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Friday MLS Forecast: Week 15
The Forecast ponders the potential MLS theme couched in LeBron James' move to Miami before revealing its Week 15 picks
Jul 9, 2010 2:50:00 AM
By Kyle McCarthy
As LeBron James plunged a crass dagger into the hearts of northeast Ohioans by announcing his decision to sign with Miami in a self-indulgent television special on Thursday night, he also unwittingly underlined a point MLS executives have preached for years.
Free agency – with its positives and its negatives for all parties involved – can have a disproportionate impact on how players are distributed.
Take James' decision to depart Cleveland to join Miami as an illustrative – but by no means directly correlative – example.
(Note: There are too many differences to make a direct comparison between the freedom of movement principles in MLS and the NBA. The possibility of an outside move to Europe from MLS versus the primarily self-contained NBA looms as one of the most significant distinctions, but other variations also exist.)
Location played a significant role in determining the final destination of Chris Bosh, James and Dwyane Wade. Bosh could have played with James in Cleveland as part of a sign-and-trade deal with Toronto and made significantly more money, but he turned up his nose at spending the next six years of his life on Lake Erie instead of on South Beach. Wade liked Miami and its superior contract offer enough to turn down a chance to return to his hometown of Chicago and spend more time with his children. James eventually assessed the situation, recognized his dream trio would only unite in Miami and turned down a bunch of extra coin at home to join his buddies in Florida.
The setting wasn't, however, the only decisive factor. Miami may have benefited from the sun and the sand as it tried to build its team, but it sealed the deal with its resources. No other team possessed the necessary cap room to accommodate all three players, no other team relied on Pat Riley to weave his magic in the back rooms, no other team leaned on the type of quiet and unwavering support owner Mickey Arison offers to his Heat.
It isn't difficult to see how similar advantages in certain markets might impact MLS in a more liberal marketplace and threaten its single-entity principles.
Some clubs – Los Angeles with all of those hometown ties and all of that sun, New York with its proximity to the city that never sleeps and Seattle with its penchant to spend and its significant fan base – would thrive in an open market, while other clubs would just wait and hope a lavish offer or two might persuade a decent MLS player to pick an off-Broadway location for his next contract.
Within the single-entity structure, the imbalance would cause internal carnage and competition far in excess of the level tolerated by MLS investors. While driving up the price internally isn't particularly acceptable from a management point of view, allowing the marketplace to distinguish between a group of presumably equal clubs – though, as most observers would suggest, MLS teams aren't always treated as such under the current model – registers as an even greater affront. More than a few people would say altering the current model in favor of more internal strife would constitute much needed progress, but those parties generally don't write the checks.
Fortunately for James, he doesn't have to worry about the wider ramifications of player movement on single-entity structures or the occasionally draconian contractual restrictions imposed on the garden variety MLS player. He just has to collect paychecks, play ball and win championships. Guess life is simpler on South Beach after all.
Last week: 5/7 (71%)
For the season: 42/88 (48%)
Saturday
Colorado @ Toronto FC – 12:00p.m. (CBC) – Goal.com Preview
The draw specialists meet in Toronto and, well, you know what follows next.
Prediction: Draw.
San Jose @ Philadelphia – 6:00p.m. (Fox Soccer Channel) – Goal.com Preview
Will the magic of PPL Park continue after the victory against Seattle or will the Earthquakes find some way to stunt the lively home crowd?
Prediction: Philadelphia win.
Los Angeles @ New England – 7:30p.m. – Goal.com Preview
This result shouldn't hinge on whether Landon Donovan makes the trip to the East Coast. And, quite frankly, he shouldn't make the journey even if it did.
Prediction: Los Angeles win.
D.C. United @ New York – 7:30p.m. – Goal.com Preview
Want to bet against Juan Pablo Angel finding his way onto the score sheet in this one? I didn't think so.
Prediction: New York win.
Chivas USA @ Kansas City – 8:30p.m. – Goal.com Preview
The Red-and-White will soon reap the benefits of signing Giancarlo Maldonado and Paulo Nagamura, but the duo can't perk up the struggling side until the transfer window opens. Until then, it's tough to envision Chivas USA earning any points away from home.
Prediction: Kansas City win.
Columbus @ Houston – 8:30p.m. – Goal.com Preview
Can the Dynamo submit the defensive effort required to obtain a result from this match?
Prediction: Draw.
Sunday
FC Dallas @ Seattle – 10:30p.m. – Goal.com Preview
At some point, Sounders FC will have to stand up and be counted. It may not happen until Blaise N'Kufo arrives.
