't afraid to make a switch after 60 minutes or so if he needs a different look up front.
Under the radar: Both teams rely heavily on their fullbacks. FCD asks Jair Benitez (left) and Heath Pearce (right) to supplement the attack with regularity and they push higher than any fullback duo in the league. RSL needs something a bit different from Robbie Russell (right) and Chris Wingert (left) to compensate from the narrow diamond in midfield. Although the Claret-and-Cobalt's outside midfielders – particularly the industrious Will Johnson on the left – make diagonal defensive runs to provide cover, Russell and Wingert assume most of the responsibility for their defensive areas and also press into the ample space allotted to them in the wide areas to bolster the attack. The burdens placed upon the four fullbacks suggest their performances could play a crucial role in the outcome of the series.
X-factor: This highly anticipated matchup offers so many intriguing plotlines, but the tug-of-war between David Ferreira and Javier Morales could prove most decisive. The two schemers pull all of the strings through midfield and serve as the touchstones in the final third. Both players are capable of winning this series by themselves, but only one might have to bear that burden. If the two playmakers wash out in terms of impact, the edge falls to the reigning champions.
Final verdict: Real Salt Lake survives to continue its title defense.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSsoccer.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.
When the MLS postseason starts, one maxim serves as a guiding principle.
Expect the unexpected.
The well-worn phrase may appear a bit trite on the surface, but it pops up time and again as the eight chosen teams battle for the right to lift MLS Cup every year.
Apparent anomalies occur with shocking regularity in the postseason. Those uprisings – unheralded Real Salt Lake last season and unfancied New York the season before last serve as two recent examples – tear apart the established regular season order and throw other sides to the forefront of the title chase.
While those upsets are part and parcel of cup tournaments around the world, they also tend to make predicting how the ties will unfold somewhat difficult. All of the data and experiences accumulated over 30 games can be rendered somewhat immaterial if one or two unknown factors shift during the second season.
The uncertainty turns the postseason into an enthralling affair, but it makes predicting its outcome difficult. With all of that said, it's time to dive into the conference semifinal series in more detail.
Eastern Conference
New York (E1) v. San Jose (E4)
Schedule: Game 1 in San Jose – Saturday, 10:00p.m., Telefutura; Game 2 in Harrison, N.J. – Nov. 4, 8:00p.m., ESPN2
Previous meetings: New York 0 – San Jose 4 (May 8); San Jose 0 – New York 2 (August 28)
Lay of the land: Most of the buzz surrounds two influential strikers: New York's Thierry Henry and San Jose's Chris Wondolowski. Henry is slated to miss at least the first leg with a hamstring injury, while the versatile Wondolowski earned a MVP nomination after securing the Golden Boot with 18 goals and tallying the Earthquakes' last ten goals of the season.
Chalk talk: Watch New York manager Hans Backe. San Jose boss Frank Yallop prefers a straight-line 4-4-2, but Backe has maneuvered and tinkered depending on his personnel and, at times, his opposition. With Henry likely to miss the first leg, Backe can look at a clean tactical slate and offer up any number of choices – mostly surrounding where to place Mehdi Ballouchy – to spring a surprise or two in the first leg to constrain Wondolowski's movements. Backe likes his 4-4-2 and could go like-for-like, but some flavor of a 4-5-1 isn't out of the question with Juan Pablo Angel to lead the line.
Under the radar: The most important midfield players for both teams happen to patrol the same territory. New York's Dane Richards and San Jose's Bobby Convey prefer to operate on the front foot down the right and left flanks, respectively, but they play different roles. Convey makes his mark by keeping the ball moving through midfield and serving dangerous crosses into the penalty area, while Richards unsettles opposing defenses with his pace on the counter. The contrast between the two players may be stark, but the objective is essentially the same: if either Convey or Richards can impose his will on the other by pinning him back defensively, his team will benefit considerably.
