Monday MLS Breakdown: Western Conference Preview

Goal.com's Kyle McCarthy finishes off his two-part MLS preview with the Western Conference and anoints Houston as his champion-in-waiting.

Mar 16, 2009 11:12:05 AM

Teams

By Kyle McCarthy

Houston Dynamo, MLS Cup 2009 champion.

In light of last year's predictive stumbles, this pick feels safe. As safe as a weaker Dynamo squad than the 2008 version who lost to New York in the first round of the playoffs can make a pundit feel.

Why Houston?

For one thing, it's difficult to choose a team out of the Eastern Conference. Flip a coin between Chicago and Columbus right now because that's the only way to choose between them. Plus, there are the dangerous teams lurking in the playoff wilderness, ready to spring an upset at any time. Difficult to pick a MLS Cup champion from the East with such inherent peril.

For another, Houston still looks like the class of the Western Conference. Dwayne De Rosario – yes, the one who was more off than on in 2008 – and Nate Jaqua may have departed, but that doesn't mean the rest of the Dynamo squad left town over the winter. Brian Ching, Ricardo Clark and Bobby Boswell are still in town. Brad Davis and Brian Mullan will still patrol the wings. Pat Onstad remains a solid if ancient goalkeeper. Real Salt Lake, Colorado and Chivas USA might get there at some point this season, but Houston has the clear edge right now.

Those with short memories forget Houston may have been just as good, if not better, than Columbus last season. A hectic schedule including SuperLiga and the group stages of the CONCACAF Champions League derailed the Dynamo's title quest and softened them up for the Red Bulls disaster.

Are there questions in Houston? Absolutely. Ching needs some offensive help unless Kei Kamara transformed into a ten-goal striker during the winter. Stuart Holden will have to fill De Rosario's shoes and provide some creativity. And, as Atlante showed in the CONCACAF Champions League quarterfinals, those Dynamo fullbacks have very little pace.

For now, those concerns are on the back burner. Houston is the pick. May the consequences of this selection find me at season's end.

Projected order of finish:

1. Houston*
2. Real Salt Lake*
3. Colorado*
4. Chivas USA*
5. Seattle
6. San Jose
7. FC Dallas
8. Los Angeles

WC Semifinals: Houston over Chivas USA, Real Salt Lake over Colorado
WC Final: Houston over Real Salt Lake

MLS Cup: Houston over Chicago

1. Houston
Key arrivals: Tally Hall (G), Julius James (D)
Key departures: Patrick Ianni (D), Dwayne De Rosario (M), Nate Jaqua (F)
Key player: Brian Ching (F)
Key question: Does one departure impact the whole?

It's fairly clear from the header why the Dynamo can lift a third crown in four seasons. One scenario in which it won't happen: James fails to take over from the injured Eddie Robinson at the back and the rather stout defense starts to crack. Given Robinson's relative struggles in 2008, James will have a reasonable chance to plug that hole. Any defensive fissure could severely impact the chances of a Dynamo squad that doesn't look like it will score a surplus of goals.

2. Real Salt Lake
Key arrivals: Jean Alexandre (M), Ned Grabavoy (M)
Key departures: Nathan Sturgis (D), Dema Kovalenko (M), Fabian Espindola (F), Kenny Deuchar (F)
Key player: Javier Morales
Key question: Is it sharp enough at the sharp end?

The Lakers figured out a formula that worked last season with the two physical center backs, the two aggressive fullbacks, the diamond in midfield and the rotating cast of strikers. Aside from the projected signing of the fitness-challenged striker Luis Miguel Escalada, RSL has stuck with the same core of players. RSL's solidity should be enough to keep them in the running over the long haul. The lack of a consistent goal scorer – unless Robbie Findley or Yura Movsisyan reach that level – may stunt RSL's progress into the upper echelons of MLS.

3. Colorado
Key arrivals: Matt Pickens (G), Ivan Guerrero (D/M), Ty Harden (D), Scott Palguta (D)
Key departures: Bouna Coundoul (G), Facundo Erpen (D), Mike Petke (D), Jose Burciaga Jr. (D), Christian Gomez (M), Tom McManus (F)
Key player: Conor Casey (F)
Key question: Is this the year where flattery avoids deception?

The Rapids have quietly gone about reshaping their squad during the offseason. The results have led to a deep back line, a reasonably deep midfield and a somewhat sparse set of strikers. No big signing captures the imagination, but Gary Smith has assembled a quick, athletic and no-nonsense side that compares favorably with other Western Conference teams. The one caveat attached to this placement: burly target striker Casey must stay healthy and stay on form until the Rapids can bolster the front line (Jason Euell, perhaps?) in the summer transfer window.

4. Chivas USA
Key arrivals: Ante Jazic (D), Michael Lahoud (M), Eduardo Lillingston (F)
Key departures: Claudio Suarez (D), Alex Zotinca (D), Raphael Wicky (M), Francisco Mendoza (M), Roberto Nurse (F)
Key player: Sacha Kljestan (M)
Key question: Is it possible to make plays without your playmaker?

That's the question Preki hopes he won't have to ask. Kljestan will likely leave for Europe in the next year and Preki can't afford to see his one creative influence leave mid-season. Depth is a problem in the back and up front, which is particularly worrisome for a team that can't seem to stay off the treatment table. Possible signings Diego Scotti and Abel Xavier might bolster that depth, but Chivas doesn't have a particularly solid look from back to front as presently constituted. Ante Razov and Maykel Galindo will have to stay healthy to keep the Goats scoring regularly and no reasonable observer can expect that at this point.