Prediction: FC Dallas win.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSsoccer.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.
As LeBron James plunged a crass dagger into the hearts of northeast Ohioans by announcing his decision to sign with Miami in a self-indulgent television special on Thursday night, he also unwittingly underlined a point MLS executives have preached for years.
Free agency – with its positives and its negatives for all parties involved – can have a disproportionate impact on how players are distributed.
Take James' decision to depart Cleveland to join Miami as an illustrative – but by no means directly correlative – example.
(Note: There are too many differences to make a direct comparison between the freedom of movement principles in MLS and the NBA. The possibility of an outside move to Europe from MLS versus the primarily self-contained NBA looms as one of the most significant distinctions, but other variations also exist.)
Location played a significant role in determining the final destination of Chris Bosh, James and Dwyane Wade. Bosh could have played with James in Cleveland as part of a sign-and-trade deal with Toronto and made significantly more money, but he turned up his nose at spending the next six years of his life on Lake Erie instead of on South Beach. Wade liked Miami and its superior contract offer enough to turn down a chance to return to his hometown of Chicago and spend more time with his children. James eventually assessed the situation, recognized his dream trio would only unite in Miami and turned down a bunch of extra coin at home to join his buddies in Florida.
The setting wasn't, however, the only decisive factor. Miami may have benefited from the sun and the sand as it tried to build its team, but it sealed the deal with its resources. No other team possessed the necessary cap room to accommodate all three players, no other team relied on Pat Riley to weave his magic in the back rooms, no other team leaned on the type of quiet and unwavering support owner Mickey Arison offers to his Heat.
It isn't difficult to see how similar advantages in certain markets might impact MLS in a more liberal marketplace and threaten its single-entity principles.
Some clubs – Los Angeles with all of those hometown ties and all of that sun, New York with its proximity to the city that never sleeps and Seattle with its penchant to spend and its significant fan base – would thrive in an open market, while other clubs would just wait and hope a lavish offer or two might persuade a decent MLS player to pick an off-Broadway location for his next contract.
Within the single-entity structure, the imbalance would cause internal carnage and competition far in excess of the level tolerated by MLS investors. While driving up the price internally isn't particularly acceptable from a management point of view, allowing the marketplace to distinguish between a group of presumably equal clubs – though, as most observers would suggest, MLS teams aren't always treated as such under the current model – registers as an even greater affront. More than a few people would say altering the current model in favor of more internal strife would constitute much needed progress, but those parties generally don't write the checks.
Fortunately for James, he doesn't have to worry about the wider ramifications of player movement on single-entity structures or the occasionally draconian contractual restrictions imposed on the garden variety MLS player. He just has to collect paychecks, play ball and win championships. Guess life is simpler on South Beach after all.
Last week: 5/7 (71%)
For the season: 42/88 (48%)
Saturday
Colorado @ Toronto FC – 12:00p.m. (CBC) – Goal.com Preview
The draw specialists meet in Toronto and, well, you know what follows next.
Prediction: Draw.
San Jose @ Philadelphia – 6:00p.m. (Fox Soccer Channel) – Goal.com Preview
Will the magic of PPL Park continue after the victory against Seattle or will the Earthquakes find some way to stunt the lively home crowd?
Prediction: Philadelphia win.
Los Angeles @ New England – 7:30p.m. – Goal.com Preview
This result shouldn't hinge on whether Landon Donovan makes the trip to the East Coast. And, quite frankly, he shouldn't make the journey even if it did.
Prediction: Los Angeles win.
D.C. United @ New York – 7:30p.m. – Goal.com Preview
Want to bet against Juan Pablo Angel finding his way onto the score sheet in this one? I didn't think so.
Prediction: New York win.
Chivas USA @ Kansas City – 8:30p.m. – Goal.com Preview
The Red-and-White will soon reap the benefits of signing Giancarlo Maldonado and Paulo Nagamura, but the duo can't perk up the struggling side until the transfer window opens. Until then, it's tough to envision Chivas USA earning any points away from home.
Prediction: Kansas City win.
Columbus @ Houston – 8:30p.m. – Goal.com Preview
Can the Dynamo submit the defensive effort required to obtain a result from this match?
Prediction: Draw.
Sunday
FC Dallas @ Seattle – 10:30p.m. – Goal.com Preview
At some point, Sounders FC will have to stand up and be counted. It may not happen until Blaise N'Kufo arrives.
Prediction: FC Dallas win.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSsoccer.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.
For more on Major League Soccer, visit Goal.com's MLS page.
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