X-factor: Rafa Marquez is by far the most important player on the field for either side because everything New York wants to do flows through him. While Marquez's defensive duties as a shield in front of the back four take precedence, he also plays a critical role in starting the attack and springing the counter. Two solid performances from Marquez will almost certainly see the Red Bulls advance to the Eastern Conference final unless something unforeseen occurs.
Final verdict: New York closes the Wondo show.
Columbus (E2) v. Colorado (E3)
Schedule: Game 1 in Commerce City, Colo. – tonight, 9:00p.m., ESPN2; Game 2 in Columbus – Nov. 6, 4:00p.m., Telefutura
Previous meetings: Columbus 0 – Colorado 1 (June 5); Colorado 1 – Columbus 3 (August 21)
Lay of the land: Colorado enters this series as the favorite to upset the recently deposed Supporters' Shield holders. The backing stems from the Crew's underwhelming run of one win from its last seven matches to wrap up 2010. Throw in a raft of injuries – including the already ruled out William Hesmer (shoulder) and the suspect Emilio Renteria (knee) – and most of the cognoscenti wonders whether the battered Crew can survive through another two legs.
Chalk talk: Don't expect much in the way of variation. Colorado coach Gary Smith prefers a classic 4-4-2 with deep-lying central midfielders and traditional wingers getting up and down the flanks. Columbus boss Robert Warzycha recently added a bit of spice to his 4-4-1-1 approach by sliding Eddie Gaven into a central midfield role alongside Brian Carroll. Gaven should provide a bit more attacking support to playmaker Guillermo Barros Schelotto, but he and Carroll will have their hands full grappling with Jeff Larentowicz and Pablo Mastroeni in the Rapids' engine room.
Under the radar: The scheduling gurus didn't do the Crew any favors. Columbus defeated Joe Public, 4-1, last Thursday in Macoya, Trinidad and subsequently returned to Ohio to dispatch Philadelphia 3-1 on Sunday. After three days of training and recovery work, the Crew hopped a plane to Denver on Wednesday in an attempt to thwart the impact of the thin air in time for tonight's first leg. Warzycha's conservative approach at Rio Tinto Stadium – another altitude-affected venue – killed the Crew in the first leg of last year's Eastern Conference semifinal defeat, but the Crew boss must find some way set out his charges to ensure they will still have their legs in the final quarter of an hour.
X-factor: Two of Colorado's primary strengths – Omar Cummings' ability to ravage defenses when he floats out to the right flank to find space and the Larentowicz-Mastroeni duo in central midfield – dovetail nicely with inherent weaknesses in Columbus' starting XI. In order to compete, the Crew will need solid performances from Shaun Francis at left back – as well as Andy Iro and Chad Marshall in the middle as they tussle with Conor Casey – and Carroll and Gaven in central midfield.
Final verdict: Colorado pulls off the upset.
Western Conference
Los Angeles (W1) v. Seattle (W4)
Schedule: Game 1 in Seattle – Sunday, 8:00p.m., ESPN2; Game 2 in Los Angeles – Nov. 7, 9:00p.m., ESPN
Previous meetings: Los Angeles 4 – Seattle 0 (May 8); Seattle 1 – Los Angeles 3 (July 4)
Lay of the land: No conference semifinal series catches the eye like this one. Los Angeles squandered most of its ample lead atop the Western Conference during an indifferent second half, but the Galaxy recovered enough to clinch the Supporters' Shield on the last day of the season. Seattle established itself as a quintessential Ewing Theory candidate by shipping Freddie Ljungberg to Chicago on July 30 and promptly tearing through MLS with a 8-2-2 mark to conclude the season.
Chalk talk: Both sides will field a 4-4-2 from the start, but Los Angeles coach Bruce Arena possesses plenty of pieces he can move around to change things up in midfield. A central midfield combination with David Beckham playing in front of Juninho probably works best to keep the former England captain away from defensive responsibilities in the wide areas, but Dema Kovalenko could feature somewhere to add a bit of bite as well. Arena also has to decide where to field Landon Donovan – up front makes more sense than wide left for similar reasons to Beckham's possible deployment in the middle – as he plots the Galaxy attack.
