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Monday MLS Breakdown: First-Round Success Not A Matter Of Designation
Generation adidas players may receive much of the hype, but other first-round selections are just as successful. After spending some time perusing through the SuperDraft history books, Kyle McCarthy shares his findings.
Jan 4, 2010 3:15:37 AM
By Kyle McCarthy
Forget about the recently opened transfer window or the holiday sales at the local mall. With the college season now over and the SuperDraft approaching, MLS is focusing its energy on picking up all of the young talent it can secure to stock its clubs ahead of the 2010 campaign.
The shopping looks just about over ahead of the start of the SuperDraft Combine in Fort Lauderdale on Saturday. From all accounts, it looks like the central office has secured a few enticing options ahead of next Thursday's SuperDraft in Philadelphia.
After the addition of eight underclassmen on New Year's Day, the Generation adidas class looks set with 12 players. Highly touted Wake Forest stars Corben Bone and Ike Opara lead the list of the most recent signings, though Danny Mwanga (Oregon State) is generating top pick buzz. Five seniors will join the underclassmen and high schoolers in the draft pool with Andre Akpan (Harvard), Zach Loyd (North Carolina) and Toni Stahl (Connecticut) among the notables.
By signing seventeen players prior to the SuperDraft, MLS has listened to its teams, acquired players in which clubs have expressed interest and established the pecking order for the annual collegiate swap meet. Thirteen clubs will enter the Pennsylvania Convention Center expecting to land a first-round contributor while the three remaining clubs will attempt to trade for a first-round pick or wait for their turn in the later rounds.
The first-round results, however, do not change as drastically as one might expect depending on whether a club selects a Generation adidas player or opts for a college player, according to an analysis of recent SuperDrafts.
(A brief note on the methodology: this study surveyed MLS SuperDrafts from 2003-2007 and assessed the Generation adidas selections in all rounds and the other players selected in the first round of each of those drafts. From this point of view, it appears far too soon to draw any firm conclusions about the two most recent draft classes, so those classes were omitted.)
In each of the five years surveyed, first-round draft picks from outside the Generation adidas program were more likely than GA selections to play 50 or more games in MLS. The difference by percentage between the two groups equaled or exceeded 15 percent in three of the five years, including a 30 percent spread in two years (2005 and 2007) and a raw numerical advantage in 2007 (3/6 for non-GA, 2/10 for GA).
This pattern, however, does not account for the fact that all GA players were included in the survey regardless of where they were selected in the draft and does not display a negative inference toward the success of GA players on the whole. In all but one instance (2007 GA members), Generation adidas selections and non-GA first-round draft picks were better than a 50-50 shot to reach the 50-game milestone over the course of their MLS career. The size of the GA class – 10-13 players per year as opposed to four-to-six non-GA players – also played a factor in skewing the percentages.
The universal tendency did not carry over when the numbers assessed whether players reached the 50-game plateau with their original club. A split emerged over the course of the five-year period. In 2003 and 2004, Nike Project-40 players were twice as likely to reach 50 games with the club that drafted them. P-40 players also matched or exceeded the 50 percent mark in that category in both of those campaigns, which isn't a surprise considering those two classes were almost certainly the two strongest P-40/GA classes in league history. Non-GA players wrested control of the category between 2005-2007, but only surpassed 50 percent in 2005.
A significant disparity emerges when weighing the contributions to the U.S. men's national team. Generation adidas players are considerably more successful than their first-round brethren in earning a callup and staying in the side once invited onto the international stage.
Twenty-two Generation adidas have emerged from a 58-man pool to earn one or more caps with the U.S. national team. Nine of those players have accumulated ten or more caps, a group that includes regular starters Jozy Altidore, Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey and Ricardo Clark.
Non-GA first-round draft picks fare well when other countries are considered because a significant number of those players hail from outside of the United States, but they struggle when the process is limited to the U.S. Three non-GA first-rounders – Todd Dunivant, Ugo Ihemelu and Pat Noonan – have obtained full U.S. international honors and only Noonan has more than ten caps. The numbers are even worse across the board in recent years. In 2006 and 2007, only one non-GA first-rounder – New Zealand's Andrew Boyens – obtained even one international cap for his country.
(One caveat: five non-GA draft picks, including Boyens and Noonan, have made ten or more international appearances. That is a stellar haul considering there are only 24 players total in the pool, but it is worth noting that the four non-Americans in that group feature for smaller countries with fewer choices in their player pools.)
So what does this academic exercise tell us about the upcoming SuperDraft?
The numbers don't indicate a tangible difference between Generation adidas and non-GA players rated as first-round draft picks. Success is a coin flip either way, though GA players are more likely to have a higher ceiling and non-GA players are a slightly better bet to stick around and contribute to the cause long-term. Although the results are just about equal, the empirical data reveals a distinct preference created by external considerations. History suggests clubs will favor roster-exempt options – six or more GA players have heard their name called in the first round in every SuperDraft since 2003 – over other available players in the early stages of the draft.
