McCarthy's Musings: Twenty Down, Ten To Go

Now the fun starts. 

With most teams peering at a schedule that boasts ten or fewer games, the 2009 MLS season has finally reached the business end. The games increase in importance with each passing week as the 13 teams (more on that later) with serious playoff hopes vie for the meager eight spots on offer.  

Before moving on to the so-called two-thirds season review, here's a glance at the categories I used to classify the teams over the first third of the season: 

Is the season over yet or is it just our supporters wishing it were so?: FC Dallas and San Jose

Big market bummers: Los Angeles and New York

Downtrodden with a chance of frisky: Columbus, New England and Real Salt Lake

The median: Colorado

Worth a punt: Kansas City and Toronto FC

The challengers: D.C. United, Houston and Seattle

The favorites: Chicago and Chivas USA 

Absolutely Wretched

New York 

If things don't perk up over the next few weeks, New York may just set a new MLS record for futility. ... The injuries haven't helped, but all the knocks can't explain why a reasonably talented roster has tanked so miserably. ... How have heads not rolled at this point? ... The big bosses in Austria are lucky RBNY fans haven't flown across the pond and collected outside the parent company's offices to protest this dreadful campaign. 

Poor

San Jose 

Frank Yallop sure hasn't had a great time of it over the past few years, has he? ... San Jose just isn't getting enough from enough of its key players to mount a playoff push. ... Ryan Johnson isn't among those who need to do more. ... The playoffs are a longshot at this point, so it's time to start building for next year. ... A centerback and a goalscorer should top the shopping list. 

The potential spoiler

FC Dallas 

Who is this Jeff Cunningham and what did he do with the old one who struggled over the past few seasons? ... FC Dallas doesn't have the defensive chops – even with Dario Sala back in goal – to make a sustained playoff push, but there are attacking parts in place to cause fits for opposing teams. ... David Ferreira has started to settle into the league and has improved considerably over a rough start. ... The Hoops are best equipped to make life difficult for the teams above them and develop their young talent for 2010. 

What happened?

Chivas USA, Kansas City 

The answer in both cases is simple: not enough goals. ... Chivas USA has looked terrible over the past two months. ... Is there a way back for them? ... It's tough to see one right now (even with the games in hand) unless Ante Razov can return soon and stay healthy for the run-in. ... Sometimes, there are just too many injuries to overcome even with games in hand. … Kansas City already fired its coach, so there isn't much left to do but hope that the players on board are good enough to go on a run. ... It simply won't happen if Jimmy Conrad isn't healthy; the defense isn't strong enough without him. 

Did they leave it too late?

New England, Real Salt Lake 

Both of these teams entered the season with legitimate playoff aspirations and enough talent to accomplish those dreams, but the campaign to date hasn't matched those expectations. ... New England really, really misses Taylor Twellman. ... The remaining key players can't seem to stay healthy at the same time. ... The defense – backstopped by an unheralded yet fine season from goalkeeper Matt Reis – should hold out, but can the offense score enough goals? ... Those two games in hand – combined with  good home form – might be just enough. ... Real Salt Lake needs to get points on the road. ... Moral victories from decent road performances won't be enough at this point. ... Even one win and a couple of draws outside Utah would be enough with RSL's formidable home form. ... It says here that at least one of these two teams will scrape into the playoffs somehow. 

Watch out for the trap door

Colorado, D.C. United, Toronto FC 

Colorado would probably rank higher on the totem pole, but the Rapids didn't do enough with a long stretch of home games. ... Conor Casey and Omar Cummings will provide enough at the sharp end, while the defense is just about good enough. ... The Rapids could certainly make their occasional surprise trip to the Western Conference final this year so long as they can stay healthy. ... If Casey or Cummings goes down, it could be time to make tee times. ...  D.C. United has a killer schedule over the next month and may not emerge from it in good playoff shape. ... Sure feels like a repeat of last year waiting to happen, doesn't it? ... If United does fall out of the playoff hunt, the defense will almost certainly bear the brunt of the blame. ... Over the course of the season, United has yet to find the consistency it needs to be one of the league's elite teams. ... United probably deserves a playoff berth on the whole, but the postseason may end up slipping away because of the scheduling issues. ...  Toronto FC faces the same defensive dilemma that United does. ... The current centerback pairing might get them to the playoffs, but it won't be enough to get them very far. ... Dwayne De Rosario will play a large role in determining whether this team makes its playoff bow or ends another year in frustration. Don't bet against him. 

Safely in the playoffs

Chicago 

Chicago watched its MLS Cup hopes take a serious and perhaps irreparable hit when Brian McBride went down with his shoulder injury. ... Tough to sum up what McBride does for a team in a few words, but the phrase “more than anyone notices” works well. ... The Fire still has the talent to make a deep playoff run and lift the trophy, but the margin for error has decreased significantly. ... How much will Cuauhtemoc Blanco have left in the tank come playoff time after a long summer?  

The two teams built for the playoffs

Los Angeles, Seattle 

Ten games ago, Los Angeles showed faint glimmers of transforming into the team it is now. ... Landon Donovan is the best player in MLS right now and he has a history of taking over in the playoffs. ... Add in a disciplined system, a significantly improved back line and a hot goalkeeper and there are plenty of ways the Galaxy can beat teams come playoff time. ... Seattle presents headaches in a short series. ... Kasey Keller, Freddie Ljungberg and Fredy Montero are matchwinners when it counts. ... Like Los Angeles, Seattle can be broken down in the wide areas. ... Don't forget about the Sigi Schmid factor, but don't sleep on the lack of impact players off the bench, either. ... Anyone want to bet against Seattle winning at Qwest Field in the playoffs?  

The favorites

Columbus, Houston 

Columbus deserves more publicity after a stellar mid-summer run. ... The Crew's performance without Guillermo Barros Schelotto has reminded everyone that this bunch is more than just a one-man team. ... When the Argentine playmaker returns, the Crew will add some creativity to the graft that continues to grind out results. ... The big question: how will the CONCACAF Champions League impact them heading down the stretch? ... Houston needs to navigate through the extra Champions League fixtures better than it did last year. ... The Dynamo has already shown signs of fatigue, but the squad is a bit deeper than last year's version, though injuries have stripped away some of that depth. ... With Ricardo Clark and Stuart Holden out-of-contract at the end of the season, this could shape up as the one last run before Dominic Kinnear has to reload in the center of the park. ... Picked Houston to win it all before the season and the Dynamo hasn't done anything to change that prediction. 

Around The League 

If you came looking for your usual dose of Around the League, you won't find it this week. With New England off until next Thursday's trip to Seattle, I'm on vacation at an undisclosed, waterfront location in southeastern Massachusetts this week. Living life without wireless Internet has its pitfalls and this is one of them. One of the perks? Stepping away from the keyboard for a few days. 

If you're fearing for the Friday MLS Forecast, your worries are misplaced. You'll see my picks on Friday, though perhaps in a different format than usual.