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MLS Playoffs: Friday MLS Forecast: Conference Finals
Kyle McCarthy previews the conference finals in the Friday MLS Forecast.
Nov 13, 2009 4:02:47 AM
By Kyle McCarthy
The weight of expectation crushes teams at this time of year.
General consensus suggests the weekend will yield two home victories and one mouth-watering MLS Cup clash between Chicago and Los Angeles. For better or for worse, the potential Fire-Galaxy pairing represents the sexy, en vogue tussle that nearly everyone outside of Texas and Utah wants to see for all of the marbles. With both teams entering the conference finals as the favorites in their own buildings, the expectation is that both sides will find a way to advance.
This apparent fait accompli – despite Los Angeles coach Bruce Arena's best efforts to paint Houston as the favorite this week – frees up Houston (in a role it isn't much accustomed to playing after winning the title in 2006 and 2007) and Real Salt Lake (in a role it will likely play from now until eternity simply because of its location) to approach the match as the unassuming outsider. In these one-off ties, the freedom to play without burden can often fuel the quest for victory.
Will the dreams of many transform into reality or will the anticipated once again fade away into something entirely different? We'll know by the end of the weekend.
The Forecast couldn't keep up its perfect first-leg record last weekend as it picked two upsets when it should have stuck with the home favorites. The minor setback won't dissuade the Forecast from wading into the waters this week to try to right those wrongs by accurately selecting the MLS Cup finalists.
Last week: 1/3 (33%)
Playoffs: 4/6 (66%)
Final tally for the season: 88/195 (45%)
Friday
Houston @ Los Angeles – 11:25p.m. (ESPN2)
Western Conference final
Previous meetings: Houston 0 – Los Angeles 1 (June 28), Los Angeles 0 – Houston 0 (Oct. 18)
The David and Landon show: As much as Arena constructed this edition of the Galaxy around the team concept, Los Angeles wouldn't have reached this point without David Beckham and Landon Donovan to provide the extra dash of quality. Just don't tell Beckham and Donovan that. Although the two stars grab most of the attention, the Galaxy's improved foundation has made all of the difference, according to Donovan.
"When I came back and when David came back, we fit into what was already here,” Donovan told local reporters earlier this week. “That's the sign of a good team. It's not having a few star players come in and change things. It's having a set way of playing and adding pieces to that."
Donovan expands his game: The Galaxy captain has done more than just fit into the side. Donovan has exerted his influence more consistently this season than he has at any other point during his MLS career. Donovan's consistent brilliance has placed him on the cusp of his first Most Valuable Player award and the Galaxy on the edge of a first MLS Cup berth since winning it in 2005.
“He’s more confident (this year),” former San Jose teammate and current Dynamo forward Brian Ching said during a conference call earlier this week. “He’s always been a confident guy, but I think this year he realizes that he can change the game, and he goes out there with that mentality, and he’s carrying that confidence in the forefront. In the past, his confidence may have taken a hit here or there, but I think he’s come to play every single game that he’s stepped on the field this year.”
Consistent Dynamo continually challenges: Year after year, Houston finds a way to grind out results with the same core group of players. After working its way through the CONCACAF Champions League fixture crunch and a difficult first-round tie with Seattle, the Dynamo has placed itself in a position to challenge for a third title in four years.
“We play the same style, and the expectations don’t really change,” Houston coach Dominic Kinnear said in a conference call. “We have made some changes throughout the season as we try to put out the best team on that day. The locker room that we have, with some players getting moved around and sometimes not playing, has been fantastic, and that’s one of the reasons we’ve been so successful.”
Even the veteran teams need a boost: The extra Champions League fixtures took their toll on Kinnear's side and impacted Houston's form in the waning stages of the season. Despite its stumbles (3-3-4 in its final ten outings) to close the regular season, the Dynamo has overcome its late season wobbles at just the right time after overcoming Sounders FC, according to Ching.
“Coming off our two-game series with Seattle, I think the team has a lot of confidence,” Ching said. “We’ve been playing some of our best stuff as we go into the playoffs. We feel pretty confident. We have a team that is very experienced, has been there before, and I think that’s what you saw in the first round with us against Seattle. It’s always a good sign to be playing your best games when the playoffs start.”