Under the radar: Los Angeles started its campaign by keeping clean sheets in nine of its first eleven matches. No club could sustain that sort of defensive record for an entire campaign, but the Galaxy pitched just one shutout in its final ten games. Gregg Berhalter's mystery neck/virus ailment unsettled the back four for much of that stretch and it remains to be seen what, if any, role he can play against Sounders FC. Berhalter is in many ways the most important defender for the Galaxy because he adds a veteran presence and keeps everyone in line, but is he the right choice here after playing just 73 minutes – in a 3-1 defeat to Colorado, mind you – since August 14?
X-factor: Seattle's ample pace in the wide areas could prove decisive against a Galaxy side with a startling lack of speed in midfield, but this finely balanced tie will likely turn based on the performances of Beckham and Donovan. Both players must turn up in spades to control the tempo of the match – slower is better for the Galaxy except when the counterattack can catch Seattle out – and provide the one or two telling moments required to expose a so-so Seattle back four and guide Los Angeles through this perilous opening-round affair.
Final verdict: Los Angeles by a whisker.
Real Salt Lake (W2) v. FC Dallas (W3)
Schedule: Game 1 in Frisco, Texas – Saturday, 5:00p.m., Fox Soccer Channel; Game 2 in Sandy, Utah – Nov. 6, 10:00p.m., Fox Soccer Channel
Previous meetings: Real Salt Lake 0 – FC Dallas 2 (July 17); FC Dallas 0 – Real Salt Lake 2 (October 16)
Lay of the land: Neither team deserved this cruel first-round fate, but one of the top five teams in MLS will exit at the opening hurdle. Real Salt Lake narrowly missed out on the Supporters' Shield, but the Claret-and-Cobalt can point to its overall form (one loss in its past 25 league matches) to suggest it should be favored in the tie. FC Dallas followed up a 19-match unbeaten run with two losses to end the season as injuries ravaged a generally steady starting XI.
Chalk talk: The formations aren't in question here – RSL boss Jason Kreis employs a much-reviewed 4-4-2 with a narrow diamond in midfield, while FCD coach Schellas Hyndman selects a 4-1-4-1 – but FCD faces some personnel decisions as it weighs its recent health concerns. Kevin Hartman (knee) and Daniel Hernandez (hamstring) will almost certainly feature if they can walk, but can they cope with the rigors of a playoff game? One other minor note to watch with RSL: Kreis can call on three forwards – Alvaro Saborio plus either Fabian Espindola and Robbie Findley from the start – and he isn't afraid to make a switch after 60 minutes or so if he needs a different look up front.
Under the radar: Both teams rely heavily on their fullbacks. FCD asks Jair Benitez (left) and Heath Pearce (right) to supplement the attack with regularity and they push higher than any fullback duo in the league. RSL needs something a bit different from Robbie Russell (right) and Chris Wingert (left) to compensate from the narrow diamond in midfield. Although the Claret-and-Cobalt's outside midfielders – particularly the industrious Will Johnson on the left – make diagonal defensive runs to provide cover, Russell and Wingert assume most of the responsibility for their defensive areas and also press into the ample space allotted to them in the wide areas to bolster the attack. The burdens placed upon the four fullbacks suggest their performances could play a crucial role in the outcome of the series.
X-factor: This highly anticipated matchup offers so many intriguing plotlines, but the tug-of-war between David Ferreira and Javier Morales could prove most decisive. The two schemers pull all of the strings through midfield and serve as the touchstones in the final third. Both players are capable of winning this series by themselves, but only one might have to bear that burden. If the two playmakers wash out in terms of impact, the edge falls to the reigning champions.
Final verdict: Real Salt Lake survives to continue its title defense.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSsoccer.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.
For more on Major League Soccer, visit Goal.com's MLS page.
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