5. Seattle
Key arrivals: Kasey Keller (G), Jhon Kennedy Hurtado (D), Patrick Ianni (D), Brad Evans (M), Freddie Ljungberg (M), Sebastien Le Toux (M), Fredy Montero (F), Nate Jaqua (F)
Key departures: Khano Smith (M)
Key player: Montero
Key question: Can this expansion team thrive where others have failed?

The past three expansion teams shared these traits in common during their inaugural seasons: they couldn't score a goal a game and they couldn't stop the opposition from scoring almost twice per game. Sounders FC should rectify the first quandary with Montero, an impressive young Colombian striker, leading the line and Le Toux and Ljungberg providing creative impetus. The defensive problem may prove more difficult to crack with the personnel on hand. Even with a rather ragtag back line, Sounders FC can rely on Sigi Schmid to throw an organized team on the field and Kasey Keller to stop a few shots that he probably shouldn't. That might be enough to keep Seattle in the playoff hunt far longer than anyone expects.

6. San Jose
Key arrivals: Chris Leitch (D), Bobby Convey (M), Quincy Amarikwa (F), Pablo Campos (F), Cam Weaver (F)
Key departures: James Riley (D), Francisco Lima (M), Ronnie O'Brien (M), Scott Sealy (F)
Key player: Convey
Key question: Can committees score goals?

Curious decision by the Quakes to eschew finding a proven goal scorer and opt for multiple young and unproven strikers with a playoff berth well within reach. General manager John Doyle said he figures that at least one of his young strikers will come good and bang in a few goals. If the Quakes can score, they can mount a playoff charge with this defense. San Jose is relatively solid with the underrated Jason Hernandez leading a stout back line and Joe Cannon still stopping shots with the best of them.

7. FC Dallas
Key arrivals: Daniel Torres (D), Steve Purdy (D), Dave van den Bergh (M), David Ferreira (M)
Key departures: Duilio Davino (D), Adrian Serioux (D), Victor Sikora (M), Dominic Oduro (F)
Key player: Pablo Ricchetti (M)
Key question: Does a rudderless ship have direction?

On the surface, FC Dallas made moves to push forward in 2009. Van den Bergh excelled in New York last season, while Ferreira is a Colombian international playmaker who should suit FCD reasonably well once fit. Look closer and trouble arises. Aside from Ricchetti in the holding midfield role, there is no defensive identity on the team. Underwhelming retreads who once played for the assistant coach (Torres) and promising youngsters (Purdy) won't cut it for a Hoops squad in need of defensive leadership. In his first full year, Schellas Hyndman still has skeptics to quell and he may not have the squad to do it.

8. Los Angeles
Key arrivals: Donovan Ricketts (G), A.J. DeLaGarza (D), Todd Dunivant (D), Omar Gonzalez (D), Tony Sanneh (D), Dema Kovalenko (M), Stefani Miglioranzi (M), Mike Magee (F), Jovan Kirovski (F)
Key departures: Steve Cronin (G), Ante Jazic (D), Mike Randolph (D), Greg Vanney (D), Brandon McDonald (M), Peter Vagenas (M)
Key player: Landon Donovan (M/F)
Key question: Will old faces bring new successes?

When Bruce Arena went shopping this winter, he went with what he knew. From familiar foes (Ricketts) to former players (Dunivant, Magee, Kirovski and Sanneh) to ACC lineage (DeLaGarza and Gonzalez), Arena picked up players who were known quantities. All of the changes will make the Galaxy better than they were last season, but will not likely give them enough to challenge for a playoff berth. The primary reason is once again a flimsy and young back line backstopped by a shaky goalkeeper. Some things just can't change overnight.

Around the League

- Kansas City striker Adam Cristman suffered a left foot injury and will miss “a couple of months,” according to an interview with Wizards coach Curt Onalfo in the Kansas City Star.

- Los Angeles goalkeeper Donovan Ricketts picked up a hamstring injury in Saturday's 1-1 draw with Chicago in Tempe, Arizona. Ricketts suffered a similar injury during the Pan-Pacific Championship. If Ricketts isn't ready for the opener against D.C. United on Sunday, Josh Saunders will likely get the nod.

- Santino Quaranta will miss D.C. United's opener in Los Angeles on Saturday, but hopes to return in time for United's second game against Chicago on Mar. 28, The Washington Post reports.

- Eric Brunner will join Columbus, assuming a transfer deal gets done between the Crew and USL-1 club Miami F.C. The Crew have apparently sealed a deal with New York to acquire Brunner's MLS rights.

- Joe Zewe, an American who had been playing in Denmark for the past few seasons, joined Real Salt Lake on trial during the Carolina Challenge Cup. In case you keep track of friendly competitions, RSL beat Toronto FC to hoist the cup.

- Former USL Sounder Zach Scott has signed with Sounders FC, according to The Maui News. Scott is the first public high school player from Maui to reach MLS.

- Taylor Twellman joined his New England teammates in North Carolina at the tail end of last week. His primary contribution: a turn as the narrator of a staff race. The video is well worth six minutes of your Web browsing time.

- In last week's Eastern Conference preview, I omitted Albert Celades, Carlos Johnson and Alfredo Pacheco as positives from the New York preview. There was a reason: none of the three were signed when I submitted the preview. Only Celades is officially in the fold right now, though Johnson and Pacheco should join him soon enough. Johnson and Pacheco will give the Red Bulls two pretty decent fullbacks once signed. It says here that their arrivals won't cure the problems in central defense where Mike Petke plus one of Kevin Goldthwaite, Andrew Boyens or Carlos Mendes likely isn't enough to back stop a serious playoff run. Even if it worked well enough in 2008.

Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSnet.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com.

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