Speed merchants cause problems in SoCal: The Galaxy looks solid all over the park, but possesses one glaring and oft-touted weakness: heady central defenders Gregg Berhalter and Omar Gonzalez simply don't cope well with speed. Dominic Oduro's impressive performance in Houston's 1-0 extra time win over Seattle last Sunday showed the Dynamo boasts at least one option to get in behind the Galaxy center backs consistently.
“It does cause concerns for our back line,” Arena said to a group of local reporters. “Our movement as a group is going to have to be right, and we’re going to need to cut down the service.”
On a knife edge: Expect this match to look less like the sloppy first leg draw between Chivas USA and Los Angeles and more like the other three matches in the Western Conference semifinals. Both teams will keep things tight in the back and look to take advantage of the few opportunities that do come their way.
“Defensively they’re as good as any team in the league, and it’s likely going to come down to one or two plays on either side, offensively or defensively, that will decide who goes to MLS Cup,” Donovan said.
One key change for the Dynamo: Houston will likely name Wade Barrett as its starting left back with Mike Chabala out through suspension.
How it might unfold: This is exactly the type of tie that will turn on a mistake or a moment of brilliance. Overtime could even beckon considering the defensive strength of both sides. With the margin so narrow between the two teams, the edge goes to the Galaxy because it can rely Donovan – the best playoff performer in league history – and Beckham to provide the telling bit of quality.
Prediction: Los Angeles heads back to MLS Cup.
Saturday
Real Salt Lake @ Chicago – 8:00p.m. (Fox Soccer Channel)
Eastern Conference final
Previous meetings: Real Salt Lake 0 – Chicago 1 (Aug. 1), Chicago 1 – Real Salt Lake 1 (Sept. 12)
Expecting a Fire onslaught: Real Salt Lake weathered two first-half Guillermo Barros Schelotto goals and stormed back to win 3-2 in Columbus to set up this encounter. In contrast to its dour approach in Utah, the Crew attacked from the outset and allowed RSL plenty of room to get forward in the second leg. Real Salt Lake coach Jason Kreis said he believes Chicago will employ a similar tactic in this one-off tie.
“Columbus at home, they threw things at us and they did attack,” Kreis said. “They were quite successful in doing that and got a 2-0 lead. I expect Chicago to do the same thing. Last week, they played a fantastic game, an offensive game and an upbeat game. It was great. I think it fits us well. We've had trouble trying to deal with teams that sit back and make it hard for us to break them down. We've done very well against teams that just come out and play.”
A tale of two playmakers: One week after dealing with Barros Schelotto, RSL will now have to cope with fellow schemer Cuauhtemoc Blanco. The Mexican international will pose a different set of problems, according to Real Salt Lake defender Nat Borchers.
“I think he's a little different than Schelotto because Schelotto would stay in the center of the park for the most part,” Borchers said. “He would check to the ball and give it a lot to their outside wings. With Blanco, he shows up just about anywhere. It's important for our guys to recognize when he shows up in their areas and to be switched on to make sure that we have cover and we're ready for those crosses he puts in.”
A dangerous visitor: Don't expect Chicago to take RSL lightly. Fire coach Denis Hamlett said the Claret-and-Cobalt will ride a wave of momentum into the match after sealing a berth in the playoffs on the final day and ousting the defending champions in Columbus.
“Real Salt Lake is coming to town and we know they are also a very good team,” Hamlett said. “They got into the playoffs in the last game of the season and then they knocked off the defending champs. They're a team that's full of confidence right now. It'll make for a good game because the winner moves on to MLS Cup.”
Watch out over the top: RSL will look to Javier Morales and Andy Williams to provide service over the top to Robbie Findley and Fabian Espindola from the opening whistle. Morales performed particularly well at Crew Stadium when given the requisite time and space, while Williams has consistently influenced games over the past two months with his vision. Both players will try to spring Findley over the top to take advantage of RSL's speed advantage in its attacking third. Chicago goalkeeper Jon Busch said after the New England victory that his side knows the danger RSL poses with its pace up front.
“It's going to be a battle,” Busch said. “We have to make sure we defend from the top to the bottom first. We'll get our chances, but we have to have team defending.”
