|
|
By The Numbers: Defining Success For The Philadelphia Union
Get a look at how expansion teams have shaken out statistically over the years.
Apr 2, 2010 6:17:00 AM
By Keith Hickey
It's not easy being the new kid, especially in MLS.
The numbers for expansion teams, especially recent ones, are daunting. Of the seven previous expansion teams, only one (the 1998 Chicago Fire which famously won the MLS Cup) managed to win half their games. Just two, that Fire team and the 2009 Seattle Sounders, ended up with a positive goal difference and more wins than losses. In more than half of all cases, expansion clubs finish without an established club below them.
This fact, that expansion teams generally aren't successful, is hardly a revelation. A new team, full of new players, with only a couple months to settle and gel, are going to be at a disadvantage when coming up against established squads.
What Philadelphia soccer fans and many MLS observers are wondering is how the Philadelphia Union will fare in its inaugural season. Will this be a successful campaign?
The answer depends on how you define success. In most major professional leagues, especially in the U.S., on-field performance would be the major, if not only, measure of success. Make the playoffs, like the Fire, Miami Fusion, and the Sounders, and you're a success. Finish in the cellar, like Toronto FC, the 2008 reincarnation of the San Jose Earthquakes, Real Salt Lake, or Chivas USA, and you're just another expansion team with a lot of room for improvement.
In soccer, though, there are other considerations to take into account. Miami may have made the playoffs in its first season, but it averaged a disappointing gate of just over 10,000 fans on average and folded after four seasons. Real Salt Lake won just five games in 2005, it's first season, let in a dismal 65 goals, and finished fifth out of six in the West, only above fellow expansion club Chivas USA. However, RSL pulled in an average of over 18,000 fans that first year, now have their own soccer-specific stadium in Rio Tinto, and have never averaged under 15,000 fans per game in a season. Salt Lake are also currently MLS Champions.
Many would consider the Union's first season to be a success if they were to perform above all the average benchmarks for expansion clubs. Although the numbers are somewhat skewed by Major League Soccer's early shootout format, the Union would have to garner just 1.07 points per game and maintain a goal difference above -13.86, while averaging a significant gate at PPL Park. Other measures also seem attainable: The offense would have to score just 1.21 times per game to match the expansion team average, while the defense would need to hold opponents to 1.66 goals against.
With the defense that Piotr Nowak has assembled in Philadelphia, led by U.S. international Danny Califf, the goals-against mark in particular seems attainable, which will go a long way towards keeping above the -13.86 goal difference and bettering the average record of 10 wins, 15.71 losses and 7.6 draws.
No matter how the Union performs on the field, though, it's the off-field metric of popularity by which soccer teams in America are ultimately judged. It will be impossible for the Union to top Seattle's average attendance record of 30,943 or even Toronto's 20,134, given the 18,500 seat capacity of PPL Park. However, all signs point to both a huge grassroots support and major corporate backing, so topping the current average of 17,713 shouldn't be such a daunting task for such a passionate sports town.
Then there's also the small fact that the Union has the youngest team in MLS and a successful coach building a team in his own image. No matter the product on the field this year, things look very good for the Union's long-term success.
Note: Where applicable, all "averaged" stats used in this article have been adjusted for the average number of games played by an expansion team in an MLS league season, currently 31.14 games.
For more on Major League Soccer, visit Goal.com's MLS page
The numbers for expansion teams, especially recent ones, are daunting. Of the seven previous expansion teams, only one (the 1998 Chicago Fire which famously won the MLS Cup) managed to win half their games. Just two, that Fire team and the 2009 Seattle Sounders, ended up with a positive goal difference and more wins than losses. In more than half of all cases, expansion clubs finish without an established club below them.
This fact, that expansion teams generally aren't successful, is hardly a revelation. A new team, full of new players, with only a couple months to settle and gel, are going to be at a disadvantage when coming up against established squads.
What Philadelphia soccer fans and many MLS observers are wondering is how the Philadelphia Union will fare in its inaugural season. Will this be a successful campaign?
The answer depends on how you define success. In most major professional leagues, especially in the U.S., on-field performance would be the major, if not only, measure of success. Make the playoffs, like the Fire, Miami Fusion, and the Sounders, and you're a success. Finish in the cellar, like Toronto FC, the 2008 reincarnation of the San Jose Earthquakes, Real Salt Lake, or Chivas USA, and you're just another expansion team with a lot of room for improvement.
In soccer, though, there are other considerations to take into account. Miami may have made the playoffs in its first season, but it averaged a disappointing gate of just over 10,000 fans on average and folded after four seasons. Real Salt Lake won just five games in 2005, it's first season, let in a dismal 65 goals, and finished fifth out of six in the West, only above fellow expansion club Chivas USA. However, RSL pulled in an average of over 18,000 fans that first year, now have their own soccer-specific stadium in Rio Tinto, and have never averaged under 15,000 fans per game in a season. Salt Lake are also currently MLS Champions.
Many would consider the Union's first season to be a success if they were to perform above all the average benchmarks for expansion clubs. Although the numbers are somewhat skewed by Major League Soccer's early shootout format, the Union would have to garner just 1.07 points per game and maintain a goal difference above -13.86, while averaging a significant gate at PPL Park. Other measures also seem attainable: The offense would have to score just 1.21 times per game to match the expansion team average, while the defense would need to hold opponents to 1.66 goals against.
With the defense that Piotr Nowak has assembled in Philadelphia, led by U.S. international Danny Califf, the goals-against mark in particular seems attainable, which will go a long way towards keeping above the -13.86 goal difference and bettering the average record of 10 wins, 15.71 losses and 7.6 draws.
No matter how the Union performs on the field, though, it's the off-field metric of popularity by which soccer teams in America are ultimately judged. It will be impossible for the Union to top Seattle's average attendance record of 30,943 or even Toronto's 20,134, given the 18,500 seat capacity of PPL Park. However, all signs point to both a huge grassroots support and major corporate backing, so topping the current average of 17,713 shouldn't be such a daunting task for such a passionate sports town.
Then there's also the small fact that the Union has the youngest team in MLS and a successful coach building a team in his own image. No matter the product on the field this year, things look very good for the Union's long-term success.
Note: Where applicable, all "averaged" stats used in this article have been adjusted for the average number of games played by an expansion team in an MLS league season, currently 31.14 games.
For more on Major League Soccer, visit Goal.com's MLS page
Inside Goal.Com
-
EURO 2012: Cristiano Ronaldo, Xavi and Van Persie named in Goal.com's dream team XI
Goal.com put together its dream team for this summer's European Championship in Poland and Ukraine
-
RIGG: Anelka struggling against the current in Shanghai
Nicolas Anelka went against the grain when he moved to Shanghai. Now he's finding that coaching and gelling tactically is like swimming against the tide.
-
ROGERS: Bradley should command a bidding war among Serie A teams
Chievo is currently shopping the American midfielder and several Italian clubs have shown interest.
-
ISOLA: Neymar-led Brazil should be considered the 2014 WC favorite
Neymar was brilliant as Brazil easily handled the United States with early World Cup preparations officially underway.
-
LATHAM: Mexico using summer friendlies to build depth
With World Cup qualifying to begin in June, Mexico is using three U.S.-hosted friendlies to build squad depth.