Friday MLS Forecast: Week Six

By Kyle McCarthy

Save your money, Josh from California.

I spotted the $5 parlay you played last week with my predictions in last week's comments. I failed you. Your jackpot will never arrive. But I'm thankful that you wished me luck with my predictions despite the 1-in-2187 odds of a perfect slate.

Josh's plea – along with a couple of helpful e-mails from readers – forced me to flip through the last few weeks just to see how well I've done in the prediction business.

The answer: My skills are not parlay worthy.

Week Five: Three of seven

Week Four: Three of seven

Week Three: Three of seven

Week Two: Two of seven

The good news? Others struggle just as much as I do with these predictions. Alexi Lalas and Rob Stone posted their predictions last week on the Chicago Tribune's Red Card blog and managed two correct picks. Tribune reporter Luis Arroyave has averaged three correct results this season in his weekly prediction column and only three of ten weekly prediction compilations on his blog have posted higher than three correct results in a week.

The moral of the story as you read through this week's Forecast? Don't expect perfection unless you think this is the one week out of the next 70 or so seasons that I'll achieve it.

Last week: 3/7 (43%)

For the season: 11/28 (39%)

Saturday

Chicago @ Columbus – 7:00p.m. (Fox Soccer Channel)

The Crew really needed its bye last weekend to regroup after a difficult start to the season. Getting Robbie Rogers and Chad Marshall back is a huge boost to a team that needs a positive result to head in the right direction. Chicago hasn't enthralled this season, but it's tough to argue with the results. Look for the Fire to post another one at Crew Stadium.

Prediction: Draw.

New England @ Real Salt Lake – 9:00p.m.

Beating the traveling Revs takes some doing because they are particularly difficult to break down. Shalrie Joseph and Jeff Larentowicz dominate in central midfield, which allows the makeshift back four to do its job. But the Revs haven't possessed the ball well and RSL is the type of team that can punish them when given ample possession. Javier Morales will find his space restricted, so the onus will fall on others to figure out a way to breach the Revs. This might be the game where New England finally suffers its first loss.

(Friday afternoon note: Steve Ralston didn't travel to Salt Lake City after suffering a right adductor strain in training on Tuesday.)

Prediction: RSL win.

Los Angeles @ Colorado – 9:30p.m.

I wasn't predisposed to giving the struggling Galaxy a point in this game. One look at the stats reinforced that inclination. Los Angeles is 7-15-3 all-time in Colorado, without a win in Colorado since 2003 and without a goal in three meetings at Dick's Sporting Goods Park. Add in the two Colorado victories (one in the league, one in a U.S. Open Cup play-in game) over the Galaxy earlier this month and I'd say the Rapids have the Galaxy's number.

Prediction: Colorado win.

FC Dallas @ Chivas USA – 10:30p.m.

Interesting dynamic here. Chivas USA is the better team, but Preki's side limply submitted in Toronto on Wednesday night and had to make a cross-continent flight to do it. The Goats need more from the invisible Sacha Kljestan in this one. FCD picked up its first win last weekend, but needed a fortunate late penalty decision to seal it after coughing up a two-goal lead. Look for the home side to grind out yet another result.

Prediction: Chivas USA win.

San Jose @ Seattle – 10:30p.m.

Let me see if I follow this storyline correctly. Seattle loses at home to Kansas City while down its starting goalkeeper for the majority of the game and loses at table-topping Chivas USA and suddenly the wheels are starting to fall off? An overboard reaction, at least in this pundit's eyes. San Jose isn't playing well enough to go into Qwest Field and leave with points right now.

Prediction: Seattle win.

Sunday

D.C. United @ New York – 3:00p.m. (Telefutura)

Instead of predicting matches each week, I should try to predict Juan Carlos Osorio's lineup. If you think I struggle with picking winners, watch and see how poorly I'd do trying to figure out Osorio's scattershot team selection. Just ask Matthew Mbuta, who went from out of the matchday squad to starting on the right wing in last night's loss in Kansas City. At least Osorio won't have to worry about picking red card specialist Carlos Johnson for this one.

Prediction: Draw.

Kansas City @ Toronto FC – 5:00p.m.

Four matches unbeaten for the Wizards, but that streak's going to end here. Kansas City won 1-0 at home last night against New York to leap to the top of the Eastern Conference for the moment. The reward? A trip to BMO Field with the influential Jack Jewsbury very questionable after picking up a concussion in the victory. TFC head coach John Carver should persist with the three-pronged attack (plus Amado Guevara in an advanced midfield role) he chose on Wednesday night to try to breach the recently impenetrable Wizards defense (three shutouts in four matches).

Prediction: Toronto FC win

Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSnet.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com.