Wide concerns: RSL's narrow midfield diamond places plenty of pressure on the Claret-and-Cobalt's fullbacks to cope with Chicago wingers Marco Pappa and Chris Rolfe. Kreis said he has entrusted Chris Wingert and either Tony Beltran (who could miss a second straight game with a quadriceps injury) or Robbie Russell with one-versus-one responsibilities against opposing wide players in recent weeks and they have proven up to the task. Kreis' trust doesn't diminish the size of the challenge the RSL fullbacks at Toyota Park, however.
“When they get the ball and they're going forward, our outside backs are going to have a lot to do,” Borchers said. “They're going to have to be very smart in their challenges. We're just going to have to do what we need to do to prevent them from scoring.”
No respect, I tell ya: RSL certainly has grasped the role of the underdog with both hands. Kreis talked about how his side has confronted skepticism in the media all season, while Nick Rimando told USA Today that "(a)nybody who has this (Salt Lake) badge on this chest, they're not going to get as much media coverage as they should." The perceived slights provide plenty of fuel for a side that has always had enough talent to reach this stage.
“We're putting the pressure on ourselves,” Borchers said. “I don't think anybody else thinks we can get to MLS Cup. We're the ones saying that we can do this. We just need to make sure that we do the right things and play RSL soccer. I know that we've got a lot of very talented players and a lot of guys who buy in to our system. It's special to play with this group. I think this is a good chance to show the league what we're made of.”
One key injury worry for the Fire: Brian McBride limped off against New England with an IT band injury, but expects to play against RSL. Chicago can't afford to see McBride sit on the bench alongside Wilman Conde (pinched sciatic nerve – returned to training on Wednesday) and Gonzalo Segares (left knee).
How it might unfold: Don't expect a carbon copy of the Western Conference final from the night before with both of these sides preferring to play on the front foot. With both teams propelled by their midfield play, the decision may come down who bosses the match in the middle of the park. The slight edge here goes to the Fire with Logan Pause and John Thorrington to close down Morales and Blanco to create chances down the other end by floating all over the field. The Forecast flipflopped a couple of times this week on the winner of this match, but, in the end, learned its lesson from last weekend and decided to stick with the chalk and the sell-out crowd.
Prediction: Chicago sets up the dream final.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSnet.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.
The weight of expectation crushes teams at this time of year.
General consensus suggests the weekend will yield two home victories and one mouth-watering MLS Cup clash between Chicago and Los Angeles. For better or for worse, the potential Fire-Galaxy pairing represents the sexy, en vogue tussle that nearly everyone outside of Texas and Utah wants to see for all of the marbles. With both teams entering the conference finals as the favorites in their own buildings, the expectation is that both sides will find a way to advance.
This apparent fait accompli – despite Los Angeles coach Bruce Arena's best efforts to paint Houston as the favorite this week – frees up Houston (in a role it isn't much accustomed to playing after winning the title in 2006 and 2007) and Real Salt Lake (in a role it will likely play from now until eternity simply because of its location) to approach the match as the unassuming outsider. In these one-off ties, the freedom to play without burden can often fuel the quest for victory.
Will the dreams of many transform into reality or will the anticipated once again fade away into something entirely different? We'll know by the end of the weekend.
The Forecast couldn't keep up its perfect first-leg record last weekend as it picked two upsets when it should have stuck with the home favorites. The minor setback won't dissuade the Forecast from wading into the waters this week to try to right those wrongs by accurately selecting the MLS Cup finalists.
Last week: 1/3 (33%)
Playoffs: 4/6 (66%)
Final tally for the season: 88/195 (45%)
Friday
Houston @ Los Angeles – 11:25p.m. (ESPN2)
Western Conference final
Previous meetings: Houston 0 – Los Angeles 1 (June 28), Los Angeles 0 – Houston 0 (Oct. 18)
The David and Landon show: As much as Arena constructed this edition of the Galaxy around the team concept, Los Angeles wouldn't have reached this point without David Beckham and Landon Donovan to provide the extra dash of quality. Just don't tell Beckham and Donovan that. Although the two stars grab most of the attention, the Galaxy's improved foundation has made all of the difference, according to Donovan.
"When I came back and when David came back, we fit into what was already here,” Donovan told local reporters earlier this week. “That's the sign of a good team. It's not having a few star players come in and change things. It's having a set way of playing and adding pieces to that."