Talent, as it always does, will serve the primary indicator for when a player is selected. Considering some of the names slated to feature in the SuperDraft, it appears that the decisions won't be easy regardless of the designation a particular player carries.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week forGoal.com . He also covers the New
England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSnet.com. Contact him
with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.
For more onMajor League Soccer , visit Goal.com 's MLS page.
Forget about the recently opened transfer window or the holiday sales at the local mall. With the college season now over and the SuperDraft approaching, MLS is focusing its energy on picking up all of the young talent it can secure to stock its clubs ahead of the 2010 campaign.
The shopping looks just about over ahead of the start of the SuperDraft Combine in Fort Lauderdale on Saturday. From all accounts, it looks like the central office has secured a few enticing options ahead of next Thursday's SuperDraft in Philadelphia.
After the addition of eight underclassmen on New Year's Day, the Generation adidas class looks set with 12 players. Highly touted Wake Forest stars Corben Bone and Ike Opara lead the list of the most recent signings, though Danny Mwanga (Oregon State) is generating top pick buzz. Five seniors will join the underclassmen and high schoolers in the draft pool with Andre Akpan (Harvard), Zach Loyd (North Carolina) and Toni Stahl (Connecticut) among the notables.
By signing seventeen players prior to the SuperDraft, MLS has listened to its teams, acquired players in which clubs have expressed interest and established the pecking order for the annual collegiate swap meet. Thirteen clubs will enter the Pennsylvania Convention Center expecting to land a first-round contributor while the three remaining clubs will attempt to trade for a first-round pick or wait for their turn in the later rounds.
The first-round results, however, do not change as drastically as one might expect depending on whether a club selects a Generation adidas player or opts for a college player, according to an analysis of recent SuperDrafts.
(A brief note on the methodology: this study surveyed MLS SuperDrafts from 2003-2007 and assessed the Generation adidas selections in all rounds and the other players selected in the first round of each of those drafts. From this point of view, it appears far too soon to draw any firm conclusions about the two most recent draft classes, so those classes were omitted.)
In each of the five years surveyed, first-round draft picks from outside the Generation adidas program were more likely than GA selections to play 50 or more games in MLS. The difference by percentage between the two groups equaled or exceeded 15 percent in three of the five years, including a 30 percent spread in two years (2005 and 2007) and a raw numerical advantage in 2007 (3/6 for non-GA, 2/10 for GA).
This pattern, however, does not account for the fact that all GA players were included in the survey regardless of where they were selected in the draft and does not display a negative inference toward the success of GA players on the whole. In all but one instance (2007 GA members), Generation adidas selections and non-GA first-round draft picks were better than a 50-50 shot to reach the 50-game milestone over the course of their MLS career. The size of the GA class – 10-13 players per year as opposed to four-to-six non-GA players – also played a factor in skewing the percentages.
The universal tendency did not carry over when the numbers assessed whether players reached the 50-game plateau with their original club. A split emerged over the course of the five-year period. In 2003 and 2004, Nike Project-40 players were twice as likely to reach 50 games with the club that drafted them. P-40 players also matched or exceeded the 50 percent mark in that category in both of those campaigns, which isn't a surprise considering those two classes were almost certainly the two strongest P-40/GA classes in league history. Non-GA players wrested control of the category between 2005-2007, but only surpassed 50 percent in 2005.
A significant disparity emerges when weighing the contributions to the U.S. men's national team. Generation adidas players are considerably more successful than their first-round brethren in earning a callup and staying in the side once invited onto the international stage.
Twenty-two Generation adidas have emerged from a 58-man pool to earn one or more caps with the U.S. national team. Nine of those players have accumulated ten or more caps, a group that includes regular starters Jozy Altidore, Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey and Ricardo Clark.
Non-GA first-round draft picks fare well when other countries are considered because a significant number of those players hail from outside of the United States, but they struggle when the process is limited to the U.S. Three non-GA first-rounders – Todd Dunivant, Ugo Ihemelu and Pat Noonan – have obtained full U.S. international honors and only Noonan has more than ten caps. The numbers are even worse across the board in recent years. In 2006 and 2007, only one non-GA first-rounder – New Zealand's Andrew Boyens – obtained even one international cap for his country.
(One caveat: five non-GA draft picks, including Boyens and Noonan, have made ten or more international appearances. That is a stellar haul considering there are only 24 players total in the pool, but it is worth noting that the four non-Americans in that group feature for smaller countries with fewer choices in their player pools.)
So what does this academic exercise tell us about the upcoming SuperDraft?
The numbers don't indicate a tangible difference between Generation adidas and non-GA players rated as first-round draft picks. Success is a coin flip either way, though GA players are more likely to have a higher ceiling and non-GA players are a slightly better bet to stick around and contribute to the cause long-term. Although the results are just about equal, the empirical data reveals a distinct preference created by external considerations. History suggests clubs will favor roster-exempt options – six or more GA players have heard their name called in the first round in every SuperDraft since 2003 – over other available players in the early stages of the draft.
Talent, as it always does, will serve the primary indicator for when a player is selected. Considering some of the names slated to feature in the SuperDraft, it appears that the decisions won't be easy regardless of the designation a particular player carries.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for
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