McCarthy's Musings: Breaking Through The MLS Wild Card Tiebreakers

By Kyle McCarthy

Working through tiebreakers makes my head spin. One glance at the lengthy list of tiebreakers compiled here should be more than enough to figure out why.

In the Monday MLS Breakdown, I took a brief look at the possible Wild Card scenarios without going into much detail. The mind-numbing detail can still be found in the lengthy list of tiebreakers, but I've boiled that page down into five relatively digestible points.

1. If Chicago wants to finish second in the Eastern Conference, it better pick up at least a point tomorrow night or hope D.C. United draws or loses.

The simplest way for the Fire to seal second spot in the East and home-field advantage in the first round involves getting a positive result when Chivas USA visits Toyota Park tomorrow night. If Chicago collapses at home, United is well-suited to finish second in the East with a victory in Kansas City on Saturday. Only a four-way tie between Chicago, D.C., New England and Toronto on 42 points would keep D.C. from second spot with a win – in that instance, Toronto FC would emerge as the two seed.  A United loss would ensure the Fire goes into the playoffs as the second seed in the East regardless of its result on Thursday night because Chicago holds an edge in all possible tiebreakers over New England and Toronto FC. Those tiebreaker edges would make it quite difficult for the Fire to miss out on the playoffs even with a loss to the Red-and-White, but a Colorado victory, a D.C. victory and a FC Dallas victory coupled with losses or draws by New England and Toronto FC would do the trick.

2. Of the four teams starting the weekend on 39 points, Toronto FC is in the best overall spot and stands to gain the most in the unlikely event that every team pulls through.

As mentioned in the previous paragraph, TFC would take second place in the Eastern Conference in the event of a four-way tie between Chicago (in the event of a loss to Chivas USA), D.C. United and New England. Even if Chicago wins or draws and Colorado wins at Real Salt Lake, the Reds would still stand to benefit if FC Dallas joins D.C. and N.E. in the win column because they would win a similar four-way tiebreaker on 42 points to grab the final playoff spot. TFC could also squeak into the playoffs in a three-way tiebreaker with FCD and either D.C. or New England. TFC would also win any two-way tiebreaker with D.C. or New England because it holds the season series edge over both United and the Revs. The basic scenario: if TFC wins in New York, it wants as many of its 39-point counterparts to win (or lose) as possible (and Colorado to lose or draw) so it doesn't have to face and lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with FC Dallas.

3. Real Salt Lake is in great position if the line rests at 40 points

It will take an RSL victory over Colorado and a healthy dose of fortune pertaining to the results of the four teams on 39 points entering the weekend, but the Claret-and-Cobalt is in great shape if a spate of draws occurs. With a two-goal win over Colorado on Saturday night, RSL would hold the edge in every two-way tiebreaker,  three- and four-way tiebreakers involving every team except Toronto FC, the five-way tiebreaker and the six-way tiebreaker. Moral of the story for RSL fans: root for everyone on 39 points to lose, but especially root for TFC not to draw.

4. Colorado will almost certainly need to beat Real Salt Lake to make the playoffs.

This follows hand-in-hand with RSL's strength on the tiebreakers. The Rapids can clinch the seventh seed with a victory and crush the dreams of a couple of those teams resting on 39 points in the process, but they face almost certain elimination with a draw or loss. A draw would leave Colorado on 41 points and out of the playoffs if two of the four teams on 39 points muster a victory. A loss would leave the Rapids on 40 points and tied with RSL, which would earn the head-to-head tie-breaker if it won by two or more goals. There likely aren't going to be two spots (or even one) available at 40 points, so the Rapids would need to keep RSL to a one-goal win to earn the tiebreaker on Total Goals and pray no other team joins them on 40 points. Winning the game at Rio Tinto Stadium would be a lot simpler, but that won't be any small feat either.

5. New England should hope for some help tomorrow and Saturday night before its must-win game in Columbus on Sunday.

These are the tiebreakers New England has in its favor as the final weekend approaches: a head-to-head battle against D.C. United and a three-way deadlock with D.C. and FC Dallas. New England really needs a Chicago win or draw, a Colorado draw or loss and a Toronto FC loss or draw to pave the way to the postseason. A Colorado victory would make life particularly difficult on the Revs because they need as many wild card spots available as possible and a Rapids victory would leave just one open berth. The situation worsens if the Revs stumble to a tie. The tiebreakers basically create no viable way for the Revs to advance with a draw unless Colorado wins and everyone on 39 points (or everyone but D.C. and United would have to draw in Kansas City) loses, so it's win or go home for the Revs unless something really, really freaky happens. One small factor in the Revs' favor: they'll know exactly what result they'll need to book a playoff spot before heading onto the field at Crew Stadium early Sunday evening.

Around The League

- Chicago concludes its regular-season slate on Thursday night as it hosts Chivas USA (8:00p.m., ESPN2).

- As discussed at length in the header, the Fire enters the game with a simple task: draw or win in order to lock up second spot in the Eastern Conference.

- This match represents Chivas USA's game-in-hand and a victory would go a long way towards sealing the Western Conference title ahead of Sunday's date with Houston.

- Chicago will hope to have Wilman Conde (right hip contusion) and Gonzalo Segares (left MCL tear) available, but John Thorrington (athletic pubalgia) and Tim Ward (left metatarsal fracture) are still ruled out.

- Paulo Nagamura (left foot contusion) is the most important name on the lengthy list of Chivas USA's ailments, but the influential midfielder is listed as probable for the match.

- Two Eastern Conference teams picked up valuable results in CONCACAF Champions League action on Tuesday night with one team booking its spot in the quarterfinals.

- Emilio Renteria's 74th minute goal handed Columbus a 1-1 draw at Puerto Rico and sealed the Crew's place in the next round. Crew coach Robert Warzycha fielded a strong starting XI in search of the required point and sent on Renteria and Steven Lenhart in the second half to help grab the equalizer after Noah Delgado opened the scoring on 34 minutes.

- D.C. United kept its hopes of advancing to the quarterfinals alive with a 1-1 draw at Toluca. Chris Pontius opened the scoring after six minutes with a sumptuous volley, but United's blended cast of first-teamers and reserves had to settle for a draw when Israel Lopez converted a 62nd penalty to give Toluca's reserve-laden team a point.

- “It’s tough because it came down to the ref deciding the game,” Pontius said. “We played our hearts out. It’s a difficult stadium to play in and it’s unfortunate that we did not come out with the result that we wanted. When you play that hard for 90 minutes you want to win and I thought we deserved to win today.”

- United's draw is only the second point collected by a MLS team on its travels to Mexico (0-17-2). It will go for naught unless Marathon (Honduras) loses or draws at Group B cellar dwellers San Juan Jabloteh on Thursday.

- Houston faces Isidro Metapan (El Salvador) in its final Group A match on Wednesday night (10:00p.m., Fox Soccer Channel) knowing that it needs to win and hope Pachuca defeats Arabe Unido (Panama) at home in order to advance to the quarterfinals.

- Charleston assistant and former New England defender Mark Watson has linked up with the Revolution coaching staff until the end of the season. Watson will help to temporarily fill the void created by Paul Mariner's departure to take over as head coach at Plymouth Argyle. New England plans to undertake a full search to replace Mariner after the season concludes.

Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSnet.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com and follow him on Twitter by clicking here.

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