Donovan expands his game: The Galaxy captain has done more than just fit into the side. Donovan has exerted his influence more consistently this season than he has at any other point during his MLS career. Donovan's consistent brilliance has placed him on the cusp of his first Most Valuable Player award and the Galaxy on the edge of a first MLS Cup berth since winning it in 2005.
“He’s more confident (this year),” former San Jose teammate and current Dynamo forward Brian Ching said during a conference call earlier this week. “He’s always been a confident guy, but I think this year he realizes that he can change the game, and he goes out there with that mentality, and he’s carrying that confidence in the forefront. In the past, his confidence may have taken a hit here or there, but I think he’s come to play every single game that he’s stepped on the field this year.”
Consistent Dynamo continually challenges: Year after year, Houston finds a way to grind out results with the same core group of players. After working its way through the CONCACAF Champions League fixture crunch and a difficult first-round tie with Seattle, the Dynamo has placed itself in a position to challenge for a third title in four years.
“We play the same style, and the expectations don’t really change,” Houston coach Dominic Kinnear said in a conference call. “We have made some changes throughout the season as we try to put out the best team on that day. The locker room that we have, with some players getting moved around and sometimes not playing, has been fantastic, and that’s one of the reasons we’ve been so successful.”
Even the veteran teams need a boost: The extra Champions League fixtures took their toll on Kinnear's side and impacted Houston's form in the waning stages of the season. Despite its stumbles (3-3-4 in its final ten outings) to close the regular season, the Dynamo has overcome its late season wobbles at just the right time after overcoming Sounders FC, according to Ching.
“Coming off our two-game series with Seattle, I think the team has a lot of confidence,” Ching said. “We’ve been playing some of our best stuff as we go into the playoffs. We feel pretty confident. We have a team that is very experienced, has been there before, and I think that’s what you saw in the first round with us against Seattle. It’s always a good sign to be playing your best games when the playoffs start.”
Speed merchants cause problems in SoCal: The Galaxy looks solid all over the park, but possesses one glaring and oft-touted weakness: heady central defenders Gregg Berhalter and Omar Gonzalez simply don't cope well with speed. Dominic Oduro's impressive performance in Houston's 1-0 extra time win over Seattle last Sunday showed the Dynamo boasts at least one option to get in behind the Galaxy center backs consistently.
“It does cause concerns for our back line,” Arena said to a group of local reporters. “Our movement as a group is going to have to be right, and we’re going to need to cut down the service.”
On a knife edge: Expect this match to look less like the sloppy first leg draw between Chivas USA and Los Angeles and more like the other three matches in the Western Conference semifinals. Both teams will keep things tight in the back and look to take advantage of the few opportunities that do come their way.
“Defensively they’re as good as any team in the league, and it’s likely going to come down to one or two plays on either side, offensively or defensively, that will decide who goes to MLS Cup,” Donovan said.
One key change for the Dynamo: Houston will likely name Wade Barrett as its starting left back with Mike Chabala out through suspension.
How it might unfold: This is exactly the type of tie that will turn on a mistake or a moment of brilliance. Overtime could even beckon considering the defensive strength of both sides. With the margin so narrow between the two teams, the edge goes to the Galaxy because it can rely Donovan – the best playoff performer in league history – and Beckham to provide the telling bit of quality.
Prediction: Los Angeles heads back to MLS Cup.
Saturday
Real Salt Lake @ Chicago – 8:00p.m. (Fox Soccer Channel)
Eastern Conference final
Previous meetings: Real Salt Lake 0 – Chicago 1 (Aug. 1), Chicago 1 – Real Salt Lake 1 (Sept. 12)
Expecting a Fire onslaught: Real Salt Lake weathered two first-half Guillermo Barros Schelotto goals and stormed back to win 3-2 in Columbus to set up this encounter. In contrast to its dour approach in Utah, the Crew attacked from the outset and allowed RSL plenty of room to get forward in the second leg. Real Salt Lake coach Jason Kreis said he believes Chicago will employ a similar tactic in this one-off tie.
“Columbus at home, they threw things at us and they did attack,” Kreis said. “They were quite successful in doing that and got a 2-0 lead. I expect Chicago to do the same thing. Last week, they played a fantastic game, an offensive game and an upbeat game. It was great. I think it fits us well. We've had trouble trying to deal with teams that sit back and make it hard for us to break them down. We've done very well against teams that just come out and play.”
A tale of two playmakers: One week after dealing with Barros Schelotto, RSL will now have to cope with fellow schemer Cuauhtemoc Blanco. The Mexican international will pose a different set of problems, according to Real Salt Lake defender Nat Borchers.
“I think he's a little different than Schelotto because Schelotto would stay in the center of the park for the most part,” Borchers said. “He would check to the ball and give it a lot to their outside wings. With Blanco, he shows up just about anywhere. It's important for our guys to recognize when he shows up in their areas and to be switched on to make sure that we have cover and we're ready for those crosses he puts in.”
A dangerous visitor: Don't expect Chicago to take RSL lightly. Fire coach Denis Hamlett said the Claret-and-Cobalt will ride a wave of momentum into the match after sealing a berth in the playoffs on the final day and ousting the defending champions in Columbus.
“Real Salt Lake is coming to town and we know they are also a very good team,” Hamlett said. “They got into the playoffs in the last game of the season and then they knocked off the defending champs. They're a team that's full of confidence right now. It'll make for a good game because the winner moves on to MLS Cup.”
Watch out over the top: RSL will look to Javier Morales and Andy Williams to provide service over the top to Robbie Findley and Fabian Espindola from the opening whistle. Morales performed particularly well at Crew Stadium when given the requisite time and space, while Williams has consistently influenced games over the past two months with his vision. Both players will try to spring Findley over the top to take advantage of RSL's speed advantage in its attacking third. Chicago goalkeeper Jon Busch said after the New England victory that his side knows the danger RSL poses with its pace up front.
“It's going to be a battle,” Busch said. “We have to make sure we defend from the top to the bottom first. We'll get our chances, but we have to have team defending.”
Wide concerns: RSL's narrow midfield diamond places plenty of pressure on the Claret-and-Cobalt's fullbacks to cope with Chicago wingers Marco Pappa and Chris Rolfe. Kreis said he has entrusted Chris Wingert and either Tony Beltran (who could miss a second straight game with a quadriceps injury) or Robbie Russell with one-versus-one responsibilities against opposing wide players in recent weeks and they have proven up to the task. Kreis' trust doesn't diminish the size of the challenge the RSL fullbacks at Toyota Park, however.
“When they get the ball and they're going forward, our outside backs are going to have a lot to do,” Borchers said. “They're going to have to be very smart in their challenges. We're just going to have to do what we need to do to prevent them from scoring.”
No respect, I tell ya: RSL certainly has grasped the role of the underdog with both hands. Kreis talked about how his side has confronted skepticism in the media all season, while Nick Rimando told USA Today that "(a)nybody who has this (Salt Lake) badge on this chest, they're not going to get as much media coverage as they should." The perceived slights provide plenty of fuel for a side that has always had enough talent to reach this stage.
“We're putting the pressure on ourselves,” Borchers said. “I don't think anybody else thinks we can get to MLS Cup. We're the ones saying that we can do this. We just need to make sure that we do the right things and play RSL soccer. I know that we've got a lot of very talented players and a lot of guys who buy in to our system. It's special to play with this group. I think this is a good chance to show the league what we're made of.”
One key injury worry for the Fire: Brian McBride limped off against New England with an IT band injury, but expects to play against RSL. Chicago can't afford to see McBride sit on the bench alongside Wilman Conde (pinched sciatic nerve – returned to training on Wednesday) and Gonzalo Segares (left knee).
How it might unfold: Don't expect a carbon copy of the Western Conference final from the night before with both of these sides preferring to play on the front foot. With both teams propelled by their midfield play, the decision may come down who bosses the match in the middle of the park. The slight edge here goes to the Fire with Logan Pause and John Thorrington to close down Morales and Blanco to create chances down the other end by floating all over the field. The Forecast flipflopped a couple of times this week on the winner of this match, but, in the end, learned its lesson from last weekend and decided to stick with the chalk and the sell-out crowd.
Prediction: Chicago sets up the dream final.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSnet.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.
For more on Major League Soccer, visit Goal.com's MLS page.
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